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2018 US Open mega-preview

Sloane Stephens's road to recovery has ended with her maiden grand slam title. (AP Photo/Adam Hunger)
Roar Guru
21st August, 2018
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The year’s final Grand Slam tournament is just around the corner.

While all eyes will be on Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic in the men’s division, in the women’s Serena Williams will be hoping to mark a triumphant return to Flushing Meadows, twelve months after giving birth.

Men’s defending champion Nadal has been the form player of the 2018 season, with his five titles, including a record-breaking eleventh French Open crown, being the most of any man so far.

The Spaniard has also been ranked world number one for all but two weeks this year, and should leave New York with the top ranking if he reaches the semi-finals.

Meanwhile, former two-time Wimbledon champion Petra Kvitova leads the WTA in titles won, also with five.

Her impressive form this season has seen her re-enter the top five in the world rankings, over eighteen months after she suffered a violent off-court hand injury during Christmas in 2016.

However, it will be world number one Simona Halep, as well as defending champion Sloane Stephens and six-time champion Serena Williams, who will be among the big names to watch out for in New York.

As always, we start with the men, starting with the world number one and defending champion, Rafael Nadal.

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The men

Rafael Nadal (ESP)
Current world ranking: 1

US Open history
Best result: Won three times (2010, 2013, 2017)
Last year’s result: Won

Australian Open result: Quarter-finals, retired
French Open result: Won
Wimbledon result: Semi-finals

Titles so far in 2018: Monte Carlo, Barcelona, Rome, French Open, Toronto.

Even at the age of 32, Rafael Nadal still has what it takes to dominate men’s tennis.

Since reaching the final of last year’s Australian Open, which he lost to Roger Federer in five sets, the Spaniard has enjoyed a career resurgence, winning three more major titles including a record-breaking eleventh French Open title.

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He also finished last year as the world’s top-ranked male player and has held top spot for all but two weeks in 2018. The margin between him and Roger Federer is so huge that it is literally impossible for him to be dislodged from the top of the rankings, even if he loses in the first round.

Apart from his record-breaking feat at Roland Garros, Nadal has also won titles at Monte Carlo, Barcelona and Rome, as well as most recently in Toronto in which he defeated rising Greek star Stefanos Tsitsipas in the final.

Now, he returns to New York hoping to further close the gap on Roger Federer on the Grand Slam leaderboard, trailing the Swiss Maestro by 20 titles to 17.

Assuming he salutes at Flushing Meadows, then wins the Australian Open next year, the Spaniard will then have the chance to equal Federer on 20 major titles with a 12th French Open crown, before getting the chance to break the men’s record at Federer’s stomping ground, Wimbledon.

But first thing’s first – I have Nadal taking out another US Open title.

Prediction: Champion.

Rafael Nadal hits at Wimbledon.

Spain’s Rafael Nadal (Photo by Glyn KIRK / AFP).

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Roger Federer (SUI)
Current world ranking: 2

US Open history
Best result: Won five times (2004-08)
Last year’s result: Quarter-finals

Australian Open result: Won
French Open result: Did not play
Wimbledon result: Quarter-finals

Titles so far in 2018: Australian Open, Rotterdam, Stuttgart.

It surprises me to think that Roger Federer has not won a US Open title since 2008.

This year marks a decade since the Swiss Maestro won the last of his five titles at Flushing Meadows, and since then his best result has been two runner-up finishes to Juan Martin del Potro and Novak Djokovic in 2009 and 2015 respectively.

Last year, he lost a quarter-final thriller against del Potro, therefore robbing fans of a first-ever Federer versus Nadal showdown in New York.

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He started this year by successfully retaining his Australian Open title, hitting 20 major titles in the process. He also went on to win titles in Rotterdam and Stuttgart on either side of losing to del Potro in the Indian Wells final.

His title win in Stuttgart came after he again chose to bypass the entire clay court season, knowing that he had next to no chance of challenging Rafael Nadal on the red dirt.

The 37-year-old then failed to successfully defend his title at Wimbledon, losing a quarter-final thriller against Kevin Anderson in five sets after holding a match point in the third set.

That result has seen him fall further behind Nadal in the rankings, though he did make up some ground by reaching the final in Cincinnati where he lost to Novak Djokovic in straight sets.

To have any chance of reclaiming the world number one ranking, Federer must win the title and hope that Rafael Nadal gets knocked out before the semi-finals.

But while I can’t see that happening, I can see the Swiss Maestro again reaching the business end of the tournament, but only as far as the semi-finals.

Prediction: Semi-finals

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Roger Federer (AAP Image/Lukas Coch)

Novak Djokovic (SRB)
Current world ranking: 6

US Open history
Best result: Won twice (2011, 2015)
Last year’s result: Did not play

Australian Open result: Fourth round
French Open result: Quarter-finals
Wimbledon result: Won

Titles so far in 2018: Wimbledon, Cincinnati

If Roger Federer isn’t the biggest threat to Rafael Nadal for the US Open title, then two-time champion Novak Djokovic must be.

After an injury-riddled past few seasons, the Djoker has returned to top form, winning his fourth Wimbledon title and completing the Career Golden Masters by defeating Roger Federer in the final of the Cincinnati Masters.

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Having dropped outside of the world’s top 20 for the first time since 2006, the 31-year-old now finds himself ranked sixth in the world, and, with nothing to defend for the rest of 2018, can continue to push up the rankings and enjoy a late-career resurgence like Federer and Nadal have in recent years.

His win in Cincinnati last week saw him enter uncharted territory: winning all four major titles and all nine Masters 1000 titles, something not even his two great rivals have been able to achieve.

In addition he has won five ATP Finals titles, the most recent in 2015, and also won the Bronze Medal at the Beijing Olympics a decade ago, putting him up there as among the modern greats of men’s tennis.

Now, the Djoker will be hoping to continue his recent impressive form at a tournament where he made his career breakthrough, reaching the final as a 20-year-old in 2007 before going on to win it twice, in 2011 and 2015.

His absence from last year’s tournament marked the first time that he missed a Grand Slam tournament due to injury since he debuted at the 2005 Australian Open.

Therefore, he will have no points to defend, and can continue to climb up the rankings at will. That being said, I have him reaching the final where, if the draw allows it, he could face Rafael Nadal in the final.

Prediction: Finalist

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Novak Djokovic

Novak Djokovic of Serbia (Photo by TPN/Getty Images)

Others to watch out for: Juan Martin del Potro, Alexander Zverev, Kevin Anderson, Marin Cilic and Grigor Dimitrov.

Notable names in qualifying: Tommy Robredo, Bernard Tomic, Ivo Karlovic and Ernests Gulbis.

Notable wildcards: Stan Wawrinka.

The women

Simona Halep (ROU)
Current world ranking: 1

US Open history
Best result: Semi-finals (2015)
Last year’s result: First round

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Australian Open result: Runner-up
French Open result: Won
Wimbledon result: Third round

Titles so far in 2018: Shenzhen, French Open, Montreal.

Without doubt one of the form players of the season so far is world number one Simona Halep.

The Romanian started this year by winning another title in Shenzhen before falling short in a classic Australian Open final, going down to Caroline Wozniacki in three sets.

Heartbreak later made way for glory, though, as she then went on to finally end her Grand Slam curse by defeating Sloane Stephens in the final of the French Open.

The glory would not last long, however, as she then fell in the third round of Wimbledon, marking this the first time a world number one had fallen this early at the All England Club since Serena Williams in 2014.

However, when the season returned to the American hard courts, the 26-year-old would bounce back, claiming the title in Montreal before going down to Kiki Bertens in the final of the Cincinnati Open last week.

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Now, the Romanian arrives in New York without the risk of losing her world number one ranking, because even if second-ranked Caroline Wozniacki goes all the way, she will not accrue enough points to overtake her.

Last year, Halep was unlucky to have drawn Maria Sharapova in the first round, eventually going down in three sets.

It was the Russian’s first Grand Slam tournament since the 2016 Australian Open, where she had tested positive to the illegal use of meldonium which subsequently saw her banned for fifteen months.

Because of this result, Halep can earn rankings points at will by making a deep run at the US Open, which would see her go a long way towards clinching the year-end world number one ranking before the WTA Finals get underway in October.

Her best result is reaching the semi-finals, and I can see her getting that far at least.

Prediction: Semi-finals

Sloane Stephens (USA)
Current world ranking: 3

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US Open history
Best result: Won (2017)
Last year’s result: Won

Australian Open result: First round
French Open result: Runner-up
Wimbledon result: First round

Titles so far in 2018: Miami.

This time last year, Sloane Stephens was starting to make significant progress in her comeback from a serious foot injury which saw her very nearly drop out of the world’s top 1000.

But not many people thought that she could come from the back of the field to claim a breakthrough Grand Slam title, defeating her best friend on tour, Madison Keys, to do so.

It would be a huge turning point in the 25-year-old’s career; although she went winless for five months thereafter, she would then win the Miami Open in March this year and then reach a career high ranking of number three.

Sloane Stephens raises her arms in celebration after defeating Madison Keys in straight sets in the 2017 US Open final

Sloane Stephens (AP Photo/Adam Hunger)

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Twelve months on from her breakthrough, Stephens arrives at Flushing Meadows as the defending champion, and with that will come the pressure and the risk of dropping out of the world’s top ten.

She’ll also be aware of what happened to 2016 champion Angelique Kerber, who last year lost her opening match against Naomi Osaka and therefore becoming the first defending champion since Svetlana Kuznetsova in 2005 to bomb out of the US Open in the first round.

Her pre-US Open campaign was moderate, losing to Halep in the final of the Rogers Cup before bowing out to Elise Mertens in the third round at Cincinnati last week.

Now it will remain to be seen how she fares in the second-biggest moment of her career – defending a Grand Slam title, which in recent times has proven to be more difficult than actually winning the title itself.

Prediction: Semi-finals

Serena Williams (USA)
Current world ranking: 26

US Open history
Best result: Won six times (1999, 2002, 2008, 2012-14)
Last year’s result: Did not play

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Australian Open result: Did not play
French Open result: Fourth round, withdrew
Wimbledon result: Runner-up

This time twelve months ago, Serena Williams was getting ready to enter labour after inadvertently announcing that she was pregnant on Snapchat in April earlier in the year.

As the first birthday of her daughter approaches, the 36-year-old will be hoping to again equal the record of 24 Grand Slam singles titles held by Australian Margaret Court.

After an underwhelming comeback to competition earlier this year, the American made an inspiring run to the final at Wimbledon, where she was defeated by Angelique Kerber in straight sets.

Williams’ results since then have been largely uninspiring, suffering a record defeat at the hands of Johanna Konta in San Jose before going down to former two-time Wimbledon champion Petra Kvitova in Cincinnati last week.

Despite her recent poor form, the 36-year-old will arrive at Flushing Meadows as one of the title favourites hoping to put some indifferent past few years at the tournament behind her.

Her most recent appearance in New York, in 2016, saw her lose the world number one ranking when she lost to Karolina Pliskova in the semi-finals, while the year before that, a surprise defeat at the hands of Roberta Vinci ended any hopes she had of achieving a calendar Grand Slam.

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At her national championships, I have her doing very well and reaching the business end of the tournament, but winning the whole thing could prove to be a big ask, as it was at Wimbledon.

Prediction: Final

Also watch out for: Caroline Wozniacki, Angelique Kerber, Petra Kvitova, Venus Williams, Garbine Muguruza, Elina Svitolina and Karolina Pliskova.

Notable names in qualifying: Vera Zvonareva, Eugenie Bouchard and Sabine Lisicki.

Notable wildcards: Victoria Azarenka and Svetlana Kuznetsova.

The US Open starts on Tuesday morning AEST (Monday morning local time).

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