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Saturday preview: Nature Strip to book a slot in The Everest

David Hayes is the co-trainer of Good 'n' Fast, who is tipped to win at Flemington on Saturday. (AAP Image/Kelly Barnes)
Expert
5th July, 2018
1

All roads lead to Flemington on Saturday for what is regarded as “finals day”, but the one race all eyes will be on won’t be a betting prospect.

If the Nature Strip we know shows up in the AR Creswick Series Final, he’ll be winning by a comfortable margin. He was superb a fortnight ago and Darren Weir seems to have him settled in his new stable. But he’s a $1.45 shot and I wouldn’t back Winx at those odds (okay maybe I would).

Truth be told, it was poor form by Racing Victoria to schedule this race as a leg of the quaddie. Punters will no doubt look to stand him out, and those who try and get him beat will probably only reduce the value of their ticket. He’ll be winning and will probably earn a slot in The Everest in the process, but I’ll be watching with my money firmly in my pocket.

After a strong start last week, where followers would have turned a profit, I’ll take a look at another five races on the card this Saturday in the bid to find a winner.

Flemington (VIC)

Rail true for the entire course. Rated Good 3 at the time of writing. No rain forecast Friday and Saturday.

Race 4 – 1.35pm Silver Bowl Series Final (1600m): Very competitive race and we’ve got exposed form for most of these runners. Remember The Name is chasing a hat-trick of wins after defeating Mount Kilcoy and Gaulois last start, but the bookies have reversed the odds, with the latter as the early favourite.

Luck in running will mean a lot and Gauloi can turn the tables on Saturday. Not that Brad Rawiller is a bad jockey, but Damian Lane is in form and is probably more versatile. He can be the difference. The one to watch could be Hostar, who flew home at any old odds last time. Probably can’t win, but include in exotics.

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Suggested bet: Gaulois to win.

Race 5 – 2.10pm Taj Rossi Series Final (1600m): Talked about this bloke a fortnight ago as a horse to follow and I can’t jump off. Good ‘n’ Fast looks a very nice type and, providing nothing else has improved dramatically in this two-year-old race, should be winning. He will be favourite and will probably jump close to $3, but he’s the best bet of the day.

There was some early market support for the Corstens-trained Goldifox, mostly on the back of weight relief, but the Hayes favourite still has plenty of improvement left in him.

Suggested bet: Good ‘n’ Fast to win.

Trainer David Hayes

(AAP Image/Kelly Barnes)

Randwick (NSW)

Rail out nine metres for the entire course. Rated Heavy 8 at the time of writing. No rain forecast Friday and Saturday.

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Race 4 – 1.20pm Half Yearly Membership Mile (1600m): A seven-horse field on a wet track at Randwick. Not sure why I’m even investing on this race, but there’s a runner at huge odds who could run a cheeky race. Oklahoma Girl was $17 with CrownBet at the time of writing and she’s not a 16-1 chance on form.

The four-year-old mare has only won three races in 20 starts, so she needs a few things to go her way, but she ticks most of the boxes. She’s won on heavy, all of her wins have come over the mile and she’s in a small field, meaning she won’t need to run past many. Drops in class for mine and she’s well in this.

The horse to run down will be Wide Spread Panic from the Waterhouse-Bott yard and he’s untried on the slop.

Suggested bet: Oklahoma Girl each-way (only two place dividends).

Race 5 – 1.55pm Winter Racing Handicap (2400m): They’ll take about six minutes to run this race on the bog at Randwick, but it’s a competitive field and there’s a progressive horse who can go on to make it a hat-trick of wins. Former European galloper Nahuel has won his past two races at Newcastle and although this is a bigger jump in class, at least has some upside.

Not sure you can say the same about his rivals. He’ll need to improve to win this, but Richard Freedman has him ticking over nicely and he’ll be the horse to beat.

Suggested bet: Nahuel to win.

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Doomben (QLD)

Rail out six metres for the entire course. Rated Soft 5 at the time of writing. Some showers forecast Friday. Clear on Saturday.

Race 7 – 3.22pm Madame Wu Benchmark 80 Handicap (1200m): Not the strongest Saturday race you’ll see in Brisbane, but a horse I like is Miss Iano, who drops in class significantly. Last time out was a game fifth in the Group 2 Dane Ripper and prior to that was fourth in a Listed race at the Sunshine Coast.

The Victorian-trained mare likes the sting out of the ground and should benefit from a strong tempo and feature in the finish. The danger could be Qiji Phoenix, who won three in a row from debut in New Zealand, but failed to produce first up in Brisbane last year. Is first-up in more than 12 months, but if Toby Edmonds has him fit, he could be the class runner.

Suggested bet: Miss Iano to win.

Total spend in 2018: $80*
Total return in 2018: $124*

* Based on $20 spend per selection and CrownBet’s top tote dividend.

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