Heading into Round 18 of the 2018 AFL season, the stakes have never been higher for Geelong and Melbourne, who are going head-to-head on Saturday night for the second time this season.
The Demons sit precariously in sixth spot, with ten wins, six losses and an admirable percentage. The Cats aren’t too far behind, in eighth spot, with nine wins and seven losses.
With a logjam of ten sides all pushing for a spot in the top eight as the season winds down, a win here will mean the world in the weeks to come, while for the loser the window towards premiership success will squeeze even tighter.
The pair last collided in the opening round, with Geelong getting over the line at the MCG by three points, in a thrilling finish involving a heartbreaking miss from a set shot by Max Gawn.
Taking a remarkable contested mark just 25 metres out from goal and with essentially no angle to speak of, the Brownlow Medal frontrunner sprayed the quick to his left and sealed a Cats win with just ten seconds left on the clock.
Max Gawn of the Demons reacts after missing a shot on goal. (Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
Before that encounter, the ledger belonged to the Cats, recording a 29-point win against the Demons in early 2017 and an agonising 111-point thrashing in late 2016.
Melbourne’s last win against Geelong was in Round 12 of 2015.
But heading back to Round 1 of this season, the tale of the tape for Melbourne was wasted opportunity – a familiar theme in 2018 for the boys in red and blue.
The Dees led the inside 50 count 64-41 but at the same time mustered up just 31 scoring shots, while the Cats produced 27 at a much higher rate of return.
Melbourne won the tackle count 72-45, and smashed their opponents in the hitouts (51-30) and total clearances (44-36).
Geelong also didn’t produce a single tackle inside Melbourne’s forward 50, a stunning result for a side that would later develop into a top-tier defensive outfit.
Heading into this encounter, the Cats have conceded the third-fewest points this season, giving up 1157 at an average of under 73. Only Richmond and Port Adelaide have managed to lock down on opposition sides with more success.
Melbourne, conversely, have given up 1290 at an average of just more than 80 per game.
At the other end of the ground however, the Demons are the AFL’s highest-scoring side – and it’s not even close, hitting the scoreboard with 1680 points at an average of 105 per match.
Next best are ladder leaders Richmond and West Coast, while Geelong have 1383, at an average of a little more than 86 points per game.
So the Cats are very good at the stopping goals from going through and the Demons very good at kicking them. Got it.
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It feels like, once again, the outcome will be decided by whether or not Melbourne are able to follow through on the chances they create. They are a staggering inside-50 producing machine in 2018, averaging more than 61 per game as the number one ranked side.
It’s a borderline certainty that the Dees are going to send the ball into the forward arc over and over again, it’s just a matter of an effective delivery to forwards and then the simplicity of conversion.
If the same Melbourne that kicked 23.8 against Adelaide in late May show up, then Geelong are toast.
If that coin lands upside down however, and the Dees that produced a miserly 9.11 from a staggering 69 inside 50s against Port in late June arrive, then the Cats are a serious chance at a big win.
Whatever goes down, September is well and truly within reach, and both sides are too close to the middle of the table for comfort.
The days and nights of acceptable levels of waning form have come and gone, and if neither side is able to produce a consistent and effective brand of football from this point onwards, they can kiss 2018 goodbye.
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