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There are three race meetings set down for Monday, with the two New South Wales meetings being my focus. Here are my five plays for the afternoon.
Bet 1: Win – Goulburn Race 1, number one: Art Of More
This looks like a race in two between this bloke and Safe Landing. I’m going with the Team Cummings runner because he does seem to do a bit more right compared to Kurt Goldman’s horse. This horse attempted to lead all the way at Kembla Grange last time and gave a solid enough kick but just weakened late when bloused. He’s got the hard 1300-metre run under the belt, which should leave him well placed for this.
Win odds: $2.90 (Crownbet)
Bet 2: Win – Goulburn Race 4, number one: Song And A Prayer
This looks a good thing at a good things price, but I’d take it. She just looks better than the other horses off the back of a really eye-catching effort over 1400 metres at Kembla last time, where they didn’t go hard in front while she was back near last and had to come wide on the turn. She did a good job to get as close as she did. Blinkers first time, nowhere near as much depth, good draw, Collett sticks – she just wins.
Win odds: $1.75 (Neds)
Bet 3: Win – Quirindi Race 1, number four: Red Braids
Concede Chilcotin has got more upside, but that resumption at Kempsey was an absolute gut-buster and I couldn’t take $2.20. The bet is Red Braids, who is hard fit and in form. She ran over 1200 metres at Newcastle last time in a much stronger race. She should have nearly won but just had no luck in the straight when probing for the run. With normal luck here she’ll look the winner for the most part.
Win odds: $2.45 (Crownbet)
Bet 4: Win – Quirindi Race 2, number one: Certain Doubt
It’s a nothing race so I’ll give him one last look. I was hot on him in the first prep where he had no luck in two runs. Three runs this time in and he’s done pretty much nothing and has done plenty wrong when under pressure. There was a stack of gear changes throughout the prep, and now the crossover noseband is on. If he produces what he did in the first prep, he’ll win. I’d take the $11 or $12 on offer. I think he’ll start shorter.
Win odds: $12; place odds: $2.60 (Sportsbet)
Bet 5: Win – Quirindi Race 4, number one: One Invincible Cat
She looks like another good thing. Kris Lees trains this mare, who won’t be a maiden for much longer. I think she’ll win this. She had a luckless resumption at Gosford when heavily backed, with Louise Day not getting much luck in the straight when trying to build the revs, getting outridden by Amelia Denby on the eventual winner Uncle Sam. She drops a bit in depth, and Andrew Gibbons takes over. Good things price, but I think she’s indeed that.
Win odds: $1.80 (Crownbet)
All odds correct at the time of writing.
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