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The 2018 NRL premiership is headed to...

Sam Burgess of the Rabbitohs. (AAP Image/Richard Wainwright)
Expert
23rd July, 2018
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With six rounds to go in the 2018 NRL season, the Telstra Premiership is well and truly up for grabs.

A meagre four points separates first place from eighth spot on the ladder, which means that every single game remaining on the schedule for those teams has immense importance. The run into the finals will see teams jockeying for optimal positions for the first weekend of the finals, along with looking to gain a mental edge over opponents by inflicting doubt-inducing losses before the business end of the season.

So who will actually win the premiership from those eight teams?

Well, we should call ‘time off’ for a second first, because it may even be a little presumptuous to only look at the clubs currently in the top eight.

Though many proclaim the teams for the finals series to have been locked in weeks ago, the Wests Tigers brilliant play has ensured they are more than just a mathematical chance of making the eight. The Tigers have serious momentum, having knocked over premiership heavyweights, the Rabbitohs and Dragons, in successive weeks.

The mid-season additions of Moses Mbye and Robbie Farah have shored up two positions Wests were weak in, providing the team with a significant boost. Ivan Cleary has proven himself to be an excellent coach, and the Tigers will be a tough out should they happen to squeeze into the finals series.

However, I think they’re only that: a potentially tough ‘out’, rather than a realistic chance to go all the way. I can’t see them hoisting the trophy at season’s end.

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At this point, I know Canberra fans are dying for me to say they can still make the finals too, but sorry, they can’t. Nor do they deserve to. Even allowing for some – ahem – ‘unfortunate’ decisions against them last Friday night, Canberra have thrown away too many games this year, and are not worthy finals participants. Save your vitriol, Raiders fans – painfully, you know I’m right.

However, that still leaves us with six quality teams duking it out for the premiership. Eight, if you want to count the Broncos and Warriors.

Spoiler alert: I don’t.

I just think both of those teams are too inconsistent to be true competition contenders.

If it feels like we’ve been saying that about the Warriors since Wayne Bennett was a little boy, it’s because we have. Like an annoying shower head, New Zealand have run hot and cold all year, in-line with their long-held franchise reputation.

They’ve played some truly incredibly football, and some truly incredibly dumb football. That Jekyll and Hyde personality is rarely the recipe for premiership success, as you need to win three or four games in a row against good – and smart – opposition to win the premiership. I’m not sure the Warriors have that in them.

Meanwhile, the Broncos lack the elite-level halves – or even ‘half’ – required to win a grand final. Keeping with the inconsistency theme, five-eighth Anthony Milford wouldn’t look out of place in a Warriors jersey, such is his ability to dominate or disappear. He’s also been far more of the latter this season, anyway. To make matters worse, Brisbane have tried a number of options at halfback this year, with no one being consistently convincing.

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That leaves the Panthers, Sharks, Roosters, Rabbitohs, Dragons and Storm. It’s a brave prognosticator that super confidently picks any team from that bunch.

The Panthers have battled injuries and representative duties, both of which have tested their depth, yet still find themselves within striking distance of the minor premiership. With a good mix of experience and youth, and size and speed, you’d be crazy to think Penrith aren’t a real chance of winning their first premiership since 2003.

Viliame Kikau of the Panthers is tackled during match against Rabbitohs.

Viliame Kikau of the Panthers (Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images).

The Sharks are just two seasons removed from their first ever competition win, and have talent right across the park. Five-eighth Matt Moylan struggled early in the year, and it looked like the half swap with James Maloney was highway robbery by the Panthers, however Moylan has been sensational of late.

Some people have been calling Cronulla an underdog, which I think is ridiculous – they’re as good as any team in the comp.

The Roosters were my pre-season pick for the premiership, but they had some bumpy moments to start the season, and I worried if maybe I’d got a little over-excited by the signings of Cooper Cronk and James Tedesco.

Truth be told, I did, but more than that, I forgot that it takes a little time to adjust to having a new halfback and fullback. Now 19 rounds into the season, the Chooks are starting to look much more cohesive, and very dangerous. Just ask Manly…

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Before the Bunnies lost to the Tigers, they’d rattled off nine wins in a row, and had looked very impressive in most of them. They’d also won in a number of different ways: ugly, tough, explosive, clinical, blowing teams away, etc.

Apart from talent and experience, perhaps the biggest weapon Souths have is their coach. Rookie Anthony Seibold has been a revelation, having his team well prepared each week, and perhaps most crucially, enjoying their football. It’s a great combination.

The Dragons have relied on an impressive forward pack, talented halves, and reliable backs, to be placed atop of the ladder for the entirety of the season thus far. They were in very few people’s top four at the start of the season, but as a Bulldogs fan, I knew all too well that James Graham’s leadership and winning moxie would be invaluable, and ensure they were a force this season.

I still have question marks over their ability to execute when placed under extreme pressure, but they simply may not let teams put them under any.

James Graham

James Graham of the St George Illawarra Dragons. (Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)

Lastly, we have the defending premiers and ladder leaders, the Storm. Other teams are talented, but Melbourne have representative players throughout the roster, and two of the game’s all-time greats at hooker and fullback.

They’ve also got a fairly handy coach at the helm. The Storm are rightfully rated the favourites to win the competition, but it is worth pointing out that the NRL has never had back-to-back premiers, such is the difficulty in backing up from winning the year before. Can the Storm be the first NRL team to be repeat winners? I can’t see why not.

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If you put a gun to my head and asked me to pick one, I’d find it very hard to bet against Melbourne. However, hopefully you don’t have a gun, and considering they’re the favourites, a Storm selection is also a tad boring. So I’ll pick . . .

. . . the Bunnies.

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