Today in my postseason list breakdown series we’re taking a look at the Fremantle Dockers, a team who I – rather mistakenly – tipped to be a surprise finalist at the start of the year.

You may have noticed that writing about the Dockers today goes a little against our reverse ladder order progress so far – today’s article would usually have been about the Brisbane Lions.

However, Ryan Buckland has already given us a great read on the Lions today, so I’m swapping things up a little.

We’ll talk about Fremantle today, and you can hear my thoughts on Brisbane tomorrow instead.

List breakdown

What kind of crazy loon would pick a team like the Fremantle Dockers to play finals in 2018? Rest assured, I did have my reasons.

At the start of the year Fremantle were the tenth oldest team in the league according to their overall list, and the eighth most experienced.

It’s the profile of a team that is just about on the edge of finals and my perspective was that a Nat Fyfe renaissance plus the youthful energy of Andrew Brayshaw and Adam Cerra arriving at the club might put them in.

It wasn’t to be – and that’s because, despite the overall list profile being a fairly mature one, the Dockers were prevented from being able to put that actual maturity on field for a number of reasons.

One of those reasons is that key veterans like Michael Johnson and Danyle Pearce had, with all due respect to them, gone over the hill.

The other is that three of their most important midfielders all had seasons interrupted by injury – Nat Fyfe, and the Hill brothers, Stephen and Brad.

My tip for a Fyfe renaissance proved accurate – in the early portion of the year he was the league’s best player and looked set for a second Brownlow.

However suspension followed by injury ultimately derailed his season.

Meanwhile Brad Hill, after winning the Dockers’ best-and-fairest last year, only played ten games for the year, and Stephen only 13.

The trio managed to play together in the same side only once for the entire year – and that was arguably Fremantle’s best performance of the year, a 16-point win over Essendon in Round 2.

What the season could have been if things were different… who knows. I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t disappointed in the Dockers, but I don’t feel my optimism was entirely misplaced.

What it ultimately meant is that the team they put on the park was a pretty young one. They gave 50 per cent of games to players who were 23-and-under, well above the league average.

They also picked up 69 AFLCA votes from this group, which is just narrowly below the league average of 71. Pretty much on par.

There’s some promising names in this group: Brayshaw, Cerra, Sean Darcy, Griffin Logue, Connor Blakely, Luke Ryan, Ed Langdon, Alex Pearce, Cam McCarthy all look like quality AFL players. Bailey Banfield, Mitch Crowden, Darcy Tucker, Michael Apeness and Brennan Cox have talent as well.

Blakely in particular is another whose absence through injury cost the Dockers. He’s arguably their brightest talent in the group but missed the entire second half of the year.

What we ultimately saw was that Fremantle’s prime-age had to punch above its weight for most of the year.

Fyfe and Lachie Neale were the most prolific talents here, while Michael Walters and new recruit Nathan Wilson both played their roles well.

But the Dockers would’ve planned on getting more from the Hill brothers at the start of the year, got only nine games out of Matt Taberner, and none from Harley Bennell.

Joel Hamling and Brandon Matera are the other key names in this 24-29 age bracket – both played 18 games for the year, Matera seemingly in the absence of anyone else to challenge for his spot.

The Dockers’ veteran core is losing Danyle Pearce and Michael Johnson this year, but will have all of Aaron Sandilands, David Mundy and Hayden Ballantyne still hanging around in 2019.

These guys picked up 34 AFLCA votes for the year, which was a reasonably good return from the veteran group.

All up the Dockers acquired 260 AFLCA votes across the entire list in season 2018, which is not too far off the pace – 13th overall.

I think their list has talent in all three of the key age groups, and the kind of players they recruit are built for the modern game.

In terms of list needs, there’s only one glaring one for me: a lynchpin key forward who can tie their forward line together.

Yes they have Michael Apeness and yes they have Matthew Taberner, and either might become that player – but it’d be foolish to bet all of the club’s chips on them.

A genuine elite key forward would allow Cam McCarthy to play as a second bananna where he’d be much more effective. The domino effect on the rest of the forward line and the team as a whole would be huge.

Underperformed or overperformed?

Despite the overall list being middle of the pack for age and experience, the actual 22 that Fremantle fielded on a week-to-week basis was decidedly not so.

Their average side was about eight months younger than the league average, and they fielded the fourth youngest side of the season.

Their sides boasted 1760 games of experience on average – about 275 below the league average, and the fourth least experienced side in the competition.

Despite this they achieved eight wins, and finished 14th with a percentage of 76.2.

Verdict: Believe it or not, they overperformed. For a side in the bottom four in both average age and experience to finish three games clear of that region on the ladder was actually pretty impressive.

Contracts

All things considered Fremantle’s contract list looks to be in pretty good shape. There are no major players left hanging in 2018, and most of their crucial names are signed up even longer than that.

Now that the offseason has arrived I would say their top priority must be to get Adam Cerra to recommit to the club, probably until the end of 2021 as his fellow top-five pick Andrew Brayshaw has.

Cerra made headlines during the year when it came out that he wasn’t willing to consider signing a contract extension until the end of the year, despite being happy at the club.

The Victorian had an excellent first season in the AFL and shapes as a longterm star in Fremantle’s midfield – it’d be a real shame to lose him next year, though at least the Dockers would be well compensated if they did.

Ed Langdon is the other one I’d be looking to get signed up sooner rather than later. During the year there was talk that as many as four Victorian clubs were interested in bringing him home.

He’s got some really valuable modern AFL traits and while he’s probably not going to be Fremantle’s best player, if you’re looking at him as being one of the players on the bottom end of your midfield, then you’ve got a pretty good midfield.

Connor Blakely, Joel Hamling, Stephen Hill, Griffin Logue, Cam McCarthy, Lachie Neale and Darcy Tucker are the others who catch my eye out of the 2019 group. I wouldn’t be too worried about any of them in particular.

I wouldn’t put it past a team like Adelaide to have a crack at Lachie Neale next year, but so long as the Dockers improve on the field in 2019 – which I think they will – it shouldn’t be too hard to retain him.

2023
Nat Fyfe

2022
None

2021
Andrew Brayshaw
Mitch Crowden
Brad Hill
Nathan Wilson

2020
Bailey Banfield
Brennan Cox
Sean Darcy
Hugh Dixon
Brandon Matera
Alex Pearce
Luke Ryan
Michael Walters

2019
Michael Apeness
Hayden Ballantyne
Harley Bennell
Connor Blakely
Adam Cerra
Taylin Duman
Joel Hamling
Stephen Hill
Scott Jones
Shane Kersten
Ed Langdon
Griffin Logue
Cam McCarthy
Lloyd Meek
David Mundy
Lachie Neale
Tom North
Aaron Sandilands
Cam Sutcliffe
Sam Switkowski
Matt Taberner
Darcy Tucker

Out of contract
Stefan Giro
Brady Grey
Ethan Hughes
Michael Johnson
Ryan Nyhuis
Danyle Pearce
Tom Sheridan
Lee Spurr
Luke Strnadica

Free agency

Fremantle’s only free agents this year are players who have already confirmed they’ll be retiring, and there aren’t any free agents on the market at opposition clubs who they seem to be targetting.

Tom J Lynch or, before he signed on at Melbourne, Tom McDonald would have both been ideal recruits to fill that No.1 key forward role at the club, but neither was ever especially likely to be anywhere but Victoria in 2019.

Instead I think when it comes to free agency Fremantle’s big focus will be on 2019 – and this is going to be a common theme of this analysis, as the Dockers look set for a relatively quiet offseason.

Fremantle have been really successful in the past few years at luring Western Australian players to return to the state, with Brad Hill and Nathan Wilson being the most valuable acquisitions so far.

That being the case, they’ve certainly got to be looking at the fact that both Stephen Coniglio and David Swallow are going to be restricted free agents next year.

Coniglio has been one of the few that GWS have never really needed to worry about re-signing. I get the feeling he likely stays there – although there’s been talk, too, of Hawthorn pursuing him.

Swallow is a bit harder to read. While publicly he has indicated he plans to commit longterm to the Gold Coast Suns, privately there is rumour that he’s open to a return home.

Fremantle could be in the box seat if that happens, though the West Coast Eagles would be bound to have an interest also – especially if they lose Andrew Gaff.

I wouldn’t be confident that the Dockers land either of these players at the end of 2019, but it’s worth making contact now just to get a feel for where they’re at and what might be possible.

Trade period

2018 looks like being a quiet trade period for the Fremantle Dockers. They’ve had three players talked about as potential departures during the year, but I expect all to stay.

Ed Langdon and Adam Cerra are two of those – but both are contracted till the end of 2019, so I’d be more worried about them then rather than now.

There’s an argument in particular for trading Cerra early if the club feels there’s no chance he’d stay, but I would be against it.

After a strong first season there’s every chance he goes on with it and really stars in 2019, at which point he’ll be worth a mint at the trade table even if he is out of contract.

Brad Hill is the one there’s also been rumour about, with talk that he might want to go back to Hawthorn – but Hill publicly shut this down recently.

So let’s talk about players who could come in. The No.1 name that the Dockers should be considering this year is one they targetted heavily in 2017: Mitch McGovern.

Fremantle came at McGovern hard last year with a significant financial offer which he ultimately turned down, choosing to remain loyal to the Crows.

Well, whatever has happened behind closed doors in 2018, he clearly no longer feels that way, and on Tuesday became the first player of 2018 to formally request a trade.

All the talk is that McGovern is going to Carlton. I’m not calling anyone a liar, but that move doesn’t really make sense to me.

What is there for McGovern at Carlton that isn’t there at a club with more prospects of onfield success? And is he really the best fit for the Blues?

The trade that has been mooted is that the Blues would send pick 1 to Adelaide for McGovern and pick 7, which is a terrible idea for Carlton.

Sure, you could argue it’s probably a cheap price to pay for McGovern on ‘points value’, but to drop not just out of this year’s exceptional top two, but even entirely out of the top six, is something the Blues cannot afford to do.

And if they’re not going to do that how do they land McGovern? A priority pick maybe? It could happen, but the Crows won’t like it.

If that deal does happen, I think it happens slowly, and it happening slowly gives someone a chance to jump in and have a crack. That someone could be Fremantle.

Does McGovern solve Fremantle’s problem with needing a No.1 key forward? And do they have the trade capital to get a deal done?

The Dockers have already traded away their second, third and fourth round picks in this draft. After their first pick, currently pick 5, they don’t have another selection until pick 77.

That means they’d either have to look at moving on pick 5 this year, or probably their first-round selection in 2019. I’m not a big fan of either idea.

McGovern, while very talented, doesn’t play like a No.1 key forward either. He’s only 190cm, more of a third-tall type – possibly could be the league’s best third tall, but still third tall.

If Fremantle can finagle some sort of deal whereby they land McGovern but don’t have to derail their draft picks to do it then I’d give it a thumbs up – but I don’t see how it comes together.

The more likely target for Fremantle this offseason I think is some smaller potatoes in the form of Richmond’s Shai Bolton.

The WA-born small forward is at the end of his draftee contract and has never looked likely to re-sign with the Tigers – expect him to ask for a trade when the year ends.

Bolton was a second-round draft pick for Richmond, pick 29, and has played nine games for the club. The Dockers could probably have him for a future third-round pick.

That’d be a major coup if so. While Bolton needs to work on the defensive side of his game, he’s an electric talent, someone who could hopefully push Hayden Ballantyne or Brandon Matera out of the side long term.

There’s two other WA boys out of contract this year I’d be keeping an eye on if I were Fremantle – Reece Conca and Dean Kent.

Neither are world beaters but both have some good attributes and would be solid members of the team if you can convince them to come home. Watch this space.

What I suspect will be Fremantle’s key focus however is to already be looking at what trades they might do in 2019, and how they an look to find that No.1 key forward.

Even since the very day where Melbourne first signed Jesse Hogan we’ve endlessly heard talk about how he might return home to WA some day.

Fremantle – the club Hogan grew up supporting, and the one that will be most desperate for a player of his type – has always been mooted as the most likely destination.

There have been a few times when rumour has risen about Hogan going home, but most of the time it has proven to have relatively little substance.

The more time Hogan spends at Melbourne, the more he seems to have become a part of the team and committed to staying there.

He’s out of contract at the end of next year though and, unless the Dees sign up early, you can expect he’s one we’ll be talking about a lot in 2019.

Fremantle should already be in touch with his management about what his plans might be, and I have no doubt they are, but at the same time I wouldn’t be putting all my eggs in this basket.

Luckily for the Dockers even if they miss out on Hogan then there’s still a chance to land a quality key forward who grew up in the area at the end of 2019 anyway – GWS’ Rory Lobb.

Lobb isn’t Hogan – he has split his time between ruck and forward line, and hasn’t shown that he can be the No.1 man in the same way that Hogan has.

Still, I reckon there’s a good chance he could really flourish as that type of player if given the opportunity, and would be worth the Dockers pursuing.

There has been a lot of talk that GWS are facing something of a salary cap crunch right now, to the point where Dylan Shiel might get moved on just to balance the books.

Could Fremantle swoop in this year and offer the Giants, say, their 2019 second-round pick to secure Lobb at a bargain price and take some of that pressure off? It’s worth asking.

Two other notable WA lads out of contract at the end of 2019 – Tim Kelly, and Jack Martin.

Kelly might be traded as soon as this year, and seems a strong chance to come home sooner or later. At this stage, it seems like West Coast have the inside track.

Martin would be a great addition to any club, but the attributes he offers are ones I feel the Dockers already possess. Make contact, certainly, but he’s not a priority ahead of someone like Hogan or Lobb.

Draft

Odds are there’s not going to be a whole lot Fremantle can do this year to solve their key forward question at the trade table – instead, they should be targetting a player of this type at the draft.

Jack Lukosius will be gone by the time Fremantle’s first draft selection rolls around, but having a pick in the top six gives them a very strong chance of landing a King.

Draft pundits seem to unanimously agree that there’s a clear top six in the open pool this year – Sam Walsh and Jack Lukosius in the top two, Izak Rankine, Bailey Smith, Max and Ben King just below them.

As things currently stand, the Dockers have pick five. But, we’re expecting that’s going to get pushed down to pick six when Gold Coast get free agency compensation for Tom J Lynch.

That puts the Dockers right at the very end of this elite group meaning that, if it goes as expected, they’ll pretty much have their pick decided for them, taking whoever lasts.

If I were the Dockers I’d be crossig every digit I’ve got that the play who lasts is one of the King boys. They’ve both got the potential to be that lynchpin tall forward Fremantle is looking for.

And it’s a serious chance too. Max King missed the entire year with an ACL which will make some clubs wary – so he’s probably the best bet of lasting that long and could prove a bargain at that selection.

Ben King was able to play a pretty strong under-18 series. I’ve seen some who rank him as the sixth man of this group, and I’ve seen some who don’t – it’s hard to say where he goes.

Walsh and Lukosius should be this year’s top two, and I suspect St Kilda will take a midfielder and Brisbane will take a tall.

The wildcard is Gold Coast’s pick 3 – tall or small? It probably depends on which it is of Walsh or Lukosius that they get. Whichever they pick at 2, you’d think they go in the opposite direction at 3.

Most of the talk at the moment is that Carlton will make Sam Walsh a Blue at pick 1, so Gold Coast could go Lukosius and either Smith or Rankine with their picks.

The Saints take whichever of Smith or Rankine doesn’t go there, and Brisbane and Fremantle both get a King – it could happen.

Of course, there’s also been talk that Gold Coast could double down on the King twins at those selections. That potentially leaves Lukosius to fall through but there’s no way he makes it all the way to Freo.

Things might be less nervous for the Dockers if they could find a way to trade a little further up – as a club like St Kilda might be willing to consider – but they just don’t have the capital to do it.

Without any other picks this year, or a player they’re likely to be willing to let go, they’d probably have to delve into next year’s picks to do it, which could prove risky.

Cross your fingers and hope is unfortunately the most likely strategy. If all the talls are gone by Fremantle’s pick, expect them to put a bid on Nick Blakey from the Swans academy, then take whichever of the smalls is still on the table.

Bailey Smith and Izak Rankine are still both excellent young players. It’d hardly be a bad result.

What I said last year

“There are two key priorities for Fremantle to achieve before their premiership window due date of 2020.

“The first is to develop a style of play that can win games against the very best of opponents. This might be done under Ross Lyon, or it might not – the Dockers need to work out as soon as possible whether or not it can be.s

“The second is to find an A-grade key forward who can be hitting their peak when the list build comes to fruition. Jesse Hogan would be amazing. Rory Lobb would also be very good. If it’s not one of them, who is it?”

Outlook

One could argue that 2018 was ultimately a bit of a wasted year for Fremantle in that the two big questions they had to answer last year are still the two big questions they have to answer now.

They did manage to sink a lot of games into youth though, saw real promise from Brayshaw and Cerra in particular, and finished low enough that they’ll get one of this year’s top-tier talents at the draft.

It’s disappointing compared to what I hoped they would achieve this year, but is certainly mitigated by the injuries they copped, and I haven’t lost faith in the quality of this list.

I’m willing to give them a passmark for season 2018, and honestly I’m not expecting to see them do a whole lot of business in the offseason.

When it comes to Ross Lyon, I’m happy to back him in for 2019. Things went off the rails early this year and never really recovered, it’d be silly to overreact to that.

I want to see improvement on the field in 2019. Can Ross deliver that? While the last two years have shaken our faith in him at times, it’s still worth giving him an opportunity.

If you look at the average age and experience of the team he was able to field this year then there’s an arguement to be made that he actually punched above his weight in the coach’s box.

The search for a key forward must continue and there’s a number of avenues the Dockers can go down to pursue this.

Ideally they should look to draft one this year but also be heavily pursuing either Jesse Hogan or Rory Lobb at the trade table in 2019.

Both of these baskets are worth putting eggs in. What’s the worst that could happen – they accidentally wind up with two really good key forwards instead? Sounds pretty good to me.

One move I’d also consider though that doesn’t require a list change at all is to trial Griffin Logue in this area of the ground.

Injury prevented him from playing all but three matches in the WAFL this year, fingers crossed he is fit and can make an impact – at either end – in 2019.

The Dockers should also put David Swallow, Stephen Coniglio, Tim Kelly and Jack Martin on their watch list – but here and now in 2018, it’s going to be about little wins.

Get Shai Bolton to the club for a bargain price. Get Adam Cerra and Ed Langdon to extend their contracts beyond 2019. They might not make headlines, but they don’t need to.

Cross your fingers and hope like hell there’s a King twin available there for you when pick six comes around.

They didn’t have the season I thought they could in 2018, but the list still seems to be in healthy shape. I don’t see any reason they couldn’t have that breakout season in 2019 instead.

If they do jump into finals against next year, that’ll make it all the more easier to convince a Hogan or a Lobb that their future is in purple.