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The Roar’s AFL expert tips and predictions: Round 22

(Brett Hemmings/AFL Media/Getty Images)
Expert
15th August, 2018
69

With just two weeks left before the end of the home-and-away season there’s a number of matches this week that will shape the finals and the exciting thing about 2018 is they’ve been so hard to predict.

Of course, what is the most exciting thing about 2018 has also been the most frustrating thing about 2018, at least for those of us in the business of tipping.

Melbourne vs West Coast looks to be the match we’re all having the most trouble with this weekend and the panel is split.

On one hand you can look at the Demons and say that they haven’t beaten a top-eight side all year and have just lost Jesse Hogan for the season.

On the other hand, they desperately need a win here in order to make finals happen, while West Coast may be slightly less invested.

The Eagles, too, are not without their problems – they’re still missing three crucial players in Josh J Kennedy, Andrew Gaff and Nic Naitanui.

They had a stirring win last week but it’d be silly to ignore the fact they didn’t lead all day until after the final siren, and probably wouldn’t have gotten there were it not for a horrendous twist of fate that saw Port Adelaide down to just one man on the bench.

My brain is screaming at me not to tip Melbourne, but I’m going to do it.

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Christian Petracca Melbourne Demons AFL 2017

(AAP Image/Julian Smith)

Any last hope Essendon has of making finals is on the line against Richmond on Friday night. Unfortunately for them, they’re just not on the Tigers’ level.

Collingwood should find a way to get the win at home against a Port Adelaide side that doesn’t have a skerrick of momentum.

Geelong will thump Fremantle to make the finals dream one step closer to being a certainty. In fact, make that my lock of the week.

The Swans have been commendable in the past two weeks, but GWS will have simply too much firepower for them at Spotless.

The ‘QClash’ won’t shape finals but it will shape the draft. The Lions should win, putting Gold Coast to pick 2, and themselves pick 4.

Hawthorn over St Kilda and the Western Bulldogs over Carlton look like fairly straighforward results.

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North need to beat Adelaide to have a chance at finals, the Crows are already out of the equation – but a better team. North hasn’t played in any kind of form to suggest they could win this one for a while now.

Lock of the week from the Simpsons

Adrian Polykandrites
Richmond, Collingwood, Geelong, GWS, Brisbane, Hawthorn, Bulldogs, Melbourne, Adelaide

Port’s season is pretty much on the line on Saturday at the G, but I expect the Pies to keep their top-four hopes alive while dealing the Power’s season a damaging blow.

The Cats will smash the Dockers in Geelong.

In the past fortnight the Swans have reminded anyone who might have forgotten that they are a team of serious substance.

They’re not to be underestimated, but I like the Giants in a close one, even after another couple of meaningful injuries.

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The 2008 Dockers have the fewest wins over a 22-game season (six) of any team with a percentage greater than 90. The 4-16 Lions currently have a percentage of 89.2. It’ll be above 90 after they spank the Suns.

Hawthorn won’t have any trouble with the Saints – that was a nice 10-week rebuild the Hawks had.

On current form the Dogs should be too good for the Blues.

I can’t quit the Demons, I’m an idiot.

The Roos still have everything to play for, but the Crows will be too good at home.

Josh P Kennedy

(Photo by Michael Dodge/Getty Images)

TomC
Richmond, Collingwood, Geelong, GWS, Brisbane, Hawthorn, Bulldogs, West Coast, Adelaide

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Richmond to keep their winning run going over Essendon.

The Magpies seem to rise over most obstacles, and I suspect neither their run of injuries nor the brittle Port Adelaide will be too much for them on Saturday.

The NSW Derby is tough to pick. I think the Giants just have a little more class, but really it could go either way.

The Suns can’t seem to put up anything like a winning score at the moment, and the relatively prolific Lions should get over them.

Out West, the Eagles will probably play better footy for longer than the underwhelming Demons.

Elsewhere, Cats over Dockers, Hawthorn to beat the Saints, Bulldogs to continue their improved form against Carlton, and Adelaide at home against the Kangaroos.

Round 22 Josh E Adrian P Cam R TomC The Crowd
RIC vs ESS RIC RIC ESS RIC RIC
COL vs PA COL COL COL COL COL
GEE vs FRE GEE GEE GEE GEE GEE
GWS vs SYD GWS GWS GWS GWS GWS
GCS vs BRI BRI BRI BRI BRI BRI
STK vs HAW HAW HAW HAW HAW HAW
CAR vs WB WB WB WB WB WB
WCE vs MEL MEL MEL MEL WCE WCE
ADE vs NM ADE ADE ADE ADE ADE
Last week 7 5 5 5 5
Total 118 116 119 124 126
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