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Richmond vs Essendon: Friday night forecast

(Michael Willson/AFL Media/Getty Images)
Expert
16th August, 2018
25

An impressive premiership defence means the Tigers have a top-two finish locked up and very little to play for in the final two rounds of the season.

The Bombers, on the other hand, have everything to play for.

Essendon’s finals hope remain slim, but they’re not as slim as they were a week ago thanks to a 43-point win against the Saints. This made it nine wins in 12 games and boosted their percentage to an increasingly respectable 104.8.

With all four teams directly above them on ladder having slipped up in Round 21, the Dons find themselves only a game and percentage outside of the eight with a final-round meeting against the side currently in eighth – Port Adelaide.

Champion Data puts the Bombers’ current finals chances at just two per cent – so you’re saying there’s a chance! – but if they win out, that increases to 21 per cent. The odds are still stacked against them, but having a crack sure beats throwing in the towel.

Richmond have seen many a challenger lose their way this season due to mounting injuries. The Tigers have themselves been lucky in that regard, but with finals just a few weeks they’re starting to get a taste of it.

Jack Riewoldt

Richmond are on fire at the ‘G. (Photo by Scott Barbour/Getty Images)

For the second week in a row they’ve made five changes.

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Kane Lambert – arguably the fifth-best Tiger – is in a race to be fit for a qualifying final, as is dangerous small forward Dan Butler.

Recently re-signed skipper Trent Cotchin will sit out tonight’s match to freshen up, as will key defender David Astbury. Wrecking ball Dion Prestia misses with “hamstring soreness”. The Tigers aren’t taking any chances, nor should they.

There’s still bucketloads of talent in yellow and black, of course. Star forward Jack Riewoldt is coming off a ten-goal game and a good chance to claim his third Coleman Medal. Josh Caddy bagged four goals the last time these sides met. There’s also Dustin Martin and Alex Rance, who might just be the two best players in footy.

The Bombers have had their own injury woes this season – none more significant than Joe Daniher, who’s been out of action since Round 8 – but they got a lucky break with Adam Saad named after being on the receiving end of a brutal Nathan Brown bump.

Saad and 50th-gamer Conor McKenna will be important if the Bombers are to cause an upset. The pair’s ability to break the lines will be key to piercing Richmond’s fierce defence.

The Bombers would be better served trying to play the game in their half, though.

Last time these sides met the Tigers strangled the life out of Essendon on the way to a 71-point win. Richmond scored 89 of their 114 points off turnovers, with 64 of those points coming from forward-half takeaways. The Bombers? They got a measly three points from forward-half intercepts that night.

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On the season, Essendon are getting just 47.7 per cent of their turnover points from chains starting in the forward-half, which is ranked 17th and ain’t going to cut it against the Tigers.

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The good news for Essendon is that since their bye, that percentage has been 55.6 per cent, which is above the league average of 54.7.

Essendon skipper Dyson Heppell notches his 150th game tonight and like the Bombers, he’s been in fine form since the bye, averaging 30.1 disposals, 11.6 contested possessions and 5.6 clearances. He’ll be important.

Richmond come into tonight on a four-game win streak. For them to win the flag from here without dropping another game, it would extend that streak to nine games. You have to go back to the 2001 Brisbane Lions (who won 16 in a row) to find a premier that ended the season with more than seven wins on the trot. Tonight has all the makings of “the loss they had to have”.

The Tigers have seen off every challenger they’ve faced at the MCG for the past 19 games at their home ground, including these Bombers not so long ago, but motivation matters. While the Bombers aren’t at the Tigers’ level – perhaps no one is in 2018 – they have stacks more of it tonight.

Essendon by 20 points. That’s my Friday night forecast. What’s yours?

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