After achieving total hegemony within Scottish football this season, Celtic have firmly entrenched themselves within footballing purgatory – too good for Scotland but not good enough for Europe. Could a move to England be viable?
This season, Celtic have set a series of records with their dominance – 23 points clear at the top of the table and 35 points clear of third, as well as being unbeaten.
This total dominance – they have also just won their sixth consecutive title – led people to wonder what is next for the Scottish giants.
The club also has to deal with selling their best players every year, because they outgrow the league but not the club.
When looking at the current squad, there is some room for optimism about how they would cope within the Premier League, but only enough for tentative optimism. A major overhaul would be required in order to complement the handful of players already present that would cope in the Premier League.
Leigh Griffiths, Stuart Armstrong, Mikel Lustig, Erik Sviatchenko, Scott Brown, Callum McGregor, and Tom Rogic have all had a good season as Celtic have made a mockery of the Scottish Premiership.
The transfer rumours, and alleged big-money offers already made from Premier League teams for Kieran Tierney, as well as Moussa Dembélé show that they would easily adapt to life within a more competitive league.
Many additions would obviously be necessary for the club to survive at this level, and while Celtic did manage two draws against Manchester City in the Champions League group stage, doing that on a regular basis is a different test entirely.
Although additions would be necessary, a closer look at the club’s revenue potential would make that an entirely possible scenario.
Unsurprisingly, it all comes down to finances – could Celtic achieve the financial muscle to effectively challenge in England?
Given the recent TV deal, broadcasting revenue has become the lifeblood for many clubs – for example, it is 76 per cent and 68 per cent of the total revenue for Stoke City and Sunderland respectively.
Broadcasting is what transforms an average Championship team into a genuine Premier League entity. The BBC reported that the current TV deal, which started this year, saw a 71 per cent increase upon the previous deal, which will see the league generate £5.14 billion over three years. This has lead to disparities both between revenue streams that clubs can generate and also between leagues, with Premier League clubs able to significantly outspend their rivals from other nations.
Manchester City’s Sergio Aguero (Photo by Nigel French – EMPICS/PA Images via Getty Images)
The disparity between broadcasting income and other revenue streams is really what reinforces the notion that Celtic could absolutely thrive within the Premier League. Celtic’s revenue last season was £52 million – a £1 million increase on the previous year.
When you take away broadcasting revenue, Celtic has a significantly greater income than both Stoke and Sunderland. Given Sunderland have been in the Premier League for the past several seasons and Stoke have finished ninth for the past three seasons, this shows that the financial gulf between these clubs is purely down to the league in which the teams play.
Another key benefit for Celtic is, and would continue to be, their home ground, Celtic Park.
The 60,411 capacity stadium in the east end of Glasgow is the third-biggest club stadium in Britain. The intimidating atmosphere created, as well as the huge revenue potential of a packed venue would help Celtic transition to the Premier League.
Given their 20-30,000 extra capacity than most other EPL stadiums, this would give Celtic a huge financial advantage and allow them to aim for a top-half finish, with the potential to fight for Champions League qualification regularly.
The other factor is the famous atmosphere generated by Celtic fans led by the club’s ultras, the ‘Green Brigade’; the atmosphere has been lauded on a regular basis by footballing royalty.
After playing against Celtic with Barcelona, Xavi said: “The atmosphere generated by the fans in Celtic’s stadium for our visit was the most impressive I’ve ever witnessed. The grounds of Liverpool and Manchester United are good and the hostile feeling of playing against Real Madrid in the Bernabeu is also excellent, but the atmosphere against Celtic was the best.”
Lionel Messi added: “I’ve been fortunate to play in some great stadiums in Europe with Barcelona but none compare to Celtic. The atmosphere their fans create make it a very special European night of football.”
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Being a big fish in a small pond makes finding lucrative commercial deals incredibly difficult, moving to a league with the level of international exposure as the EPL would help Celtic capitalise on their potential for commercial appeal.
The Scottish Premiership currently has a limited international appeal outside of expats wishing to see their team play. Combined with Celtic’s complete dominance of the league, this puts a glass ceiling upon the commercial revenues that can be generated.
Recent estimates have put the current global EPL international viewership at over 4 billion people, so a move south would increase Celtic’s ability to increase commercial revenue. This would be aided by Celtic’s already sizeable fanbase around the world, through both the Scottish and Irish diaspora, as well as fans in East Asia thanks to the remarkable success of Japanese and Korean players such as Shunsuke Nakamura and Ki Sung-Yeung.
Celtic’s commercial revenue from last season was roughly £10 million, which pales in comparison to Manchester City’s £178 million, but is much closer to Stoke City’s £16.8 million and Sunderland’s £21.2 million.
The comparisons with Stoke and Sunderland are particularly telling as they demonstrate what clubs from relatively modest towns without a significant supporter base outside of their home can achieve. Adding the viewership and subsequent international exposure that would come from moving to the EPL, combined with their already large supporter base internationally and marketable image would allow Celtic to generate the income necessary to thrive in the league.
The real question that would then have to be asked concerns the Champions League. Would they accept not being an ever-present fixture in the tournament and not being in the tournament at all for the first few seasons while they play the game of financial catch up?
This question, for a club with such an affinity for the tournament, would not be inconsequential and may perhaps make or break the prospect.
While Celtic would increase their finances dramatically by being in the EPL, the gap between themselves and teams such as Manchester City and Chelsea would take time to bridge.
There are also non-footballing reasons to consider.
Would Celtic be able to attract world-class footballers to Glasgow? The simple answer is yes, of course they would. The climate is not going to get any ringing endorsements from the locals, but it is a city steeped in history, tradition and culture, and was ranked ‘friendliest city in the world’ in 2016.
Despite well-documented social problems, Glasgow won European capital of culture in 1990 and has since continued upon that trend, becoming a vibrant, cosmopolitan city that would be a favourable selling point to many footballers and their families.
So, could it happen? In a word, yes.
Celtic would absolutely be able to generate the finances in which they would be a permanent fixture within the league, winning would be much more difficult, however not impossible.
A definitive yes or no within this article would be highly improper given if this move transpired the landscape would look so vastly different. Given that the answer of ‘could’ has been addressed, the two questions I will pose upon finishing is should and can it happen?
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