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Essendon vs Sydney on Friday night offers us a tale of two teams who are pretty much the opposite – one low on the ladder and in form, one high on the ladder and not.
On one hand Essendon have the home ground advantage, on the other hand Sydney have a much better record away from home than they do at it this year.
These two teams have given us some classic finishes in recent years, in fact six of the last eleven matches between them have been decided by two goals or less, four by less than one goal.
The telling stat? Sydney tend to get on top. They’ve won the last eight in a row. I’ll be picking them to buck recent form and do it again.
Richmond and Collingwood on Saturday is up there with the most anticipated matches of the year so far.
The Tigers have an almighty record on the line – the chance to record the most consecutive wins ever seen at the MCG by a single club.
I suspect they’ll get it too. While Collingwood are a very good team, it’s hard to think of something good they do that Richmond don’t do better.
Adelaide and Melbourne on Saturday night disappointingly won’t be the return of Jake Lever to Adelaide Oval, but still looks like a match drenched in drama.
Both of these teams come into the game with the hope of playing finals but the loser will leave with their season hanging by a thread.
I reckon a passionate and vocal home crowd will get the Crows over the line.
North often has a significant home ground advantage at Blundstone Arena as they manage the windy nature of the ground better than any other team knows how.
It should make it a cracking contest with West Coast, but I reckon the Eagles will just be too strong for the Kangaroos.
Geelong, GWS, Gold Coast, Port Adelaide and Hawthorn are my other tips this week, with the Giants getting a win over St Kilda the lock of the week.
Cameron Rose
Sydney, Richmond, Geelong, GWS, Carlton, Melbourne, North Melbourne, Port Adelaide, Hawthorn
In theory, Essendon should be primed to take Sydney down, but in practise the Swans will probably find a way to win.
Collingwood have still only beaten one team higher than 10th, and none in the top six, but they are coming in hot after a complete display against North. Sticking with Richmond, who can lock in top two with a win.
Geelong and GWS should win. Going with Carlton to record their second win of the season, against a Suns outfit that might have a key down after an enormous win last week.
Melbourne have bounced back pretty well from bad defeats this year, and a trip away to Adelaide might be just what they need after losing to Geelong in spectacular fashion.
North’s season won’t be over if they lose to West Coast, but it will be on life support. Tipping Tassie to be to their advantage and keep their finals hopes alive.
Port to beat the Dogs and Hawks over Freo, but neither will want to take it lightly.
TomC
Essendon, Richmond, Geelong, GWS, Gold Coast, Adelaide, West Coast, Port Adelaide, Fremantle
Geez, who knows with Sydney? If there’s ever going to be a point of no return for the inconsistent Swans, it would be last week’s abject performance. The Dons have everything to play for and every reason to be confident.
There’s a lot to look forward to in the Tigers versus the Magpies at the MCG on a Saturday afternoon. Might not be the last time this year we see it. But at the moment you have to back Richmond.
(Photo by Adam Trafford/AFL Media/Getty Images)
Gold Coast’s win last week seemed to come from nowhere. I don’t know if it means they’re better than we thought they were, but I’m still pretty sure Carlton are as bad as we think. So the Suns at home.
It’ll be barely two months since the Demons belted Adelaide in the Northern Territory, but the Crows form has recovered somewhat while Melbourne haven’t quite gone on with it since then. Adelaide have proven to be a resilient side and they can get over the line at home.
In a tight contest I’d normally back the home team in the Kangaroos, but the Eagles are getting back somewhere near full strength and their best form. They’ll show they’re a level above North.
Jay Croucher wrote this week about how frustrating the Power have become. It’s certainly true and I don’t feel much confidence backing them away from home, but surely they have too much firepower for the Dogs.
Hawthorn start favourites against the Dockers, but the Hawks’ form is variable and on a long road trip Freo might get up.
Elsewhere, the Cats at home over the Lions and GWS to beat the Saints.
| Round 19 | Josh E | Adrian P | Cam R | TomC | The Crowd |
| ESS vs SYD | SYD | SYD | SYD | ESS | SYD |
| RIC vs COL | RIC | RIC | RIC | RIC | RIC |
| GEE vs BL | GEE | GEE | GEE | GEE | GEE |
| GWS vs STK | GWS | GWS | GWS | GWS | GWS |
| GCS vs CAR | GCS | CAR | CAR | GCS | GCS |
| ADE vs MEL | ADE | ADE | MEL | ADE | ADE |
| NM vs WCE | WCE | WCE | NM | WCE | WCE |
| WB vs PA | PA | PA | PA | PA | PA |
| FRE vs HAW | HAW | FRE | HAW | FRE | HAW |
| Last week | 8 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 8 |
| Total | 98 | 100 | 101 | 108 | 109 |