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The AFL top eight is set, but the demon is in the detail

Jordan Lewis has a chance to get his first win against the Hawks (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Media/Getty Images)
Expert
20th August, 2018
134

Port Adelaide could certainly beat Essendon this Friday night. But the Gold Coast Suns ain’t beating the Cats at the Cattery. Ladies and gentlemen: your top eight for 2018 has been decided.

Someone had to miss out, and it looks as though it will be Port Adelaide. Football is a zero-sum game in the literal sense of the phrase: someone wins and someone loses. The Power has been on the losing side of that harsh equation plenty of late.

Port Adelaide had grand designs for 2018. They will end up getting 59 of a possible 66 games out of its three high-profile recruits (Steven Motlop, Tom Rockliff and Jack Watts), and a total of 14 players will have played 20 games or more on the year. Their fixture turned out to be one of the weaker in the competition; Port won five games away from the Adelaide Oval, and were 3-4 in games decided by less than two goals. They have had the kind of season you would expect a finals-bound team to have.

From 11-4 in Round 16 to a truly staggering 12-9 with one game to go, Port Adelaide needs a miracle to return to the September stage in 2018. In most years, 12-10 with a percentage around the 110 mark is enough to play off for the premiership; 13-9 with a similar percentage has almost always been enough to have your passport stamped. But this year, with the weird distribution of wins and chunky percentage of teams kicking around the bottom of the eight, will mean it’s not enough.

Can they still make it? Mathematically, yes. But remember folks, ‘mathematical chance’ is a polite way of saying the season is over. We will deal with the aftermath in due course.

North Melbourne was also all-but technically eliminated this weekend, losing to the Adelaide Crows away from home. There is no shame in that, nor is there any shame in the season the ‘Roos have put together. Theirs looms as a busy off-season.

So then there were eight. And after this weekend’s results, we know very little about the first week of finals action.

Richmond will host a qualifying final – likely to be a Thursday night – but their opponent could be any of West Coast, Collingwood, Hawthorn or Sydney depending on next week’s results. The second qualifying final host will come from that group too, though West Coast would appear to be in the box seat given the club has a win over the other three sides.

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We know Geelong won’t be the home side for their first final, presuming they beats the Gold Coast Suns (and guys, the line is set at a cool 12-and-a-half goals). The Cats can rise as high as seventh should they win and Melbourne lose against the Giants. Otherwise, lock in eighth spot.

But honestly that’s about it.

Melbourne’s stirring win over the West Coast Eagles (head over to my live blog and match report for some thoughts on that match) means they will be playing in September for the first time since 2006.

Nathan Jones

(Photo by Paul Kane/Getty Images)

Nathan Jones is the only player on Melbourne’s list from that year still at the club (Lynden Dunn is now at Collingwood). The club has been through some stuff since their loss to Fremantle in the 2006 semi-final. So has the world; the smartphone that you’re probably reading this on was just a twinkle in the eye of Steve Jobs.

The Dees were staring down the barrel of another year on the September sidelines not more than a week ago. Another close loss to another prospective finalist in Sydney had the commentariat hyperventilating about Melbourne’s collective ticket. They should have instead focussed on what the club can do when it clicks into place, as they did against the Eagles and as they might just do week in, week out from here.

Melbourne face the GWS Giants for the right to host a home elimination final in Week 1 of the finals. If the Dees win, they will finish in at least fifth spot, and they could rise as high as fourth should Collingwood lose to whatever it is Ross Lyon has cooking over there at Fremantle.

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The Giants can too jump into the top four if they beat the Dees and the Pies lose, but would similarly more likely find themselves in fifth spot hosting either the Dees or Cats (depending on the percentage boost Geelong can deliver for itself against the Suns).

The other swing outcome of the weekend was the Sydney Swans’ victory over the Giants. The Swans have done their best impression of the WWE’s Undertaker, rising up from the canvas when all hope looked lost.

Since they too faced their moment of mortality, Sydney have bludgeoned their way to three straight wins against fellow finalists (albeit two by two points and nine points respectively). In the process, the Swans have put themselves in the frame for an unlikely top-four finish, should they knock off the Hawks on Saturday night.

Let me just go over that again briefly: Sydney has a chance to go into the top four with a win over Hawthorn on Saturday night. If they lose, Hawthorn goes in. The entire football universe will be watching that one.

Oliver Florent avoiding a James Frawley tackle.

(Photo: Adam Trafford/Getty Images)

Hawthorn is in that spot by virtue of a scrappy but still effective win over St Kilda. The Hawks have revolutionised their game plan, as we discussed early in the year, and could well challenge for this year’s premiership if some things – like an injury or ten to Richmond – go their way. If not, they will certainly be thereabouts again in 2019 and beyond as another aggressive off-season lurks over the horizon.

Both Collingwood and West Coast have their own destinies in the palms of their hands – or talons, as it were. If the Pies beat the Dockers in the Saturday twilight by more than 18 points (the early-week line is set at 33.5), they will overtake West Coast. Hawthorn could jump the Pies into second if they beat Sydney by four more points than the Pies beat the Dockers.

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Then, West Coast would need to win against the Lions to leapfrog them both. Both Collingwood and Hawthorn can win by less than 18 and 22 points respectively and West Coast will be safe regardless of what happens on Sunday.

Of course, if Fremantle somehow wins, and Sydney beats Hawthorn, and West Coast loses to the Lions then it all comes down to margins to sort out the top four. It’s a complex set of circumstances that’ll come down to a couple of decimal places of percentage one predicts.

What a fitting way to end this season. We might be down to our eight finalists, but there’s still so much at stake in the final round of the year.

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