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Rarely can a season have had so many permutations heading into the final five rounds.
Every result is crucial as so many teams are on a knife’s edge. Every goal, for or against, carries weight.
Geelong beat Melbourne after the siren in one of the best games of the year, and their reward was dropping out of the eight after starting the round inside it.
Adelaide entered Round 17 in 11th place on the ladder and two games out of the eight. They’ve since beaten Geelong and escaped from the Gabba with the four points. Both wins were full of merit, yet now the Crows find themselves in 12th.
Sydney were fourth after Round 15, and in the three games have lost two (including a humiliating defeat to Gold Coast at the SCG after being five goals up) and beaten North by a solitary kick, yet somehow remain in fourth.
Nothing can be taken for granted, and there are banana skins everywhere. Almost every round in the back half of the season has seen a team slip on one.
West Coast, supposedly impenetrable in Perth, were whipped by an Essendon sitting 11 spots below them on the ladder.
In Round 15, Geelong allowed the Western Bulldogs to pip them and Melbourne showed all their trademark mental weakness in going down to St Kilda.
In Round 17, Hawthorn were brought undone by Brisbane down in their Tasmanian fortress after being in control of the game. Port were limp against Fremantle in Perth in an unforgivable display.
And of course, Saturday saw the upset of the season with the aforementioned Gold Coast victory over Sydney. Ladder predictors were thrown into absolute turmoil after that result, as were Sydney’s finals chances.
West Coast are back on track after a midseason lull that was always going to happen, particularly once they got injuries to Josh Kennedy, Jack Darling and Mark LeCras. Nic Naitanui’s ACL will have no material impact on the Eagles premiership chances.
GWS are charging, having found an excellent balance between pressure football, defence and attack, and are now hard to back against securing a top-four spot. Sydney currently sit in fourth but are a dead team walking.
Port fluctuates, as they seem to have ever done under Ken Hinkley. It’s hard to know what you’re going to get from them – quarter to quarter, game to game, season to season.
When Melbourne finally figure out how to stop beating themselves, they’ll start beating the opposition. The future is theirs for the taking, and it’s not too late for them to put it all together and threaten the flag this year.
Hawthorn and North aren’t good enough but have easier draws than the better sides above them, which will keep things interesting. Geelong aren’t either, but they’ll always be in the conversation with the individual brilliance of Dangerfield, Ablett, Selwood and Hawkins.
Essendon and Adelaide are coming from too far back, with only one real ‘gimme’ each to the bank in the run home. They can cause a headache or two though.
And then there is Richmond and Collingwood.
(Photo by Michael Dodge/Getty Images)
The Tigers stand atop the football world right now. As reigning premier, we know they have the quality and the temperament to get the job done, but just as importantly the ability to peak in September. They’ve been able to maintain the mindset of being the hunter rather than the hunted, and it serves them well.
Collingwood is looking up from underneath, intent on taking the crown. Given Richmond’s peerless record at the MCG, where the grand final will be played, many feel that a co-tenant is football’s best chance to derail the Tiger train.
They might be right.
Watching the Pies pressure around the ball is like seeing a clone of Richmond. Collingwood’s weakness, a lack of height in defence, will not be a problem against the Tigers. Their forward-line is multi-faceted and dynamic.
On the whole, the Pies have quite an unconventional team. As the Western Bulldogs did in 2016. As Richmond did in 2017. If you can throw a different look at the competition, and believe in what you’ve got, anything is possible.
The question mark over Collingwood is still whether they can match it with the top sides. They’ve already lost to Richmond, West Coast and GWS this year, who are probably the best three teams in it.
They get the chance to stamp their credentials all over the premiership race this weekend when they take on the Tigers this Saturday afternoon at the MCG with 90,000 people in attendance.
If the Pies can win, they establish themselves as the absolute real deal. More than that, they will show the rest of the competition that Richmond are beatable at the MCG, and the premiership race will be blown wide open.
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