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Melbourne big man Max Gawn is rocketing his way through a season to remember, starring as the competition’s premier ruck option and putting himself in contention for the AFL’s highest individual honour, the Brownlow Medal.
With 18 games under his belt, Gawn has been a staggering threat aerially and at ground level.
He is averaging 16.4 disposals (8.6 contested) at 70 per cent efficiency, to go with 47 hitouts per game, 6.8 score involvements, 4.6 marks (2.3 contested), 3.8 intercept possessions, 2.6 clearances and even 2.4 tackles. He’s also booted ten goals.
Gawn is the number one ranked ruck option via hitouts for the season, with 846, leading Gold Coast’s Jarrod Witts (707) and Collingwood’s Brodie Grundy (679). It ain’t even close.
Gawn is also ranked second in the AFL for contested marks, with 41, trailing only West Coast’s Jeremy McGovern with 49.
As a consequence, Gawn is the third favourite with the bookies for the Brownlow Medal, trailing Hawthorn ball magnet Tom Mitchell and Carlton’s contested possession animal Patrick Cripps.
Gawn has been further praised by the AFL Coaches Association, leading the charge for the MVP Award with 80 votes after Round 19 – ahead of Carlton’s Cripps and Hawthorn’s Mitchell tied for second on 78.
With all this in consideration, surely the bearded viking-apparition is a strong shot at taking home Charlie, as the first ruck to win the award in decades?
No, he’s not.
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Let’s take a look at the key issues keeping the much-loved Melbourne titan away from the silverware.
Tom Mitchell is addicted to playing good footy
Since making the shift to Hawthorn from Sydney, the midfielder has blossomed into a staggering collector of the pill.
Mitchell is now averaging 36.3 disposals per game from 18 games played and covers more than 460 metres gained each time he pulls on the jumper.
To go with an average of just under 40 possession per game, Mitchell has 7.8 clearances, 6.1 tackles, 5.1 inside 50s, and 12 goals.
While many are right to criticise the overall value of a certain percentage of Mitchell’s possessions, at the end of the day you can’t fight that kind of volume.
Mitchell is the first player to reach 50 disposals twice in one season and is the rightful favourite for the Brownlow. Unless the AFL’s umpires have decided to become a lot more critical of the quality of possessions, he is almost sure to snatch the gong in 2018.
The only thing that could really stop him at this stage is another brain fade like the one he suffered against North Melbourne. And even then, this deep into the season, it’s hard to see Mitchell getting suspended for anything short of attempted murder.
Clayton Oliver is snatching up his fair share of the pie
One of the most common issues in the hunt for a Brownlow Medal is fellow teammate snatching up votes, and Gawn is likely to face that foe in the form of Clayton Oliver.
Despite being able to almost count the entirety of his age on his fingers and toes, the midfield dynamo has developed into one of the most damaging players in the centre of the ground.
Oliver is averaging 30.2 disposals from his 18 games played, with 370-plus metres gained from siren to siren. He also averages more than 16 contested disposals, coupling that with 6.9 clearances, 6.8 tackles and 5.1 inside 50s.
Oliver is the second-highest positioned Demon on the AFL Coaches Association’s MVP Award tally board, with 62 votes (fifth).
In comparison, Mitchell faces competition from just Luke Breust, with 41 votes (17th).
AAP Image/Tony McDonough
The Brownlow Medal never goes to ruck
It’s a sad reality, but in the modern era, the Brownlow Medal never goes to defenders, forwards or rucks – it’s always the flashy, high-possession midfielder.
Gawn won’t be the first ruck to enter the vote count as heavily favoured only to perform well below expectation.
North Melbourne’s Todd Goldstein produced what many considered to be the perfect all-round season as a ruck not too long ago and barely polled at all, despite sitting at the top end of the favourites. Fremantle’s Aaron Sandilands did the same.
No ruck options finished in the top ten of the Brownlow Medal in 2017. It was the same story in 2016. 2015 was the exception – Goldstein scraped into the top ten, with 18 votes.
No ruck options to be found in the top ten in 2014, 2013 or 2012. West Coast’s Dean Cox managed to make his mark in 2011, finishing in tenth, with 18 votes.
The highest finishing ruck of late is Sandilands, landing in sixth in 2010, with 20 votes. A stunning effort – but still 11 votes away from a win.
Dustin Martin, Nat Fyfe, Gary Ablett Jr, Trent Cotchin, Sam Mitchell, Chris Judd, Dane Swan, Patrick Dangerfield, Matt Priddis – all these great players overlap in a lot of areas and differentiate themselves in others.
One thing they all definitely do have in common – they’re not playing in the ruck.
Unless Melbourne’s Gawn has had a season that’s rated on metrics unknown to even his most passionate supporters, it’s simply too hard to envision him acquiring the 30-plus votes required to win the Brownlow Medal.
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