After another entertaining season of Super Rugby, we’ve got just one week left to play before we farewell the home-and-away season and welcome finals football.
With a number of interesting scenarios still to play out, we’re looking at how good – or how bad – things could end up for every team in the competition in the season’s final week.
NSW Waratahs
1st in conference, 2nd overall, 9-1-5, 44 points
vs Brumbies (H)
The Waratahs are in no danger of surrendering the Australian conference title, meaning they’ll be guaranteed a home final. However, a loss to the Brumbies here could see them fall to third – likely setting up a difficult quarterfinal against a New Zealand side.
At best, the Tahs can hold onto second place and line up a quarterfinal against the Rebels or Jaguares. A loss (without the bonus point) will likely see them leapfrogged by the Lions and forced to host the Highlanders instead.
Melbourne Rebels
2nd in conference, 8th overall, 7-8, 25 points
vs Highlanders (A)
Melbourne are a decent chance of featuring in their first ever finals campaign, but they have to navigate a tricky final weekend if they’re to punch their postseason ticket. They’ll enter the match against the Highlanders as underdogs, but they could climb up to seventh and avoid the Crusaders with an upset win.
It’s not all doom and gloom if they lose, although if they do they’ll need the Jaguares to defeat the Sharks – bonus point loss or not. An outright loss and a bonus point win by the Brumbies, although unlikely, would also see them knocked out.
ACT Brumbies
3rd in conference, 10th overall, 6-9, 30 points
vs Waratahs (A)
The Brumbies are all but finished for 2018. They need a bonus point away victory over the Waratahs to even be a chance of sneaking in, and even then, they need the Rebels to get badly beaten by the Highlanders and the Jaguares to hold off the Sharks in Durban.
It’s all but over for the Brumbies this season. (Photo by Mark Nolan/Getty Images)
It would be quite the story if they sneak in, but it’s definitely an outside chance at best.
Queensland Reds
4th in conference, 13th overall, 5-10, 23 points
vs Sunwolves (H)
Queensland should be able to finish their season off on a positive note against the Sunwolves at home, but they won’t be featuring in the 2018 finals. They can’t climb any higher with a win, although an upset loss could see them fall even further if the Bulls upset the Lions.
Sunwolves
5th in conference, 15th overall, 3-12, 14 points
vs Reds (A)
It may be over for the Sunwolves, but they’ve shown some positive signs of late, claiming two wins from their last five games. While they were embarrassed in the end against the Waratahs last week, they held their own for the first half and would love to finish the season off with another win.
Crusaders
1st in conference, 1st overall, 13-2, 58 points
vs Blues (H)
Another season, another finals appearance for the Crusaders. They’ve wrapped up the New Zealand conference and top spot overall in the competition. The only thing they’ve got to play for against the Blues is the preservation of a 14-match winning streak at home.
Hurricanes
2nd in conference, 4th overall, 11-4, 50 points
vs Chiefs (A)
The Hurricanes can’t move any higher than second and would need to suffer an utter demolition against the Chiefs to fall to third.
Their final round match will instead serve as an interesting entree to when these sides clash again in the quarterfinals.
Chiefs
3rd in conference, 5th overall, 10-5, 45 points
vs Hurricanes (A)
As above, the Chiefs would need to truly put the Hurricanes through the wringer if they’re to wrestle second place – and the home final – away from their likely quarterfinal opponents.
(Marty Melville/Getty Images)
They only way they’ll fall out of third is if they lose without a bonus point, and the Highlanders re-write the record books against the Rebels.
Highlanders
4th in conference, 6th overall, 9-6, 40 points
vs Rebels (H)
The Highlanders are assured a finals spot and, while they likely have little room to move upwards, they could come down the ladder with a loss.
They will start the favourites over the Rebels, but a poor points differential means they need a performance reminiscent of Australia against Namibia in 2003 if they’re to unseat the Chiefs in fifth.
A loss to Melbourne, coupled with a Jaguares win over the Sharks, would see the Highlanders fall to seventh and be forced to travel internationally for their quarterfinal.
Blues
5th in conference, 14th overall, 4-11, 22 points
vs Crusaders (A)
Every team in the New Zealand conference is headed to the finals, except the Blues. The Auckland-based side have been the conference’s punching bag all season and, unfortunately, have nothing to gain but pride with an enormous upset over the Crusaders in the last week.
Lions
1st in conference, 3rd overall, 8-7, 41 points
vs Bulls (H)
The Lions have struggled for consistency this season after back-to-back campaigns atop the conference table. They still hold onto the lead for now, and could either rise to second or fall into a wildcard spot this weekend.
A win will obviously secure them the conference title and set up a likely clash with the Highlanders. If the Waratahs falter, they’ll climb to second overall and likely take on the Jaguares.
The Jaguares, however, could overtake them for the conference top spot if they beat the Sharks and the Lions lose.
Jaguares
2nd in conference, 7th overall, 9-6, 38 points
vs Sharks (A)
The Argentinian side are assured of a spot in the finals, but could overtake the Lions in the South African conference if they knock off the Sharks and the Lions lose to the Bulls.
They’ll enter the away match in Durban as underdogs, however. While they’re likely to retain the seventh seed – thus avoiding the Crusaders in the quarterfinals – they could fall to eighth if the Rebels upset the Highlanders.
Sharks
3rd in conference, 9th overall, 6-1-8, 32 points
vs Jaugares (H)
They may currently sit on the outer, but the Sharks are a very good chance of sneaking into the finals at the death – but they’ll need results elsewhere to go their way.
Can the Sharks sneak in to the finals? (Photo by Steve Haag/Gallo Images via Getty Images)
Firstly, they need to hope the Highlanders can keep the Rebels at bay when the two sides clash on Saturday afternoon (AEST). Provided the Melburnians don’t get up, it’s a simple case of defeating the travelling Jaguares on the Sunday.
They’ll be setting themselves up for a likely shellacking by the Crusaders, but a finals appearance is a finals appearance, right?
Stormers
4th in conference, 11th overall, 6-10, 29 points
Bye
The Stormers were eliminated from finals contention a while ago and, given they have the bye this weekend, are certainly no chances of improving their position.
They’ll just be hoping the Lions can take care of the Bulls so they can avoid a last-place finish in the conference.
Bulls
5th in conference, 12th overall, 6-9, 29 points
vs Lions (A)
The Bulls may be out of the running for 2018, but they have a good chance to play spoiler with the conference-leading Lions. A loss will consign them to last place in the conference, whereas a win will see them leapfrog the idle Stormers and potentially even hit third if the Sharks go down.
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