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GWS are on the march, but is their season already a waste?

Jeremy Cameron. (Photo by Mark Nolan/Getty Images)
Expert
17th July, 2018
77

Greater Western Sydney might be one of the best three teams in the competition, but have they left their run too late?

The Giants are a good football team. They played in preliminary finals in both 2016 and 2017, losing to the eventual premiers both times.

Not only that, they got the closest to the Western Bulldogs and Richmond in each finals series, playing the best footy either of those premiers faced in September.

In a nutshell, they were possibly the second-best team in each of those Septembers.

Looking back to the ladder after Round 4 this year, GWS sat on top, with three wins and a percentage of 139.8. Sitting in second and third back then were the ladder leaders now – West Coast and Richmond.

The Giants had crushed the Dogs and Fremantle at home, and beaten Collingwood at the MCG (a result that can be held in higher regard now than it seemed at the time). Their only loss at the time was to Sydney, in a game where they had more inside 50s and more scoring shots. It looked like they were on their way again.

Then, the wheels fell off the Ferrari.

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Looking only at Rounds 5-10, GWS had one win, one draw, four losses, and a percentage of 74. Their average score was 62 points. They played only one top-seven team in that run.

It’s a six-week period that may cost them a meaningful shot at this year’s flag.

Since then, the Giants have played six matches for five wins and a loss, with a percentage of 135. They’re only failure was to West Coast in Perth, a game they were the better side for three-and-a-bit quarters, and again had more scoring shots and more inside 50s.

Statistically, they’re about an eight-goal better side now than they were during the flat patch. They’re back to their 2016-17 best, which is pointy-end-of-September good.

Richmond and West Coast are now seen as the best two teams in the competition – GWS has played them both in the last fortnight, and could easily have two wins for their troubles. They’re probably in the best three teams in it right now, with those other two.

But can they make finals? If they do, is a top-six spot in their grasp? Can they charge all the way to an unlikely top-four berth?

Toby Greene GWS Giants AFL 2017 tall

Toby Greene chats to Callan Ward (Photo by Adam Trafford/AFL Media/Getty Images)

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The Tigers and Eagles look to be tracking for 17 wins each, which should be enough to secure them coveted top two positions and home finals all the way through being in their control.

The Giants are currently on 9.5 wins, and it’s quite possible they’ll need 14.5 in order to make it. That means they need to win five of their last six.

They have two ‘gimmes’, against St Kilda and Carlton, which takes them to 11.5

Their other four games are not going to be easy – they travel to Port this week and Melbourne in the last round, opponents that are both hungrily eyeing off top-four positions. It goes without saying they will be tough propositions.

GWS also have home games against Adelaide and Sydney, where you would give them the edge. The Crows might be out of the finals race by then, and thus ripe for the picking, while the Swans should be far closer to full strength than they are now.

Splitting these four ‘eight point’ games is not an option for GWS to be a threat. They will either miss finals or finish seventh or eighth, and travel all over the country if they want to go deep into September.

The Power were one of the form teams of the competition before dropping an unforgiveable loss to Fremantle last round. They are on the rebound, and GWS simply must take them down or it will become all too hard.

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The Giants have turned their season around, that much is clear. They have the talent, history and form to suggest they are one of the best teams in the league.

Unfortunately for them, 2018 looks destined to go down as a wasted season.

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