State of Origin 3 stats preview: There's no such thing as a dead rubber

Tim Gore

Expert

11th July, 2018

Join the conversation

Join the Roar Today for your chance to win $1,000 each week

Winner drawn every Friday at 11am.
Promotion ends April 12th, 2024.

Angus Crichton. (Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)

Tim Gore

Expert

11th July, 2018

The stats suggest that the Maroons are major underdogs in the final match and in severe danger of losing the series 3-0.

However, only a fool writes off the Queenslanders.

More Origin 3
» GORE: Queensland prove every single Origin match matters
» Who rose to the occasion for the Maroons? All Queensland players rated
» Every New South Wales player’s Game 3 effort rated
» Seven talking points from Origin 3
» WATCH: Complete match highlights from Billy Slater’s triumphant farewell

State of Origin is all about hating your opponent and striving to stop them getting what they want. The Blues desperately want to pants their opponents, who have so ruthlessly owned then over the past decade.

The Maroons want to stop the Blues just as desperately.

There is no such thing as a dead rubber in State of Origin.

There have been 22 Origin Game 3s held in Brisbane, with Queensland winning 14, losing seven and drawing one. That’s a 63.6 per cent rate of victory.

Of those games, 12 were dead rubbers, of which the Maroons won seven (58.33 per cent). Three of the times that they lost Game 3 at home, they had already won the series.

Queensland staved off a whitewash by winning the last game at home in 1990, 1993, 2003 and 2014. However, in 1986 and 1996, they lost the game and the series 3-0. Those are the only two times that the Maroons suffered a whitewash.

(Note: I do not include any 1997 games in these stats due to the Super League-ARL fiasco.)

Age, weight and minutes in the legs = NSW, just

NSW	Age	Minutes	Weight	QLD	Age	Minutes	Weight
James Tedesco	25	80	96	Billy Slater	35	80	89
Tom Trbojevic	21	80	102	Valentine Holmes	22	80	85
James Roberts	25	79.1	93	Dane Gagai	27	80	91
Latrell Mitchell	21	78.6	104	Will Chambers	30	80	100
Josh Addo-Carr	22	79.7	86	Corey Oates	23	75.9	106
James Maloney	32	80	83	Cameron Munster	23	80	89
Nathan Cleary	20	72	92	Daly Cherry-Evans	29	80.6	84
Paul Vaughan	27	51.1	110	Jai Arrow	22	56	101
Damien Cook	27	79.3	86	Andrew McCullough	28	75	90
David Klemmer	24	54.8	116	Josh Papalii	26	66.5	110
Tyson Frizell	26	74.4	108	Gavin Cooper	32	80	108
Boyd Cordner	26	76.1	102	Felise Kaufusi	26	78.3	112
Jack de Belin	27	56.8	107	Josh McGuire	28	63.6	106
Jake Trbojevic	24	76.8	107	Ben Hunt	28	77.2	87
Angus Crichton	22	79.8	102	Jarrod Wallace	26	46.7	108
Tariq Sims	28	76.5	105	Coen Hess	21	75.4	110
Tyrone Peachey	26	71.5	93	Tim Glasby	29	42.5	106
Average	24.9	73.3	99.5	Average	26.8	71.6	98.9
Total	423	1246.5	1692	Total	455	1218	1682
Forwards	25.7 / 231	69.5 / 625.6	104.75 / 838	Forwards	26.4 / 238	64.9 / 584	105.6 / 951
Backs	24 / 192	77.6 / 621	93.6 / 749	Backs	27.1 / 217	79.2 / 634	91.4 / 731

While the comparative weights of the two sides are virtually even, the New South Welshmen are almost two years younger than their opponents on average.

Jimmy Maloney is the only Cockroach who is over 30 years old. Conversely, the Maroons have three old men in their side, the oldest of who is 35-year-old Billy Slater, who is bowing out following this match.

Further, NSW have almost 30 minutes more in their legs.

Runs and metres = NSW by a length

NSW	Runs	Metres	QLD	Runs	Metres
James Tedesco	15.5	170.0	Billy Slater	11.4	95
Tom Trbojevic	14.1	140.0	Valentine Holmes	10.9	118
James Roberts	8.6	78.0	Dane Gagai	13.3	113
Latrell Mitchell	6.8	74.0	Will Chambers	11.2	94
Josh Addo-Carr	10.6	116.0	Corey Oates	13.2	145
James Maloney	5.3	54.0	Cameron Munster	9.8	86
Nathan Cleary	7.8	59.0	Daly Cherry-Evans	5.6	53
Paul Vaughan	13.4	126.0	Jai Arrow	15.5	141
Damien Cook	7.5	94.0	Andrew McCullough	4.5	41
David Klemmer	17.8	169.0	Josh Papalii	13.3	119
Tyson Frizell	10.2	96.0	Gavin Cooper	9.1	67
Boyd Cordner	12.4	108.0	Felise Kaufusi	7.7	66
Jack de Belin	10.8	93.0	Josh McGuire	13.3	122
Jake Trbojevic	13.4	117.0	Ben Hunt	4.1	35
Angus Crichton	15.3	119.0	Jarrod Wallace	12.8	108
Tariq Sims	12.7	110.0	Coen Hess	11.8	92
Tyrone Peachey	10.8	101.0	Tim Glasby	8.9	74
Average	11.4	107.3	Average	10.4	92.3
Total	193	1824.0	Total	176.4	1569
Forwards	12.6 / 113.5	114.7 / 1032	Forwards	10.7 / 96.9	92.2 / 830
Backs	9.9 / 79.5	99 / 792	Backs	9.9 / 79.5	92.4 / 739

Gee, these are telling stats.

255 metres is a lot of difference in the average metres comparison. The Blues have ten of their squad who average over 100 metres a game, while Queensland have just seven. The lack of metres in backrowers Gavin Cooper and Felise Kaufusi is a particular concern.

NSW also have 13 extra runs a game overall – a clear advantage.

Excepting the hookers, the Blues have no forwards who average fewer than ten runs a game. The Maroons have three: Tim Glasby, Cooper and Kaufusi.

Tackling = even

NSW	Tackles	Missed Tackles	QLD	Tackles	Missed Tackles
James Tedesco	5.8	0.6	Billy Slater	4	1.1
Tom Trbojevic	4.7	1.3	Valentine Holmes	2.6	1.6
James Roberts	12	1.2	Dane Gagai	14.9	3
Latrell Mitchell	8.8	1.4	Will Chambers	12.7	3
Josh Addo-Carr	4	0.7	Corey Oates	3.7	0.8
James Maloney	11	5.8	Cameron Munster	16.8	2.3
Nathan Cleary	13.2	0.6	Daly Cherry-Evans	16.8	2.2
Paul Vaughan	22.8	1	Jai Arrow	27.6	1.6
Damien Cook	38.8	2.2	Andrew McCullough	40.4	0.7
David Klemmer	20.6	1.3	Josh Papalii	23.2	1.3
Tyson Frizell	24.5	1.3	Gavin Cooper	26.3	2.2
Boyd Cordner	26.5	1.6	Felise Kaufusi	29	1.3
Jack de Belin	26.5	1	Josh McGuire	27.3	1.9
Jake Trbojevic	37.7	1.5	Ben Hunt	15.8	3.8
Angus Crichton	32	2.2	Jarrod Wallace	23.2	1
Tariq Sims	20.6	1.4	Coen Hess	31.3	1.7
Tyrone Peachey	12.8	2.1	Tim Glasby	22.6	1.4
Average			Average
Total	322.3	27.2	Total	338.2	30.9
Forwards	27.8 / 250	13.5	Forwards	27.9 / 251	13.1
Backs	9 / 72.3	13.7	Backs	10.9 / 87.3	17.8

The Maroons have the Blues covered when it comes to tacklingm, with 16 extra tackles in them. However, NSW miss nearly four fewer tackles.

Just look at Maloney’s 5.8 misses and Ben Hunt’s 3.8. They’ll be definite targets again, while Daly Cherry-Evans and Cam Munster will also draw some attention.

There is no getting away from Queensland’s backline’s missed tackle count.

Breaking and scoring = NSW

NSW	Tackle breaks	Line breaks	Try assists	Tries	Queensland	Tackle breaks	Line breaks	Try assists	Tries
James Tedesco	4.8	0.9	0.6	4	Billy Slater	2.9	0.4	0.8	4
Tom Trbojevic	4.5	0.9	1	2	Valentine Holmes	2.1	0.7	0.1	12
James Roberts	3.4	0.5	0.5	6	Dane Gagai	3.1	0.2	0.3	1
Latrell Mitchell	4	0.7	0.2	6	Will Chambers	1.6	0.3	0.1	2
Josh Addo-Carr	4	1	0.2	14	Corey Oates	3.5	1	0.1	8
James Maloney	1.6	0.2	0.8	2	Cameron Munster	2.7	0.3	0.8	2
Nathan Cleary	2.6	0.4	0.8	1	Daly Cherry-Evans	2.4	0.3	0.4	4
Paul Vaughan	1.4	0.1	0	2	Jai Arrow	1.9	0.3	0	3
Damien Cook	3.4	0.8	0.3	3	Andrew McCullough	0.7	0.2	0.3	2
David Klemmer	1.3	0	0.1	0	Josh Papalii	2.1	0.3	0.2	3
Tyson Frizell	1.3	0.1	0	4	Gavin Cooper	0.4	0.4	0	5
Boyd Cordner	1.1	0.1	0.1	1	Felise Kaufusi	0.4	0.3	0.1	3
Jack de Belin	2.1	0.3	0	3	Josh McGuire	1.6	0	0	0
Jake Trbojevic	0.9	0.3	0.1	4	Ben Hunt	2.8	0.3	0.8	3
Angus Crichton	2.3	0.3	0.1	2	Jarrod Wallace	0.8	0.1	0	2
Tariq Sims	2.9	0.4	0	5	Coen Hess	2.8	0.5	0	4
Tyrone Peachey	3.4	0.3	0.3	6	Tim Glasby	0.8	0.1	0.1	1
Average					Average
Total	45	7.3	5.1	65	Total	32.6	5.7	4.1	59
Forwards	1.8 / 16.7	2.4	0.7	23	Forwards	11.5	2.2	0.7	23
Backs	3.5 / 28.3	4.9	4.4	41	Backs	21.1	3.5	3.4	36

While the Blues’ advantage in line breaks, try assists and tries is only slight, their advantage in tackle breaks is huge: 12.4.

While we saw above that the Queenslanders have a higher tackling capacity, they also miss more. NSW’s ability to break the tackle could well be the significant stat.

Tyrone Peachey and James Roberts are the worst tackle breakers in the NSW back five and they boast 6.8 between them. The Maroons’ two best tackle breakers – Corey Oates and Dane Gagai – have 6.6 between them.

Mix the Blues’ backlines ability to break tackles with the Maroons’ backs’ ability to miss them and we could see a score blow out.

Foulers and fumblers = Queensland

NSW	Penalties	Errors	Sin Bins	QLD	Penalties	Errors	Sin Bins
James Tedesco	0.2	1.8	0	Billy Slater	0.1	0.9	0
Tom Trbojevic	0	1.5	0	Valentine Holmes	0.1	0.9	0
James Roberts	0.5	0.4	1	Dane Gagai	0.3	1.2	0
Latrell Mitchell	1.1	1.2	2	Will Chambers	0.6	1.4	0
Josh Addo-Carr	0.3	1.1	1	Corey Oates	0.1	1.1	0
James Maloney	0.7	1.7	0	Cameron Munster	1.1	0.8	0
Nathan Cleary	0.6	1.2	0	Daly Cherry-Evans	0.8	1.4	0
Paul Vaughan	0.5	0.3	0	Jai Arrow	0.5	0.2	0
Damien Cook	0.8	1	0	Andrew McCullough	0.7	0.4	0
David Klemmer	0.5	0.3	1	Josh Papalii	0.6	0.5	0
Tyson Frizell	0.8	0.5	0	Gavin Cooper	0.3	0.8	0
Boyd Cordner	0.3	0.5	0	Felise Kaufusi	0.2	0.6	0
Jack de Belin	0.8	0.5	1	Josh McGuire	0.9	0.1	0
Jake Trbojevic	1.4	0.4	2	Ben Hunt	0.7	0.7	0
Angus Crichton	0.9	1.4	0	Jarrod Wallace	1.1	0.4	1
Tariq Sims	0.5	0.3	0	Coen Hess	1	0.5	0
Tyrone Peachey	0.9	0.6	0	Tim Glasby	0.3	0	0
Average				Average
Total	10.8	14.7	8	Total	9.4	11.9	1
Forwards	6.5	5.2	4	Forwards	5.6	3.5	1
Backs	4.3	9.5	4	Backs	3.8	8.4	0

Queensland win this criteria easily and, considering that this match is at their home ground, this advantage could be amplified. While the penalties conceded are close, the Blues make three extra errors and are eight times more likely – at least by these stats – to have a player binned.

Latrell Mitchell and Jake Trbojevic are both almost certain to concede a penalty in this game. Jarrod Wallace will probably do the same for the Maroons.
Jimmys Tedesco and Maloney are most likely to make an error, with Will Chambers and Daly Cherry-Evans the most likely for Queensland.

Origin experience = Queensland by a Slater

NSW	Origin Games	QLD	Origin Games
James Tedesco	6	Billy Slater	30
Tom Trbojevic	2	Valentine Holmes	3
James Roberts	2	Dane Gagai	8
Latrell Mitchell	2	Will Chambers	8
Josh Addo-Carr	2	Corey Oates	5
James Maloney	12	Cameron Munster	3
Nathan Cleary	2	Daly Cherry-Evans	7
Paul Vaughan	2	Jai Arrow	2
Damien Cook	2	Andrew McCullough	2
David Klemmer	11	Josh Papalii	10
Tyson Frizell	7	Gavin Cooper	5
Boyd Cordner	11	Felise Kaufusi	2
Jack de Belin	2	Josh McGuire	10
Jake Trbojevic	5	Ben Hunt	3
Angus Crichton	2	Jarrod Wallace	4
Tariq Sims	0	Coen Hess	4
Tyrone Peachey	2	Tim Glasby	3
Average	4.2	Average	6.4
Total	72	Total	109
Forwards	42	Forwards	42
Backs	30	Backs	67

The New South Welshmen have featured at least one debutant in each match of this series, with Tariq Sims the latest editon – and a deserving one. The big unit from Gerringong has had a few quiet seasons since he first burst on the scene but in the last two years he has been wonderful.

The difference in experience in this game comes down to Billy Slater’s 30 games. This will be his 31st and last, seeing him equal Brad Fittler and Wally Lewis on that number. Fairly appropriate company for a superstar like Slater.

Who is going to win and why?
You can never count out the Queenslanders, especially at home. Four times at home they’ve staved off whitewashes, yet only twice have they gone down 3-0.

However, this will be the third time. The golden era is over. The dynasty has passed.

The Blues’ new-found belief and momentum is still gathering strength but it is already too much for the weakened Maroons. Their valiant defence will be overcome by the 60th minute and the Queensland faithful will have to watch Boyd Cordner lift the shield on their home turf.

And Billy Slater’s Origin career will end as it began – with a loss.

Join the conversation

Tim Gore

Expert

Tim has been an NRL statistician for ABC Radio Grandstand since 1999, primarily as part of their Canberra coverage. Tim has loved rugby league since Sterlo was a kid with lots of hair but was cursed with having no personal sporting ability whatsoever. He couldn't take a hit in footy, was a third division soccer player making up numbers, plays off 41 in golf and is possibly the world's worst cricketer ever. He has always been good at arguing the point though and he has a great memory of what happened.