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Is there actually a premiership favourite this year?
While I correctly predicted after Round 15 that the top eight was already set, I truly expected that with two rounds to go that there would be at least a couple of clear favourites for the 2018 title.
But there really isn’t.
Just when it seems a side has asserted its ascendency, something has happened to derail it.
Every side in the Top 8 is approaching the finals with distinct issues and it means that this year may be the first since 1995 that a team wins the premiership from outside the top four.
So what does each side have going for it and what are the issues they’ve got to overcome? What is each side’s likelihood of lifting the Provan Summons Trophy on grand final day.
Didn’t they look good at season’s start, the Warriors? They won their first five games straight for the first time in their history and many of us were thinking that maybe fitness trainer extraordinaire Alex Corvo had put some starch in composition.
However, since then they’ve won eight and lost seven. Now they cling to the edge of the eight.
Why they can be premiers
There is nothing like sudden death to bring the best out in the Warriors. When they go into all-out attack mode they can be breathtaking. Shaun Johnson, Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, Solomone Kata and David Fusitua can do special things. Once they smell blood in the water they can really put sides away.
Why they won’t be premiers
Let’s face it, the Warriors pack just isn’t quite good enough. While Issac Luke is enjoying a bit of a renaissance, who else in their pack really has the goods? Bunty Afoa? Adam Blair? James Gavet?
Further, the Warriors points differential of just +1 shows that the magical back line hasn’t been really seen in 2018.
The wild card
As ever Shaun Johnson holds the key. We know he has all the skills. The thing is he has to actually use them for them to work. The other thing is that he could at any moment.
Status: No chance.
Issac Luke of the Warriors. (AAP Image/David Rowland)
It has been a tumultuous year, all things considered, for Brisbane.
The Matt Lodge furore was accompanied by up and down results. The forward pack suffered some bad blows – most notably Matt Gillett – and the halves failed to set the world on fire.
Further, recruit Jack Bird’s introduction to Red Hill has not gone the way that was hoped for.
Oh, and there has been some coaching distractions I’m told.
While their win over the Rabbitohs steadied what looked like a very wobbly ship, they still find themselves at the foot of the table going into September. Are they a show at all?
Why they can be premiers
There is an awful lot of talent in the side. Andrew McCullough – injured for last year’s finals – is a great player. In his pack he’s got Tevita Pangai junior, Alex Glenn and Josh McGuire adding real grunt.
Matt Lodge is pretty good too. The backline oozes talent. Corey Oates and new kid Jamayne Isaako are superb wingers, James Roberts is the quickest man in the NRL and Darius Boyd brings a whole lot of big game experience. And we know how good Anthony Milford can be.
Plus their coach knows a bit about September success and he’s highly motivated right now.
Why they won’t be premiers
It just hasn’t clicked in the halves and it needs to. Kodi Nikorima has undoubted talent but he is yet to make the step up to dominant half status. Milford is enigmatic. Capable of absolute brilliance, it has been all too rare this season.
They are highly likely to finish in the away elimination spots and their record away from Suncorp against top eight sides is three wins, two losses. They can do it but it’ll be tough.
The wild card
There are three. Sam Thaiday will be playing each game like it is his last and the big unit is a very handy player. James Roberts can score from anywhere and rip the guts out of opposition sides. And Anthony Milford is a superstar. He just needs to show it again.
Status: Bookies would love you to bet on them.
Coach Wayne Bennett (AAP Image/Dave Hunt)
Strewth, it is hard not to feel sorry for the long-suffering fans of the Red V. They looked so good, so dominant, at 6-0 back in April. Their record is eight wins and eight loses since then.
Their last win against a top eight side came way back in Round 9. Since then they’ve lost all five of their games against the other 2018 finalists with an average losing margin of 32-14.
The wheels seem to have fallen off going into September.
Why they can be premiers
If the Dragons can find their early season form they most certainly can challenge. There is no question that the side is dripping with talent. Their only injuries are to Paul Vaughan and their confidence.
They need to get back to the grinding basics that set up their season so well. If they do then anything is possible.
Why they won’t be premiers
I hate to use the analogy again, but the Dragons’ season is directly akin to the last ride of the Night Rider in the Australian classic film Mad Max.
Untouchable to start with and causing joyous havoc, their confidence is now shot and it’s just a matter of time until their season explodes into flames…
The wild card
That pack is awfully good. If they can get back to their best then the Dragons could turn it around.
Status: Gone before September started.
James Graham of the St George Illawarra Dragons. (Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
I have been amazed at the Panthers’ ability to cope with players being out with injury this season. Sam McKendry, Tim Browne and Dylan Edwards out for the season.
Peter Wallace retired. Regan Campbell Gillard and Nathan Cleary spent long times on the sideline.
Yet the Panthers kept winning. A lot of that was down to the excellent direction of James Maloney (who I love!).
However, mostly is was due to some excellent development and recruitment at Penrith. But things have gone a bit pear shaped, culminating in Anthony Griffin getting the flick four rounds out from the finals and a rookie coach stepping up. It isn’t ideal.
Why they can be premiers
James Maloney will come back from injury and show the big game brilliance he has to guide the side to the premiership. Their brilliant pack will give him all the room he needs to weave his magic – and weave he will.
Why they won’t be premiers
For quite a while I genuinely believed that the Panthers were going to prevail in 2018. However, then came Round 15 when the Roosters flogged them by 26 points. Since that point they’ve only won four of their nine games, and three of them required miracle comebacks against bottom eight sides.
Now they are away to the Warriors this round and the Storm next. The chances are they’ll finish somewhere from sixth to eighth. Even Jimmy Maloney might not be able to inspire the side to climb that mountain…
The wild card
The Panthers pack is superb, with a very deep bench. If they start rolling again like we know they can, they’ll be in every game they play. With that platform Nathan Cleary and James Maloney can weave some special magic.
Status: Outsiders.
I genuine wondered how the Storm would go in 2018 without Cooper Cronk. His game management and total focus was such a strength for them.
As well, his defence at number seven is probably the best I’ve ever seen. When they lost three of their first five I thought that we might have seen the best of the Storm and the dynasty was over.
By the time they hit the Round 13 bye their record was 7-5 and they were mid table. However, since that point their record is 8-2 and now here we are going into Round 24 and the Purple Horde are on top of the ladder.
Why they can be premiers
Because it’s the Melbourne Storm. That’s what they do. They win premierships. Except 2016 of course.
Cam Smith is still a genius player. Billy Slater will hold nothing back in order to go out a winner and their pack is as a professional unit as you are ever like to see.
They are well marshalled, disciplined and prepared. They’ll go for their opponents weaknesses by any means.
Why they won’t be premiers
It was a rotten time for Nelson Asofa-Solomona and Suliasi Vunivalu to get injured. There is also doubt over Cam Smith’s lower back and with Will Chambers suspended the Storm’s depth will be challenged at a most inconvenient time.
Further, Brodie Croft is back in for Jahrome Hughes at seven. So the line-up is in no way settled at all. While their last two games are eminently winnable and their points differential is outstanding as usual, there are question marks over their state going into the finals.
The wild card
The injuries. How bad are they? If Smith isn’t right it is hard to see the Storm winning the premiership. Further, they need all their strike on the park at the business end. Will they have it there?
Status: premiership contenders
(AAP Image/Julian Smith)
When the Redfern boys lost their first two games of the season lots of us thought that they were going to be also rans again. Then they won 13 of their next 15 games and looked good doing it.
Coach Anthony Seibold has managed to do what Madge McGuire couldn’t: get the Burgii back in touch. George, Tom and Sam are back in career best form and what a difference it has made. Plus Greg Inglis is back on the field and Angus Crichton is still with them. Add Dane Gagai and Damien Cook and you have one intimidating side.
Why the can be premiers
Their pack is the measure of anyone’s and their backline has distinct venom. While they’ve lost their last two, now they are back at full strength they can win the last two games of the season to go into finals in very good shape, possibly even in the top two. With the leadership of Greg Inglis and Sam Burgess at the helm this side could go all the way.
Why they won’t be premiers
I still have doubts over the credentials of Adam Reynolds and Cody Walker as a halves unit. They certainly have some great skills but can they make it all click when it counts? I’m not certain.
The wild card
How the Burgii perform at the business end of the season will determine the success of the Rabbitohs. If they rampage then expect the Rabbitohs to be absolute threats.
Status: Genuine premiership contenders
Adam Reynolds of the Rabbitohs (Photo by Anthony Au-Yeung/Getty Images)
The Roosters were gifted the most glorious draw by the NRL for this season.
So it is really no surprise to see them second on the ladder with two games remaining. If the Roosters win those two games then they’ve got to be a real shot for top spot and the premiership. However, it is worth noting that of the 20 completed NRL seasons the minor premier has only won the premiership seven times.
It has taken me a while to be convinced by the Roosters this season and just as I was starting to truly believe they lost to the Raiders. While they’ve won nine of their last 11 games they haven’t been that convincing. However, they are there when the whips are cracking again!
Why they can be premiers
There is a great mix of talent and experience in this side. Jake Friend, Boyd Cordner, Jared Waerea- Hargreaves and Cooper Cronk are seasoned campaigners who’ve been there and done that.
Add to that the supreme talents of Luke Keary, James Tedesco, Latrell Mitchell and – yes – Blake Ferguson and you’ve got a genuine contender. This side can grind. This side can dazzle. There is no question that the Tri-Colours are a big chance this season.
Why they won’t be premiers
I have question marks over the Roosters pack. I question Dylan Napa’s defence and his ability to stay focused. Nat Butcher and Victor Radley have shown great promise but can they produce under finals pressure? They’ll need too.
The wild card
We’ve all seen that Latrell Mitchell was a talent but this year he has really stopped the brain explosions and his game has gone to another level. I am in awe of this bloke. He could blow the finals open. His match against the Raiders got the bad game out of his system. Watch him go berserk. I pity those trying to mark him.
Status: Genuine premiership contenders
The lads from the Shire currently sit in sixth spot but are only one win outside the top four. If they make the to four they will almost certainly be playing away the first week. They play the Knights at home this weekend before meeting the Bulldogs at ANZ Stadium in the final round. I have a vibe about the Sharks.
Why they can be premiers
As AJ Mithen pointed out the stars may well be aligning at exactly the right time for the Sharkies. Apart from the injured Jack Williams, the Sharks are at full strength. Even Josh Dugan is fit.
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Further, they’ve got some real star power in their line up. Wade Graham, Luke Lewis, Paul Gallen and Valentine Holmes are all stars. James Segeyaro and Aaron Woods have hit form.
Add Andrew Fifita back in form and they are imposing. I reckon they’ve timed their run.
Why they won’t be premiers
The Injury Fairy has been a frequent and unwanted visitor at Shark Park this season. If she comes visiting again in any major way then the Sharks chances could really be stymied. Plus Jaidyn Brailey, while extremely good, is no Mick Ennis.
The wild card
I see no down side to Andrew Fifita being fired up to prove criticism wrong. Who cares how you motivate a player, if it gets him back into his top form then it can only be good.
I’m sure Shane Flanagan would gladly cop a flogging from his star prop if it yielded another premiership. If Fifita gets back to his best there is not another prop in the game who can match him.
As well, Just imagine if Josh Dugan and Matt Moylan – the two enigmatic frustrations of players that they are – hit top form. The Sharks could absolutely blow sides away.
Status: My tip for the premiership.