The Roar’s AFL expert tips and predictions: Round 16

Josh Elliott Editor

By Josh Elliott, Josh Elliott is a Roar Editor

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    Last week’s results have thrown the league into chaos a bit and looking ahead at the fixture, the question of who makes the top eight is set to evolve week-by-week.

    There’s plenty of games in Round 16 that will shape finals, so let’s take a look.

    Sydney vs Geelong on Thursday night is a cracking way to start the round. The Swans want to bounce back from last week’s loss, while Geelong desperately need to avoid a three-game losing streak.

    The simple thing is that Sydney’s form has been better, and this one is on home turf for the Swans. I can’t go past them.

    Richmond versus a resurgent Adelaide looks like a potentially promising encounter also but I’m not sure if there’s a side in the league I’d consider tipping against Richmond at the MCG.

    The Western Bulldogs have played a really impressive fortnight of football but I reckon Hawthorn’s combination of an emotional week off the field and a desperate need to push for finals will give them reason enough to win.

    Essendon are in a scenario where they simply must keep winning and did so last week. A wounded Collingwood at the MCG does offer them some chance to keep it up… but I’ll stick with the Pies.

    Both West Coast and GWS are missing key players through injury right now. GWS managed to navigate that successfully last week, while West Coast didn’t.

    Still, with the home ground advantage and a vocal crowd, I’m going to back the Eagles in to get the win in this one.

    Brisbane, Port Adelaide, Melbourne and North are my other tips for the week. Lock of the week has to be the Dees to get back on the horse versus a Fremantle side with no Nat Fyfe and no Aaron Sandilands.

    Lock of the week from the Simpsons

    Adrian Polykandrites
    Geelong, Richmond, Brisbane, Port Adelaide, Hawthorn, Melbourne, North Melbourne, Collingwood, GWS

    After losing to the Dogs, the Cats are in real danger of missing the eight for the second time since 2015. I think they’ll cause an upset in the game of the round to kick things off.

    Brisbane will notch their third win of the season at home against the Blues, but this should be a fun match.

    Port will be too strong for the Saints at Adelaide Oval. Here’s hoping St Kilda play as boldly as they did last week against the Demons.

    If the Dogs have really turned a corner, as the past fortnight suggests, then they should take it right up to the Hawks, but I’m tipping Hawthorn to bounce back after a disappointing loss to GWS.

    Melbourne will take out the frustrations of their loss to St Kilda on the undermanned Dockers in Darwin and North will pump the Suns at Etihad.

    There’ll be a massive crowd at the MCG on Sunday to see Collingwood all but end Essendon’s finals hopes.

    It’s a dangerous game tipping the Giants to win meaningful games away from home, but the Eagles just don’t look the same side without star forwards Josh Kennedy and Jack Darling so I think GWS will grab their ninth win of the season.

    Josh Kelly

    (Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)

    Cameron Rose
    Sydney, Richmond, Brisbane, Port Adelaide, Hawthorn, Melbourne, North Melbourne, Collingwood, GWS

    Check out my Thursday night forecast for why I think Sydney will kick off Round 16 with a win.

    Richmond hosts Adelaide in a grand final re-match that will be the Crows’ first return to the venue since they were humiliated by the Tigers on footy’s biggest stage.

    This shapes as a danger game for Richmond despite their invulnerability at the MCG fortress, with Adelaide already easily beating them once this year and ready to surge towards finals after a stunning comeback against West Coast this week.

    Tipping the Tiges in a tight one.

    Brisbane, Port, Hawthorn and Melbourne to be the Saturday winners, although a few of those are likely to be less one-sided than they looked a couple of weeks ago.

    North should beat up on Gold Coast and avenge their Round 1 loss.

    Collingwood starts their tough run now after an easy draw up to this point, and hit an Essendon side coming off three wins in a row.

    Tipping the Pies to win the midfield battle even without Adam Treloar, and to put the brakes on the Bombers fast ball movement.

    GWS are also back on-song, while the wheels at West Coast are wobbling off with no Kennedy, Darling or LeCras.

    The Giants midfield should be too strong for the Eagles, and give their forward-line enough looks to post a winning score.

    Nathan Buckley

    (Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)

    TomC
    Sydney, Richmond, Brisbane, Port Adelaide, Hawthorn, Melbourne, North Melbourne, Collingwood, West Coast

    Another big test for the Swans, this time at home against the Cats. I still think Geelong will have a big say in the outcome of the 2018 season, but I’ll have to back Sydney at home.

    Richmond will continue their merry run in Melbourne against an Adelaide team still piecing itself together a bit.

    Carlton have waxed between competitiveness and hopelessness. I think they’re a good chance to upset the fragile Lions, but on balance you have to pick the slightly more consistent Lions.

    The Dogs have hit some good form and are a real good chance to make the finals a more difficult proposition for the Hawks, but from what we’ve seen over the course of the year I think Hawthorn still have a bit more class and resilience.

    I’m really looking forward to the Essendon-Collingwood clash. They’re both playing pretty exciting footy. I’ll tip the Pies to outgun the Bombers in hopefully a high scoring game.

    GWS seem to be on the up, and West Coast in a slump. But I think there’s something a bit soft about the Giants’ form and they might come unstuck out west.

    Elsewhere, Port at home over the Saints, Melbourne to snap their losing streak against the Dockers, North easily over Gold Coast.

    Round 16 Josh E Adrian P Cam R TomC The Crowd
    SYD vs GEE SYD GEE SYD SYD SYD
    RIC vs ADE RIC RIC RIC RIC RIC
    BRI vs CAR BRI BRI BRI BRI BRI
    PA vs STK PA PA PA PA PA
    WB vs HAW HAW HAW HAW HAW HAW
    MEL vs FRE MEL MEL MEL MEL MEL
    NM vs GCS NM NM NM NM NM
    ESS vs COL COL COL COL COL COL
    WCE vs GWS WCE GWS GWS WCE GWS
    Last week 2 4 5 4 3
    Total 78 82 81 89 90

    Josh Elliott
    Josh Elliott

    Josh Elliott may be The Roar's Weekend Editor, but at heart he's just a rusted-on North Melbourne tragic with a penchant for pun headlines - and also abnormal alliteration, assuredly; assuming achievability. He once finished third in a hot chilli pie eating contest. You can follow him on Twitter @JoshElliott_29 and listen to him on The Roar's AFL Podcast.

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    The Crowd Says (23)

    • Roar Guru

      July 5th 2018 @ 9:23am
      Stirling Coates said | July 5th 2018 @ 9:23am | ! Report

      Been a long time since I’ve seen Brisbane appear four times in the tipping table.

      I wouldn’t sleep on the Dogs or Giants this weekend, but it otherwise looks pretty straightforward.

    • Roar Guru

      July 5th 2018 @ 10:10am
      Peter the Scribe said | July 5th 2018 @ 10:10am | ! Report

      Yeah Doggies may cause a problem for the Hawks, Cats season defining game will see them pull out one of their best wins all year to beat the Swans, WCE will bounce back to easily account for GWS. Richmond will win by 40+ and the Pies will get into a new gear against the Bombers to win by 30 + .

    • July 5th 2018 @ 10:38am
      IAP said | July 5th 2018 @ 10:38am | ! Report

      I’m surprised that no-one’s tipping Essendon. I am. They’re back playing good footy, and Collingwood have only beaten average teams. I reckon the Bombers will get over the line.
      I’m backing my Dogs in too – they’ve recaptured their mojo; confidence is everything in footy, and so is having a backline. They’re a different team with Morris and Adams back; it allows a much better forward set up. It’ll be close, but they’ve got more class in their younger brigade than Hawthorn. Mitchell will get another 40 useless touches though; he’s the new Dane Swan.

      • Roar Rookie

        July 5th 2018 @ 10:46am
        Wilson said | July 5th 2018 @ 10:46am | ! Report

        It seems our tips will be similar, IAP. Weirdly, Essendon has more runs on the board than the 2nd placed Pies.

      • Roar Guru

        July 5th 2018 @ 12:03pm
        Peter the Scribe said | July 5th 2018 @ 12:03pm | ! Report

        Dane Swan was the prototype for Dusty Martin IAP and a significant reason we won 2010 and went runners up in 2011. If you were unaware of his impact you must not have watched enough Pies games. Just one stat as an example despite averaging 30+ in 2011 for example he also kicked 32 goals.

        • Roar Guru

          July 5th 2018 @ 2:30pm
          JamesH said | July 5th 2018 @ 2:30pm | ! Report

          Yeah I find the comparison between Mitchell and Swan a strange one. If you wanted to downplay to impact of Mitchell’s possessions (which I don’t) then comparing him to an attacking midfielder who regularly hurt opposnents on the scoreboard seems an odd choice.

          • Roar Guru

            July 6th 2018 @ 10:30am
            Peter the Scribe said | July 6th 2018 @ 10:30am | ! Report

            Mitchell reminds me of a slightly better version of Tony Shaw more than Swannie. Accumulates a lot of touches in the packs, courageous, not quick and not a great kick.

      • July 5th 2018 @ 3:46pm
        David Rudland said | July 5th 2018 @ 3:46pm | ! Report

        I’m totally with you about ESS and the WB!

    • Roar Rookie

      July 5th 2018 @ 11:23am
      WCE said | July 5th 2018 @ 11:23am | ! Report

      gee we got no Kennedy, no Darling, no Lecca or Liam Ryan in the forward line. I thought big Fraser would do a lot better as a trial up forward but he’s hasn’t worked out at all kicking 1 goal in 2 games. In my opinion we only have 2 options left , bring in Vardy as the FF and maybe try Brander again as centre half . Hopefully Barrass could be back for us in the back line but I haven’t heard for definite. Bring in Petrucelli for speed in the pocket and Sheed in the guts for some grunt.

      • July 5th 2018 @ 1:18pm
        Jungle Jim said | July 5th 2018 @ 1:18pm | ! Report

        Need Yeo in the middle.(need Yeo everywhere really?)
        Just having Barrass back would make a big difference.
        Some wanting M.Allen in, but hard to go past Vardy,
        Sheed and Petrol or even Venables? (what’s happened
        to Partington…on the outer)

    • July 5th 2018 @ 12:14pm
      big four sticks said | July 5th 2018 @ 12:14pm | ! Report

      Lock of the week is Brisbane. They will demolish Carlton by 100 points.

      Finally the Lions will follow up one good win with another.

      • Roar Guru

        July 5th 2018 @ 12:29pm
        AdelaideDocker said | July 5th 2018 @ 12:29pm | ! Report

        If Brissy win by 100 points I’ll change my pic on here to a Eagles logo.

        • Roar Guru

          July 5th 2018 @ 12:46pm
          Peter the Scribe said | July 5th 2018 @ 12:46pm | ! Report

          And I’ll change mine to a Carlton logo.

          • July 5th 2018 @ 2:14pm
            truetigerfan said | July 5th 2018 @ 2:14pm | ! Report

            Carna Lions!

            • Roar Guru

              July 5th 2018 @ 2:33pm
              JamesH said | July 5th 2018 @ 2:33pm | ! Report

              +1. Looking forward to seeing these profile pic changes!

              • July 6th 2018 @ 10:24am
                Macca said | July 6th 2018 @ 10:24am | ! Report

                The blues are slowly getting a better side back on the park (Kennedy, Pickett, Murphy & Marchbank back in recent weeks) but are still missing more of their best 22 than the lions, are fielding a less experienced side than the lions (2 fewer players over 100 games, 3 more players under 50 games and 4 more players under 21) and the blues have a terrible record against the Lions winning 1 game from the last 6 and the blues not having won at the Gabba since 2013 (despite going there every year – in fact since 2005 the blues have missed going to the Gabba just once in 2011) – I don’t see the margin being 100 points but I am far from confident of a win.

        • Roar Guru

          July 6th 2018 @ 10:32am
          Peter the Scribe said | July 6th 2018 @ 10:32am | ! Report

          Just don’t lose by 100 points thanks Macca.

    • Roar Pro

      July 5th 2018 @ 1:35pm
      anon said | July 5th 2018 @ 1:35pm | ! Report

      The Western-Hawthorn, Essendon-Collingwood, West Coast-GWS games are the only games that are slightly troubling to pick.

      Hawthorn is the only logical choice against Western. Hawthorn only just lost to GWS in Sydney. Geelong are different team away from Kardinia Park.

      Ess-Coll is a close pick, but the only logical choice is Collingwood. It won’t be a shootout for Essendon this week.

      West Coast-GWS could go either way. It’s hard to know how bad the Eagles are, but it’s still a long road trip, West Coast probably should have beaten an improved Crows team last week. Only sensible choice is West Coast.

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