For all the talk in the build-up about how bad last Friday night’s match-up looked, I at least managed to convince myself it’d be a contest.
I was wrong, of course – that’s been a running theme with this season’s forecasts.
Tonight’s match, however, appears much more one-sided. It’s hard to make a case for how the Saints can challenge the reigning premiers, which is a little weird when you consider they won by 67 points about 12 months ago when these sides last met at this venue.
They’re even in decent form, having won three of their past four matches, including an impressive showing against the Demons. Their two highest scores of the year (119 against Melbourne and 116 against Carlton) have come in the past three weeks.
That increased scoring is being driven by points from takeaways. On the season St Kilda are ranked 13th in the league for points from opposition turnovers at 46.4 points a game. Over the past three weeks, however, that number jumps to 62.3 points a game, fifth in the league over that admittedly short period.
The signs have been positive for St Kilda that they might finally be playing the footy they expected to be producing from the start of the season. Classy forward Tim Membrey managed a miserable five goals and 15 behinds in his first seven games of the season; in his past seven, he’s booted 19.5.
Jack Billings and Jack Steele are both coming off excellent games. Jack Newnes bagged three goals against the Blues and Jack Steven had 33 touches and a couple of goals – Christ, is there anyone in this side not named Jack?
Jade Gresham has had a nice stretch and booted six goals the last time these sides met, and Jake Carlisle remains top-five in the league for intercept marks at 3.7 a game.
Maybe St Kilda have figured it out…or maybe they’ve played a soft schedule recently and managed to beat one good team who might not be quite as good as they think they are.
(Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Media/Getty Images)
We’ll have a better idea tonight, because these Tigers are a different animal.
St Kilda’s impressive 62.3 points from turnovers over the past three weeks is a handful of points fewer than the No.1-ranked Tigers are averaging over the entire season (66.8).
Despite being the league’s 18th-ranked clearance differential team, and 13th for contested-possession differential, Richmond are dominating the territory battle against most sides, getting 8.7 more inside-50 entries on average (ranked third) – even in last week’s loss to the Giants, Richmond won the inside-50 count 64-57, but paid the price for poor conversion.
The Saints are 13th for inside-50 differential, conceding two more entries on average. To make matters worse, they’re giving up a goal on 25.2 percent of their opponents’ entries, which is better than only the Dogs and the Blues.
If the Saints can’t penetrate Richmond’s forward press, they’ll be mauled like so many other teams in the past 12 months – the Tigers get almost 35 points a game from turnover chains that start in their attacking half (also ranked first).
Alex Rance remains the anchor behind the ball, averaging a league-best 10.9 intercept possessions a game of which 3.7 are marks. Nick Vlastuin is their next-best defender, and his 8.1 intercept possessions and 2.8 intercept marks put him in the top-10 of each category as well. David Astbury is top-25 in both categories.
Put those three – and the underrated Dylan Grimes – behind a manic forward group that includes relentless chasers Daniel Rioli, Jason Castagna and even Jack Riewoldt and you’ve got a team that’s going to be extremely hard to score against. Of players who have played at least 10 games this season, only five have had more inside-50 tackles than Riewoldt.
Damien Hardwick’s men are coming off yet another loss outside of Victoria in a performance they’d rather forget against the Giants. Not that their poor interstate record counts for much in the Docklands – even if the fans of some MCG tenants talk about Etihad Stadium as though it’s on a different continent.
I expect them to bounce back tonight and flex their muscles against a bottom-six side with a 10-goal win.
That’s my Friday night forecast. What’s yours?
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