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With second and seventh position on the ladder separated by just two points, the race for the 2018 premiership shapes as one of the closest in recent history.
If you have come here for betting advice, turn away. After all, I was one of those people at the start of the year who had the Eels and Cowboys in the top four, and Warriors and Tigers fighting it out for the spoon.
I clearly haven’t learnt from my mistakes, because I’m back to give it another go.
Of the eight teams that remain in the hunt for the title, only four are genuine contenders.
These are the other four – the pretenders.
Why they’ll win it
With Matt Gillett, Alex Glenn and Josh McGuire sidelined at various points during the year, Wayne Bennett needed something special. He found it in a host of previously unheralded rookies.
Tevita Pangai Jr, Joe Ofahengaue and Jaydn Su’A have all answered the call and established themselves as the club’s future. The latter unfortunately suffered a broken ankle in last week’s 26-6 loss to the Warriors.
But with Glenn and McGuire both back, and Gillett nearing his return, Brisbane possess one of the most underrated packs in the league.
Why they won’t
Behind strong forwards, Bennett simply needs more from halves Anthony Milford and Kodi Nikorima. Both are talented playmakers but they are too similar, while their ability to dictate play on the big stage is questionable.
This is where Andrew McCullough comes in.
His long-range kicking game was previously invaluable to Brisbane’s success.
Only last year, the 28-year-old had 1775 kicking metres from 18 games, as the Broncos stormed to the preliminary finals. In 2018, however, from 15 matches, he has just 658 kicking metres to his name.
McCullough must take greater responsibility, as too often the side’s last-tackle options have been poor.
(Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)
The Broncos have also struggled to find that ‘killer instinct’ that the top sides have.
They may have demolished the Titans 34-0 a fortnight ago, but after their 20-point loss to the Warriors, it seems like that type of performance will continue to elude Brisbane.
Discounting the victory over the Gold Coast, the Broncos’ biggest win this year has been by just nine points. If they weren’t losing by much this wouldn’t be a problem. Unfortunately, five of their side’s seven losses this year have been by 13 points or more.
They look mere cannon-fodder in this year’s finals series, which speaks to the strength of the competition in 2018.
In any other season, the Broncos would be premiership contenders, but in this top eight, they will be bundled out of the finals race in the first week.
Verdict
Knocked out in the qualifying finals.
Why they’ll win it
They won’t.
On their day, Stephen Kearney’s men are world-beaters. You only had to see their performance last week, when they dismantled the Broncos 26-6.
This was a Brisbane side who had thrashed the Titans 34-0 the week prior. And now they were made to look second-rate. But…
Why they won’t
The gap between the Warriors’ best and worst is far too big. Only a fortnight ago they were embarrassed 36-4 by the second-string Panthers.
If you look at their spine, you can understand why the New Zealanders are rated so highly.
Roger Tuivasa-Sheck doesn’t just have electric footwork, but also saves countless tries. Their halves pairing of Blake Green and Shaun Johnson is the perfect balance of organised and creative.
Then, at hooker, they have one of the best in the game, Issac Luke.
(AAP Image/David Rowland)
Yet, against an inexperienced Penrith outfit, they were outplayed and out-enthused.
They are not the only ones to blame though, as their forward pack withered under pressure, running for just 542 metres compared to the Panthers’ 1155.
Like the Broncos, the Kiwis lose confidence when things don’t go away. Four of their six losses this year have been by 13 points or more, including 50-10 and 32-0 losses to the Storm and Roosters respectively.
The finals are built for those who are not just physically dominant but mentally equipped to handle the pressure. The Warriors? Well, they just aren’t ready yet.
Verdict
Knocked out in the qualifying finals.
Why they’ll win it
In many ways, Cronulla are similar to the Storm. Their wins aren’t always pretty, but more often than not, they get it done.
Put simply, they are a frustrating team to play. And this is their greatest asset.
If you look at their six-game winning streak earlier in the year, the only complete performance was a 48-10 win against the Knights. The other victories were by an average of just four points.
However, unlike the Broncos, they have only lost one game by more than 13 points. The ability to grind out hard-fought wins is their specialty.
Just as important to the Sharks’ premiership chances in 2018 is the experience of their forward pack.
With an average age of 29 years once Luke Lewis returns, it is understandable that some may argue Cronulla’s pack is simply old and nothing else.
However, with age comes experience – 1895 games of it.
It was on full display last week, as while Shane Flanagan’s big men didn’t do anything fancy, they got through their work and successfully contained Penrith’s imposing pack.
Creativity isn’t something completely lost in Cronulla’s ageing forwards though. Led by Andrew Fifita, second-phase play has ensured the perfect balance between hard running and skill.
Why they won’t
Matt Moylan may have guided the Sharks to a last-start win over the Panthers, yet the concern is whether he and Chad Townsend can be just as dominant when it counts.
Cronulla’s new five-eighth has a tendency to go missing when his presence is most needed.
(Photo by Brett Hemmings/Getty Images)
His effort against Newcastle earlier in the year, in which he bagged six try-assists and five line-break assists, showed exactly what he is capable of when playing with confidence.
However, facing an opposition of Newcastle’s quality in the finals isn’t going to happen.
It is far more likely Moylan will find himself with the ball in hand, scores locked up at 12 points apiece. Traditionally, Sharks fans would look to James Maloney to guide them home in this situation. He is no longer at the Shire.
The responsibility now falls on the shoulders of Townsend and Moylan. It looks a step too far for the pair.
Verdict
Knocked out in the semi-finals.
Why they’ll win
Surprisingly, Penrith’s crippling injury toll may be a blessing in disguise.
Except for Dylan Edwards, the Panthers will be pretty much full-strength come September. The likes of Reagan Campbell-Gillard and Josh Mansour have enjoyed lengthy spells on the sideline, and should return refreshed and full of energy.
The same can’t be said for the Dragons, who have had a disrupted representative period, and still are yet to give all of their Origin stars a rest. As a result, they were lethargic against the Tigers last week.
In contrast, while the Nepean Hospital was filling up, Penrith’s conveyer belt of juniors kept delivering.
The depth at the foot of the mountains is incredible and should create a competitive environment that will get the most out of their players.
The competition for spots is particularly fierce in Penrith’s second row, which is one of the best in the competition. Fijian powerhouse Viliame Kikau has enjoyed a breakout season and has developed into a genuine strike weapon for the Panthers.
Their left edge of Josh Mansour, Waqa Blake and Kikau can certainly match the destructive trio of John Sutton, Greg Inglis and Robert Jennings at South Sydney.
(AAP Image/Brendan Esposito)
2018 has also been a year that has seen Isaah Yeo finally receive the accolades he deserves, as one of the league’s most reliable and hard-working performers, constantly tightening up his side’s defence in the middle.
Add the explosive James Fisher-Harris at lock, and it’s clear Penrith’s forward pack can deliver on all fronts.
Why they won’t
If you look at the top three teams in this year’s competition – the Dragons, Rabbitohs and Storm – there is one thing they all have in common: an experienced and in-form hooker. If you took either Cameron McInnes, Damien Cook or Cameron Smith out of their sides, the results would not be good.
While Sione Katoa is certainly a promising prospect for the future, the Tongan international lacks the experience of his other likely finals counterparts.
The same can be said for interchange hooker Wayde Egan.
Another issue that could hold the Panthers back is their lack of direction in attack, especially in the opposition’s 20-metre zone.
Penrith, on the back of their rampaging forwards, have had no problems rolling up the field. But while the best teams capitalise on this, the Panthers seem clueless at times.
This may come down to the awkward combination of James Maloney and Nathan Cleary. Both players are brilliant individually and have no issues taking control.
At the beginning of the season, the former Shark assured Penrith fans this was still Cleary’s team. However, when the 20-year-old went down with a knee injury, Maloney took charge and guided the Panthers to win five of their next seven games.
(AAP Image/Michael Chambers)
Now that they are back together, Cleary appears to have taken a backseat. It hasn’t necessarily cost them, but the Panthers need more in attack from their halfback if they are going to go deep into the finals.
Recent history also suggests the Panthers may find it hard to get past half of the sides currently sitting in the top eight.
The Storm and Sharks are their biggest hurdle. Penrith has won just one of their past 18 matches against Melbourne and two of their past 12 with Cronulla. They also struggle against the Rabbitohs and Roosters, having only won three of their past ten meetings with both teams.
The Panthers are one of the league’s most exciting, young prospects, but I still question whether they have the mental toughness to lose the offloads and grind it out with the more experienced teams.
Verdict
Knocked out in the semi-finals.
So, there you have it. Those are the pretenders. Tomorrow it’s the contenders, including my tip for the title.
In the meantime, if you have just had your premiership dreams crushed and think I’ve got it wrong again, let me know below.
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