The West Coast Eagles have defied all expectations this year, and will look to seal a top-two spot against the struggling Melbourne Demons.
All throughout the season, the punters have been very keen on Melbourne’s chances to finally break their eleven-year finals drought. Some predicted they would finish in the top four, while others were bold enough to say they would go all the way.
Unfortunately for the Demons, they have dropped games they shouldn’t have, and this puts them in a position where something similar could happen.
They have feasted on the bottom-nine teams, but have not beaten any of the other teams in the eight. And with the Eagles being one of those eight, things are starting to look bleak for Melbourne.
West Coast, on the other hand, seem to do no wrong. Before the season, some tipped that they would miss altogether. Instead, they sit safe inside the top two, and would have to experience a significant decline if they were to give that up now.
Even last week, when Port Adelaide led them by 16 points halfway through the last term, they managed to find a way.
(Photo by Daniel Kalisz/Getty Images)
Although they have been missing Nic Naitanui, Josh J Kennedy and Andrew Gaff, West Coast have had other players like Scott Lycett and Flyin’ Liam Ryan, standing up in their absence. And of course, not much needs to be said about Jeremy McGovern. Everyone knows that story by now.
But it is eventually going to get to that point where their injury concerns catch up to them. If they lose one more key player, their chances of going deep into September are going to decrease drastically.
Melbourne cannot afford to drop this game. After this match, they will have to play GWS, the form team of the competition, in the last round, a match which the Demons are at long odds to win.
They need at least one more win to consider themselves safe in the eight, and a loss this week might just sink their season.
But Melbourne’s secret weapon is their percentage. Of all the teams still fighting for a top-eight spot, theirs is the highest.
Ninth-placed Geelong is two wins behind the Demons – so one more win should be enough. And this week is their best chance to earn that win.
West Coast are more-or-less guaranteed a top-four position. Really, the only thing they are playing for is the chance of a home qualifying final. Win one more match, and they will have it sealed.
Jeremy McGovern vs Tom McDonald
West Coast’s best defender up against Melbourne’s former best defender. Without Jesse Hogan in the team, Tom McDonald will be given the bulk of the goalkicking responsibility.
McGovern was the last-gasp hero against Port Adelaide last week, but had three goals kicked on him by fourth-gamer Aidyn Johnson. He will want to make up for that this week.
Elliot Yeo vs Jake Melksham
Yeo has lifted his game to new heights in 2018. He has been arguably the Eagle’s best player this year, running off half-back, and he is in career-best form.
Back in the team this week, Jake Melksham was sorely missed against the Sydney Swans. He has been used to great effect this year as a midfielder who shifts forward to become a goalsneak. At his best, he is one of the most dangerous in the league, and will need to be kept busy.
It is all going to come down to the backline. With the likes of Shannon Hurn, Tom Barrass and McGovern for West Coast, and Sam Frost, Neville Jetta and Oscar McDonald for the Demons, the match is going to be low-scoring, and the result will depend upon which team defends the best.
Head-to-head: West Coast 33, Melbourne 16 (since 1987)
Past five: West Coast 4, Melbourne 1
Last meeting: West Coast 14.12.96 def by Melbourne 15.9.99
In a heart-stopper at Domain Stadium, Melbourne beat the Eagles in Perth for the first time in 15 years.
Despite West Coast having a 16-point buffer with five minutes on the clock, Tom McDonald’s five goals, including the matchwinner in the dying seconds, got the Demons over the line in the end.
West Coast Eagles
B Shannon Hurn, Tom Barrass, Brad Sheppard
HB Thomas Cole, Jeremy McGovern, Lewis Jetta
C Chris Masten, Elliot Yeo, Jamie Cripps
HF Mark Hutchings, Jack Darling, Mark LeCras
F Willie Rioli, Nathan Vardy, Brendon Ah Chee
FOL Scott Lycett, Jack Redden, Luke Shuey
I/C Liam Ryan, Dom Sheed, Liam Duggan, Daniel Venables, Francis Watson, Jackson Nelson, Matthew Allen, Jake Waterman (four to be omitted)
Melbourne Demons
B Neville Jetta, Oscar McDonald, Jordan Lewis
HB Christian Salem, Sam Frost, James Harmes
C Alex Neal-Bullen, Clayton Oliver, Angus Brayshaw
HF Charlie Spargo, Sam Weideman, Aaron Vandenberg
F Michael Hibberd, Tom McDonald, Dom Tyson
FOL Max Gawn, Nathan Jones, Christian Petracca
I/C Dean Kent, Jake Melksham, Mitch Hannan, Cameron Pedersen, Jay Kennedy Harris, Bayley Fritsch, Jeff Garlett, Josh Wagner (four to be omitted)
Despite West Coast’s injuries, they should be able to win again this week.
Melbourne’s record against top-eight sides is a telling factor, and with the Eagles at Optus Stadium, it is hard to see them breaking that trend.
West Coast by 19 points
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