Can Collingwood win the 2018 premiership?

Tash Gunawardana Roar Rookie

By Tash Gunawardana, Tash Gunawardana is a Roar Rookie

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    The Collingwood’s 2018 side are strangely similar to the Richmond side that won the 2017 premiership.

    Collingwood finished 13th on the ladder in 2017 and currently sit second on the 2018 ladder. This is similar to the 2016 Richmond side, which finished 13th on the AFL ladder at the end of that season but the following year won the premiership.

    Richmond coach Damien Hardwick was also the talking point of the AFL media in 2016, with any thinking the Tigers board would sack him – but Hardwick was given a contract extension, and he repaid the club’s faith in him with a premiership in 2017.

    In 2017 Collingwood coach Nathan Buckley was on the verge of being sacked because of the team’s poor performance on the field. Collingwood captain Scott Pendlebury revealed to the Jock and Journo podcast in May 2018 that Buckley was under pressure and that it took a toll on him and the players.

    “I think every player was worried every week because you didn’t know”, Pendlebury said. “I wouldn’t have been shocked either way if Round 3 he was re-signed, or Round 3 he had have got the arse because you just didn’t know.

    “There was just so much pressure on this football club. Credit to how he handled himself last year, I thought he was brilliant.”

    Buckley re-signed with Collingwood for two more seasons in August 2017, and the atmosphere at Collingwood changed from 2017 to 2018, with Pendlebury saying it was totally different.

    Pendlebury has always been a huge supporter of Buckley. He believes Buckley has the game plan to take Collingwood to the promised land in football and that Buckley just needed the right side and a good run with injuries.

    Buckley has turned around their fortunes on and off the field in 2018, and now they are up there as the main flag threat to Richmond.

    If Richmond’s 2016 and 2017 seasons are anything to go by, Collingwood could do a Richmond and win the 2018 premiership.

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    The Crowd Says (28)

    • Roar Guru

      July 10th 2018 @ 8:09am
      Peter the Scribe said | July 10th 2018 @ 8:09am | ! Report

      Good read thanks Tash and despite my optimism last year in this article I wrote last December, https://www.theroar.com.au/2017/12/01/debunking-myths-around-nathan-buckley-pies-actually-headed/
      it is still hard to believe we actually sit 2nd heading into round 17. Anything is possible from the position the club is in right now. The Tigers are a juggernaut but have finally started getting a few injuries which may bring them back to the pack a little. It is exactly that, injuries, which may not give the Pies a clear tilt at an unlikely flag. We now hit the hardest stretch of our fixture, a fixture that has been exceedingly kind so far yet now shows Eagles, Nth, Tigers, Swans and Port on the run home. Injuries mount every week with Hoskin-Elliott down (thankfully appears just bad bruising) and Appleby last round. We have confirmed outs for the rest of the season in Dunn, Broomhead and Wells but may start to get a few players back over the next few weeks. Moore, Elliott, Josh Smith, Varcoe and Aish will push for selection next 2-3 weeks and then the big ones at the back end of the season include Adam Treloar who, with a clear comeback could play round 22-23. The other is an unlikely but possible return of Tyson Goldsack who did an ACL at the start of the year but is now back training already and could take the Dunn spot. If the Pies can get some players back, Treloar returns in particular and we make top 4, anything is possible.
      People don’t realise the Pies have had a full rebuild since our 2010-2011 grand finals with only Pendlebury, Sidebottom and Josh Thomas playing most games this year from our 2012 list

    • Roar Guru

      July 10th 2018 @ 8:42am
      Peter the Scribe said | July 10th 2018 @ 8:42am | ! Report

      oh boy, comments are great as they show just how wrong people can be, huh Aligee? Bucks gone or Bucks coach of the year?

      Aligee said | May 18th 2018 @ 8:55am | ! Report

      Collingwood has a few good wins every year, maybe they will have a couple more but ultimately they will be in the bottom half of the 8.

      Buckley needs to go, in fact he should already be gone.

      Eddie who has a bunch of handpicked YES men on the board needs to go as well, dictatorships rarely turn out well in the end.

      Reply

    • July 10th 2018 @ 10:08am
      Chet said | July 10th 2018 @ 10:08am | ! Report

      I think any one of 6 teams ‘could’ win it if they get hot at the right time.

      Look it’s a positive season for Collingwood. They have a massive injury list and have still exceeded expectations.

      But there is a big gap between ‘could’ and ‘will’.

    • Roar Rookie

      July 10th 2018 @ 10:14am
      Fat Toad said | July 10th 2018 @ 10:14am | ! Report

      One of the great challenges for anyone involved in organisational efficiency is working out what is working well and what needs changing. So many of the comparisons that are dragged up about similarities between or inside groups are simply coincidences. Comparing Collingwood’s position to Richmond’s two years ago draws a long bow and much can be considered as just numerology. There may be many correlations, but the real challenge is finding which are linked and which are coincidental. How many great coaches never got enough time to correct the poor recruiting of the previous coach’s recruiting strategy? Alternatively, how many coaches set up the systems and recruiting that benefited their successors?

      The greatest similarity is in how Richmond and Collingwood addressed their internal challenges is by bringing in a fresh set of eyes for organisational reviews, you do not need to be an ex-player for this as the skills required are quite different to administration of a football club or any other organisation. I thought one of the interesting conclusions from the Richmond review was that Hardwick should do less. To support this he had roles taken off him which were delegated to other staff. One of the most under appreciated aspects of coaching is the creativity required to reassemble the same pieces of a jigsaw each week to make a new team for a new opponent but still have the team remain the same enough that it can still function effectively. To do this, coaches and there inner circle need sufficient space in their life to just sit and let their mind wander.

      • July 10th 2018 @ 10:23am
        Tash said | July 10th 2018 @ 10:23am | ! Report

        Only time will tell but I believe Collingwood have been the most consistent team along with Richmond this year. If any team is a threat to Richmond’s flag chances this year it’s Collingwood in my opinion.

        • Roar Rookie

          July 10th 2018 @ 12:37pm
          Fat Toad said | July 10th 2018 @ 12:37pm | ! Report

          Even if Collingwood win, there will be so many factors at play that it will be a challenge to identify which were the key ones and which were by coincidence. In some cases the determining factors will be external to Collingwood and Richmond, such as player injuries or returns to opponents, and team to team match ups in other games.

          Once we get to the finals it is like a completely new and separate season. So much is decided by the starting position on the ladder and how an individual team’s system matches up against other’s. In the home and away season individual match ups are important, but not as critical as in the sudden death scenario of a final.

          Richmond are a powerful opponent but being the hunted all season brings its own pressure and the additional effort teams have brought against them is likely to add to the chance of late season injuries. I am a little surprised that they have not taken the chance to rest some tired bodies as Geelong, Sydney, and Hawthorn have previously.

        • Roar Rookie

          July 10th 2018 @ 6:22pm
          Mattician6x6 said | July 10th 2018 @ 6:22pm | ! Report

          I think your missing wce in that consistent list.

          • July 10th 2018 @ 6:33pm
            Tash said | July 10th 2018 @ 6:33pm | ! Report

            WCE have not been consistent in the second half of this season so far due to injuries to their big name players in Darling and Kennedy. They were consistent first half of the season but form has fallen away due to injuries. I’m sure there consistency will come back when Kennedy and Darling come back in about 2 weeks

            • Roar Rookie

              July 10th 2018 @ 7:55pm
              Mattician6x6 said | July 10th 2018 @ 7:55pm | ! Report

              Besides after rd one wce have been in top 3
              That’s consistency.

          • July 10th 2018 @ 6:44pm
            powa said | July 10th 2018 @ 6:44pm | ! Report

            both wce and port are on the same amount of wins and have beaten better opposition, this is the Melbourne bubble at its worst, but hey they can underestimate both teams if they want, I am going to remind every colliwobble article writer about how wrong they were when collingwood bomb out of the finals because you actually have to beat a top 8 side to win a final….

      • Roar Guru

        July 10th 2018 @ 10:26am
        Peter the Scribe said | July 10th 2018 @ 10:26am | ! Report

        What a welcome addition you are Mr Toad to The Roar, always look forward to reading your well reasoned comments.

        • July 10th 2018 @ 10:44am
          Tash said | July 10th 2018 @ 10:44am | ! Report

          Thanks Peter the Scribe for your good feedback really appreciate it

        • Roar Rookie

          July 10th 2018 @ 12:25pm
          Fat Toad said | July 10th 2018 @ 12:25pm | ! Report

          Thanks PtS, I also enjoy your comments.

          • July 10th 2018 @ 1:21pm
            truetigerfan said | July 10th 2018 @ 1:21pm | ! Report

            Sounding like the 3 chipmunks.

            • Roar Guru

              July 10th 2018 @ 3:23pm
              Peter the Scribe said | July 10th 2018 @ 3:23pm | ! Report

              TrueTiger…..the “kick it to me” contributor in The Roar.

              • July 10th 2018 @ 5:09pm
                truetigerfan said | July 10th 2018 @ 5:09pm | ! Report

                Thanks Alvin. You know I make sense.

            • Roar Rookie

              July 10th 2018 @ 7:31pm
              Fat Toad said | July 10th 2018 @ 7:31pm | ! Report

              Jeez, its enough to make me croak.

    • Roar Guru

      July 10th 2018 @ 12:57pm
      Wayne said | July 10th 2018 @ 12:57pm | ! Report

      Collingwood Injury List will hurt them for their push, where Richmond were relatively injury free last season:

      James Aish Knee Test
      Flynn Appleby Hamstring TBC
      Jarryd Blair Hamstring Test
      Tim Broomhead Broken leg Season
      Lynden Dunn Knee Season
      Jamie Elliott Hamstring Test
      Alex Fasolo Ankle Test
      Tyson Goldsack Knee 7-11 weeks
      Kayle Kirby Heart issue Indefinite
      Darcy Moore Hamstring Test
      Ben Reid Knees/calf 3-5 weeks
      Adam Treloar Hamstring 6-8 weeks
      Daniel Wells Foot Season

      • Roar Guru

        July 10th 2018 @ 1:43pm
        Peter the Scribe said | July 10th 2018 @ 1:43pm | ! Report

        Wayne, the good news for Pies is Moore, J Smith and Varcoe all played twos last week. J Smith BOG. Blair should be playing for say a Carlton as he would probably be top 5 in their B and F but will struggle to break into the Pies side. Reid sadly is injury prone like his brother and we may not see him this year. Appleby may be replaced by Sam Murray. Treloar is the one we really need back for finals. He is a pro so will not surprise to see him playing round 22-23.

    • July 10th 2018 @ 6:35pm
      powa said | July 10th 2018 @ 6:35pm | ! Report

      “main flag threat” this is the third such article on this, both port and the wce are on the same amount of wins, and have actually beaten teams better than middling melbourne

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