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Let’s just pretend yesterday didn’t happen, ok?
The first five games of Round 20 were decided by less than a goal each – the first time so many games had been within a straight kick margin in the history of the competition.
That is the neatest way to summarise what was a truly captivating weekend of football, the kind that not even the most sappy nostalgist could yell at the clouds about.
Each had its own exciting finish. Geelong’s storming fourth-quarter comeback that fell a Gary Ablett junior miss short against Richmond.
Some last minute end to end stuff in Hawthorn’s win over Essendon.
A clutch set shot followed by the opposite version of that from superstar-in-waiting Cam Rayner in North Melbourne’s win over Brisbane.
A goal-that-wasn’t-but-was by Josh Jenkins in another pulsating Showdown that saw the Crows sneak home this time around.
Lance Franklin strutting across the SCG kicking six goals in a tight contest against Collingwood.
It was a 24-hour treat the likes of which we’d not seen before in the AFL.
(Photo by Scott Barbour/Getty Images)
Those games will have faded from the punditry’s collective memory I’m sure; yesterday bore an injury crisis at the Giants, another awful Gold Coast Suns performance, and a shocking off-ball incident involving Andrew Gaff and Andrew Brayshaw in the round-closing derby.
One word on each for now: unfortunate, predictable, shocking. We will colour in the lines later, because the first and last issues in that list are season-defining.
The events of Sunday certainly took some sheen off what was otherwise sparkling round of football that unfolded about as well as a neutral may have hoped.
Every ladder permutation that was ideal for keeping things alive for longer came to pass, save perhaps Hawthorn’s win over Essendon.
Geelong is this week’s unlucky loser, taking Sydney’s place outside of the eight and falling a win off the finals pace in the process.
It is the first time eighth and ninth have been separated by at least one win all season – yep, since the season started – and it comes with just three games remaining.
Not that Geelong should feel too poorly about the state of things.
They became the latest team to push Richmond right to the brink, a stellar final quarter of bullyball almost putting them over the edge against the best fourth-quarter team in the competition.
Right up until that point the Tigers looked to have the game in hand; Geelong was handballing too much, not marking enough, and turning the ball over at an impressive (for Richmond) clip.
It was a familiar tale, though one the Cats ultimately came within a couple of missed shots for goal from turning into a triumph.
Geelong showed they have the mettle to stand with the Tigers – now they’ve just got to work their way into another chance at doing it.
Fortunately for them, the Cats have a more comfortable ride home than most of those above them on the ladder.
Geelong play Hawthorn this weekend, and finish their home and away season with games against Fremantle and the Gold Coast Suns.
The only other team above them with two more games to come against the bottom six is Richmond, who now as such will almost certainly finish the qualifying rounds with this year’s minor premiership.
Other ladder-positive results that came to pass were Adelaide beating Port Adelaide (I would not be surprised if the Power investigate an avenue to protest the result of this game, Siren-gate style – however it’s still unlikely to happen), Sydney beating Collingwood, and North Melbourne beating Brisbane.
It means eight teams are on 11 or 12 wins with three games to go (GWS, now in third, has a draw), and thus anything is in play.
The “top 12” is still a thing for another week, even if both Essendon (11th) and Adelaide (12th) are mathematical propositions at this point.
At a bare minimum both have to win every game they play, and hope that at least two of the current 11 and 12-win teams don’t go any higher than 12 wins.
That will require some pretty crazy, but certainly plausible, stuff to happen. For example, if Port Adelaide goes 0-3, one of Sydney or Melbourne goes 0-3 (and the other 1-2 with the win coming in their Round 21 game against eachother) and Geelong go 1-2 (which would require a loss to either Gold Coast or Fremantle) then both the Bombers and Crows can squeeze into the eight on 13 wins.
Their situations are remarkably delicate, but all they can do is win and hope for the best.
Similarly, there is a path for every team inside the top ten to finish in the top four. For North Melbourne, at the bottom of the logjam, wins out, and every team above them loses at least one of their games against teams currently below North Melbourne, and North Melbourne puts on some extra percentage, then yes it can finish in fourth spot. That one is… somewhat less likely than one of Essendon or Adelaide making the eight though.
So, what do we watch out for this week? Assuming the top 12 take care of the bottom six (as they have in 67 of 78 opportunities in 2018), then it is another Saturday tripleheader that should command our attention.
Hawthorn face Geelong, before West Coast travel to Port Adelaide, ahead of the Giants hosting the Adelaide Crows in Canberra. No matter the outcome, the top eight will be re-shaped once more.
Melbourne then host Sydney, in what could prove to be an elimination final for the loser if things go badly enough.
For two of these clubs, the events of Round 20 will have a material impact on what’s to come from here.
West Coast will almost certainly be without Andrew Gaff for the rest of the season, following his strike on Andrew Brayshaw.
It might have been out of character, it might have been aimed at Brayshaw’s gut, and Gaff certainly appeared to feel as guilty as a professional footballer has ever felt on the back of an incident like this.
But the facts are Gaff elected to strike Brayshaw with a closed fist, and his strike hit Brayshaw in the face, breaking his jaw and messing up his teeth.
GWS will be without Brett Deledio and Dawson Simpson for at least a fortnight each – probably longer in Deledio’s case – at a time when they need to keep their roll going.
(Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Media/Getty Images)
The Giants have surged to third spot on the ladder, and slayed Carlton despite playing at times with 16 players on the field on account of injuries and player management.
That sort of luxury is rarely afforded in this game, a measure of just how comprehensively the Giants outplayed their opponents.
Still, those injuries will hurt, particularly given the Giants appeared to have figured out their best form of themselves with Rory Lobb playing forward and Simpson in the ruck.
They’ll adjust; hell, that’s how they’ve gotten back into the double chance over the past two months.
How quickly things can change. And there’ll be plenty more where that came from in the final three rounds of this captivating AFL season.