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Wondering how far your AFL team can rise or fall in the final week of the season? I’ve done the (sometimes extremely improbable) maths so you don’t have to.
vs Western Bulldogs at MCG, 68 points, 138.3 per cent
Two wins ahead of the pack, Richmond have nothing to lose or gain this week other than doing whatever they can to aid Jack Riewoldt’s chances of winning the Coleman Medal.
Predicted final: First qualifying final vs Hawthorn Hawks at MCG
vs Brisbane Lions at the Gabba, 60 points, 120.8 per cent
The equation is fairly simple for the Eagles – win and they will lock in second place and a home qualifying final.
Lose and they will almost certainly drop to the lower half of the top four. The only way they could avoid that is if Collingwood and Hawthorn also lose.
Predicted final: Second qualifying final vs Collingwood Magpies at Optus Stadium
vs Fremantle Dockers at Optus Stadium, 56 points, 120.7 per cent
The Pies have the chance to lock in a top-four spot with a win over Fremantle, but just how high they could rise – or fall – will depend on other results.
If West Coast slip up against Brisbane they’ll be in the box seat to sneak into the top two. However, even with a win they could easily drop to fourth if Hawthorn also win, and by a bigger margin than them.
Of course, finishing in fourth is arguably preferable to third, as it would mean an MCG qualifying final against the Tigers.
Worst case scenario for the Pies is if they lose to Fremantle and Hawthorn beat Sydney – in this case, they’d sink as low as sixth, but would still have a home elimination final.
Predicted final: Second qualifying final vs West Coast Eagles at Optus Stadium
vs Sydney Swans at SCG, 56 points, 120.5 per cent
The Hawks can lock in a top-four berth if they beat the Swans, and could rise as high as second if West Coast lose to Brisbane and Collingwood either lose to Fremantle or win by a smaller margin than Hawthorn do.
Lose and they will likely finish sixth, as they’ll be overtaken by the Swans and whoever wins out of the Giants and Demons. They can’t fall any lower than that and would still host a home elimination final.
Predicted final: First qualifying final vs Richmond Tigers at MCG
(AAP Image/Joe Castro)
vs Hawthorn Hawks at SCG, 56 points, 110.6 per cent
Sydney’s equation is essentially the same as that of Hawthorn, except they probably don’t have a realistic chance at a top-two spot due to their low percentage.
They’d probably have to beat the Hawks by at least 100 points and also have West Coast lose to Brisbane and Collingwood either lose to Fremantle or only win by a very slight margin – unlikely.
More realistic is that a win over the Hawks would see them finish in fourth and play the Tigers in a qualifying final.
Lose and they’ll probably finish sixth, overtaken by whoever wins the match between Melbourne and GWS, but still play a home elimination final.
Predicted final: Second elimination final vs Melbourne Demons at SCG
vs Melbourne Demons at MCG, 54 points, 118.1 per cent
Unfortunately for the Giants, losing to Sydney in Round 22 has probably cost them any hope they had of sneaking into the top four.
For a top-four finish to be on the cards, the Giants would be hoping either for Collingwood to lose to Fremantle, or Hawthorn and Sydney to draw.
If either of those scenarios presents itself, then odds are a win would see the Giants sneak into fourth and play a qualifying final against Richmond at the MCG.
More likely is that a win in the final round would lock in fifth position and give them a home elimination final at Spotless Stadium, probably against Geelong.
Predicted final: First elimination final vs Geelong Cats at Spotless Stadium
vs GWS Giants at MCG, 52 points, 129.8 per cent
Although it’s unlikely, Melbourne are still a chance to slide into the top four, thanks to their massive percentage.
All they need is for Collingwood to slip up against Fremantle – if so, then Melbourne only need to beat GWS to rise all the way to third.
If the Pies do get over the Dockers, then a win will most likely see Melbourne rise to fifth position and probably host Geelong in an elimination final at the MCG.
That’d be a cracking fixture given how the matches between those two sides have gone so far this season.
Lose and Melbourne will be the away team in an elimination final, probably travelling to Sydney to face either the Swans or the Giants.
They would finish either seventh or eighth depending on whether Geelong manage to beat Gold Coast by enough to overtake them on percentage.
In a purely mathematical sense, they could still finish ninth if they were to lose to GWS by something in the realm of 400 points while Geelong and Port Adelaide both win.
Predicted final: Second elimination final vs Sydney Swans at SCG
(Photo by Paul Kane/Getty Images)
vs Gold Coast Suns at GMHBA Stadium, 48 points, 125.7 per cent
Geelong’s equation is pretty simple – win and they’ll play as the away team in an elimination final, lose and they will have to hope Port Adelaide have also dropped the ball.
Luckily for the Cats, Port’s game is on before theirs – so they’ll know going in whether or not they have to get the win to survive.
If the Dees lose then they could jump up as high as seventh if they win by a hefty margin, or Melbourne loses by one.
They won’t realistically go any lower than ninth if they lose.
Predicted final: First elimination final vs GWS Giants at Spotless Stadium
vs Essendon Bombers at Adelaide Oval, 48 points, 109.6 per cent
Port Adelaide have no choice left but to cross their fingers and hope Geelong shoot themselves in the foot by losing to Gold Coast.
If they do, then Port could sneak into eighth with a win over Essendon on Friday night – of course, they’ll go into that game not knowing yet if it’s possible or not.
Lose to the Dons and the Power could theoretically drop as low as 12th, depending on the margins North Melbourne, Essendon and Adelaide potentially win by.
vs St Kilda Saints at Etihad Stadium, 44 points, 108.1 per cent
North’s finals miracle requires Port Adelaide to lose to Essendon, Geelong to lose to Gold Coast, and then they probably need to beat the Suns by about 270 points.
Piece of cake.
The realistic scenario is that a win would see North finish ninth if Port Adelaide lose, tenth if Port Adelaide win.
They could easily drop as low as 12th if they lose while Essendon and Adelaide both win.
vs Port Adelaide Power at Adelaide Oval, 44 points, 104.1 per cent
The Bombers’ finals scenario is essentially the same as North’s, except with an even bigger gap to make up.
They would need Geelong to lose to Gold Coast, and then would likely need to beat Port Adelaide by something in the realm of 320 points.
More likely is that a win sees them finish either ninth or tenth, while a loss would probably see them drop to 12th assuming Adelaide beat Carlton.
vs Carlton Blues at Etihad Stadium, 44 points, 98.4 per cent
If North and Essendon’s finals miracle scenarios haven’t been improbable enough for your tastes, well, hold on to your hats.
First, Adelaide need Geelong to lose to Gold Coast, and Port Adelaide to lose to Essendon.
Then they’d be looking to beat Carlton by at least 400 points minimum. Well, I suppose if there’s any team it’s realistic to beat by 400 points…
More realistically they’ll likely get a win over the Blues and finish between 10th and 12th depending on whether North and Essendon get wins in their matches.
(Photo by Daniel Kalisz/Getty Images)
vs Richmond Tigers at MCG, 32 points, 76.3 per cent
The Dogs are a clear tier below the top 12, so can’t possibly rise any higher than where they currently are regardless of results.
They could theoretically drop behind the Dockers if either a) they lose and the Dockers win, b) both teams lose but the Dogs lose by a bit more, c) both teams win but the Dockers win by a bit more.
vs Collingwood Magpies at Etihad Stadium, 32 points, 75.8 per cent
Fremantle are mostly of interest for the question of whether or not they can help out a bunch of the teams vying for a top-four spot by knocking off Collingwood – probably no.
As discussed regarding the Bulldogs, there’s the potential for these two teams to swap places depending on their respective results, but nothing more volatile than that.
vs West Coast Eagles at the Gabba, 20 points, 89.9 per cent
A win or likely even a draw for Brisbane would lock them in for a fifteenth-placed finish.
Lose and they could slip behind St Kilda, if the Saints beat North Melbourne.
They could even mathematically sink below the Suns into 17th, albeit only if they lose, the Saints win, and Gold Coast thump Geelong by around 600 points.
vs North Melbourne Kangaroos at Etihad Stadium, 18 points, 75.3 per cent
If Brisbane lose then the Saints could leapfrog them by beating North Melbourne. If the Saints lose, they could slip below Gold Coast if the Suns somehow upset Geelong.
vs Geelong Cats at GMHBA Stadium, 16 points, 62.2 per cent
Gold Coast’s chances of rising in the final week all depend on the teams above them losing, which is probably likely.
However to move up the ladder they’d need to knock off Geelong, which would be highly appreciated by someone like Port Adelaide, but doesn’t seem super likely.
vs Adelaide Crows at Etihad Stadium, 8 points, 61 per cent
Falling short against the Bulldogs in Round 22 has officially ended any hope the Blues had of avoiding the wooden spoon – win, lose or draw, they’re finishing last.