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It’s fair to assume this isn’t what AFL HQ was hoping for when this game was locked in as the Friday night match-up a few weeks ago.
What loomed as a match that could shape the eight is instead a ho-hum affair between two teams who’ll be partaking in Mad Monday just a few days from now.
Port still have the slimmest of chances to make the eight, but they’ll need the Suns to cause the mother of all upsets in Geelong, where the Cats are favoured by more than 12 goals.
But barring a miracle, this will be the Power’s final game of 2018.
While the Bombers can blame a bad start to the season for their disappointing finishing position, the Power will rue a poor finish.
Ken Hinkley’s side have dropped five of their past six matches, including three by single digits. It’s been a brutal past month for the Power. A heartbreaking loss to the Crows, in which the last goal of the game might not have been a goal at all, was followed by another after-the-siren home loss to the Eagles.
The consistent theme for Port during their poor past six weeks has been a lack of scoring. They’ve managed just a touch better than 11 goals a game in that stretch, which isn’t going to get it done.
It’d be easy to point at the absence of Charlie Dixon as a reason for that, but the big man was injured only two weeks ago.
What has changed significantly in the past six games for Port Adelaide is their ability to win the territory battle. Up until Round 16 – when they were 11-4 and cruising towards finals with an eye on the top four – Port were averaging 54.8 inside-50s while conceding 50.1.
They also had a positive clearance differential, winning 41.4 a game to their opponents’ 39.8.
Since that ugly Round 17 loss to the Dockers, though, Port are losing the clearances, on average, 35 to 42.3 and the inside-50s are even uglier, with the Power getting it in just 48.5 times a game and conceding a whopping 59.3 during their slump.
Few teams will be able to overcome playing on the back foot so often. The Power are undefeated in the six games in which they’ve won both the clearance and inside-50 counts this season, they’re 1-5 when they’ve lost both.
One of the topics of the week has been the fact that each of these sides – both of whom were bundled out in the first week of the 2017 finals series – were aggressive last offseason in chasing players they thought would push them deeper into finals.
For Port Adelaide that hasn’t worked out. Tom Rockliff, Jack Watts and Steven Motlop have all been largely inconspicuous.
(AAP Image/Ben Macmahon)
Former Brisbane skipper Rockliff’s average of 20.6 disposals this season is his lowest since his debut year, in which he played just one game. It’s not a shock that his numbers took a slight hit moving to a better side with a deeper midfield brigade, but his impact has been disappointing.
As for Watts and Motlop, neither have done anything this season to rid themselves of their whipping boy reputations. Watts has shown flashes of the slick high forward his supporters have long hoped he would become on a more regular basis, but also spent a few weeks in the SANFL searching for form midseason.
He still drifts out of games too often, though he at least stood tall in last week’s thrashing against the Magpies, finishing with 28 touches and eight inside-50s.
Motlop has just 11 goals in 20 games, having only once averaged less than a goal a game in the past six seasons – and that was 2017 when he booted 22 goals in 23 games.
Even though the Bombers would be disappointed with their season overall, their three high-profile recruits have mostly stood tall.
Devon Smith has been the standout. The former Giant could well claim the Bombers’ best and fairest and with 174 tackles this season is just nine shy of Andrew Swallow’s home-and-away season record of 183.
Adam Saad has provided bounce out of defence in an aggressive partnership with Conor McKenna while ex-Bulldog Jake Stringer has 30 goals in 19 games and will finish the season as Essendon’s leading goal kicker.
At their best, both of these sides play an aggressive style of footy with quick, bold ball movement. At their worst, both can be stodgy and indecisive. Here’s hoping with the pressure off they both go with the former and we get an entertaining game.
These teams are pretty evenly matched, and while Port technically have more to play for, the Bombers are in better form and I expect them to get up by a couple of goals.
That’s my Friday night forecast. What’s yours?