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Lachie Neale, or a Lion King? Either way, Brisbane wins

Expert
31st August, 2018
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Lachie Neale. (Photo by Paul Kane/Getty Images)
Expert
31st August, 2018
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5420 Reads

The Brisbane Lions made a splash on Thursday with two good pieces of trade news. One, Dayne Beams is staying, two, Lachie Neale might be coming.

My thanks must go to the Lions for having both of these stories break in a timely fashion – just in time me to discuss them today as we break down Brisbane’s list and look at what they might do this offseason.

List breakdown

After winning the wooden spoon last year, the Brisbane Lions entered 2018 in the bottom four for both average list age and experience. They were the third youngest list, fourth least experience.

As you would expect from this, their selection policy saw an enormous amount of gametime invested into the youngest players on their list.

55 per cent of all games to players aged 23 and under – the second-highest percentage in the league, less only than the Western Bulldogs with 56.

They record by far the best percentage (89.9) of any team to put at least half of its games into 23-and-under players, and recorded 97 AFLCA votes awarded to these players.

That was well ahead of the AFL average (71), and in fact the fifth most of any team in the league, behind only Melbourne, Collingwood, Carlton and Sydney.

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That’s a pretty strong thumbs up on the quality of this group and a quick squiz at the names in it tells us why. In Cam Rayner, Alex Withderen, Hugh McCluggage, Eric Hipwood and Harris Andrews they have potential A-graders on every line.

Cam Rayner

(AAP Image/Craig Golding)

That’s not to mention Zac Bailey, Brandon Starcevich, Connor Ballenden, Jarrod Berry, Cedric Cox, Ben Keays, Rhys Mathieson, Darcy Gardiner, Daniel McStay, Nick Robertson, Tom Cutler and Lewis Taylor, who all have at least some arguement to make that they can be solid if not very good AFL players.

Brisbane’s prime-age group is a little more concerning – they picked up a reasonable albeit not great 109 votes, but 95 of these belonged to players who are bordering on veterans status at the age of 28 and 29.

The great Daynes, Beams and Zorko, won the vast majority of these votes, though a few were also picked up along the way by the likes of Daniel Rich and Mitch Robinson.

If you look at the younger end of Brisbane’s prime-age group, those aged 24-27, there are 11 players in this group but they played only a total of 87 games across the season. The league average for players in this age-range is almost double that (168).

The league average AFLCA votes from players aged 24-27 on a list is 135 – the Lions got just 14.

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What’s the issue here? The simple thing is that this is the age group where the likes of Jared Polec (26), Elliot Yeo, Sam Docherty and to a lesser degree Billy Longer (all 25) would’ve been expected to be doing the heavy lifting.

Instead it’s fairly barren, and the Lions have looked to address this by bringing in players in this range through trade. Six of 11 players on their list who are 24-27 have played at other clubs before Brisbane – Charlie Cameron, Josh Walker, Jack Frost, Ryan Bastinac, Tom Bell, Allen Christensen.

Cameron and Christensen are the only real hits on that list and even they have both had a limited impact on the Lions due to injury so far. That leaves the five organic Lions in this age range – Sam Mayes, Ryan Lester, Marco Paparone, Oscar McInerney and Claye Beams.

The short version is that the Lions just aren’t getting enough production from this particular age range on their list. With Beams and Zorko only having a limited number of years left, they risk a period of regression if if those two start to wane before the younger stars are ready to propely take over as the core of the team.

There’s a chance that we’ll see this happen through the fitness an improvement of Charlie Cameron and Allen Christense, the long-awaited breakout of Sam Mayes, and the continued development of relative latecomer Oscar McInerney.

However, it makes a lot of sense that the Lions would be pursuing top-quality talent from other clubs that fits into this age range – so the link to Lachie Neale appears to be a very prudent course of action.

In terms of their veteran players, Brisbane have pretty much nailed it. Stefan Martin and Luke Hodge are the only ones in this category right now, and both are great.

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Luke Hodge

(Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)

Martin is as valuable to the Lions as Shane Mumford was to GWS – not only is he one of the league’s more underrated players, but his sheer size and physical dominance does a lot to protect Brisbane’s younger bodies in the clinches.

Luke Hodge is Luke Hodge, and his excellence requires no further elucidation.

The pair delivered a total of 43 AFLCA votes for the year, which is on par with the competition average of 48. Both have signed on for 2019, which is great, and by the time they finish up, it will be the likes of Beams and Zorko providing this veteran touch.

Overall there’s so much to like about Brisbane’s list and where it’s going. I have only a few things n their wishlist, but none of them are gaping holes.

First, as discussed, it’d be great to get some more mature and high-quality talent in that 24-27 age range to bridge the gap between Beams-Zorko and Hipwood-Rayner-McCluggage-Witherden-Andrews.

Second, a longterm tall forward partner for Eric Hipwood. Daniel McStay or Connor Ballenden could fill this role, but it’d be great to bring in a truly top-tier talent to fill this role.

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Thirdly, there’s a need to look at the future of the ruck. Oscar McInerney might be able to take over for Stef Martin retires, so it’s not pressing, but they Lions should look to add another good prospect here.

Finally – midfield depth, midfield depth, midfield depth. The Lions do have some young star power here but modern AFL requires more than just a handful of stars, and Beams and Zorko are responsible for a lot of the heavy lifting right now.

Underperformed or overperformed?

The side the Lions put on the field each week lines up pretty closely with their overall list profile.

They were about nine months younger than the average age, and the third-youngest side in the league, older only than Gold Coast and the Bulldogs.

They boasted about 1833 games of experience, 200 games less than the average, making them the sixth-least experienced side in the league.

It’s worth noting that Luke Hodge alone often accounted for more than one-sixth of the entire experience of the 22.

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They ultimately had a season record that reads kind of weirdly – only five wins, but just a tick under a percentage of 90. They finished 15th.

Verdict: It really depends on how you look at it. From an average age perspective, they overperformed. From an experience perspective, they got it about right. But looking at their actual number of wins, they probably underperformed. About even overall.

Contracts

After years of suffering from well-publicised player retention problems, the Brisbane Lions’ contract list at the end of 2018 is super impressive.

The only player left out of contract this year that I’d say is a priority to re-sign is Mitch Robinson. I don’t think he’s any risk of leaving though.

Even the 2019 group doesn’t appear to be at too much risk of an exodus. There’s a few good kids in there, but Brisbane’s most crucial are all signed up till the end of 2020 or further.

Contracts don’t always mean everything, of course, but the Lions don’t seem set to cop any sensational trade requests – especially after Dayne Beams made it clear yesterday that he’s committed to the club.

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Dayne Beams Brisbane Lions AFL 2017

(Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)

Here’s the Lions contract list:

2021
Harris Andrews
Zac Bailey
Charlie Cameron
Hugh McCluggage
Cam Rayner
Daniel Rich
Brandon Starcevich

2020
Jacob Allison
Dayne Beams
Jarrod Berry
Cedric Cox
Eric Hipwood
James Madden
Jack Payne
Archie Smith
Alex Witherden
Toby Wooller
Dayne Zorko

2019
Connor Ballenden
Ryan Bastinac
Allen Christensen
Tom Cutler
Tom Fullarton
Jack Frost
Darcy Gardiner
Luke Hodge
Ben Keays
Corey Lyons
Stefan Martin
Rhys Mathieson
Sam Mayes
Oscar McInerney
Daniel McStay
Nick Robertson
Sam Skinner
Lewis Taylor

Out of contract
Jake Barrett
Claye Beams
Tom Bell
Rohan Bewick
Liam Dawson
Matt Eagles
Cian Hanley
Mitchell Hinge
Ryan Lester
Marco Paparone
Mitch Robinson
Josh Walker

Free agency

Free agency offers clubs the chance to have their cake and eat it too – they can bring in mature talent and yet not need to sacrifice their draft picks to do it. This is perfect for Brisbane.

There’s a few different players who help tick off some of the items on Brisbane’s wishlist that are available on the market this year.

Mitch Wallis is one they’ve been linked to on a regular basis, and would provide both midfield depth and another mature body in the 24-27 range.

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He isn’t an elite player though – pretty similar to another Brisbane recruit in Ryan Bastinac. So I’m not sure this is the right path to go down.

Wallis’ teammate Luke Dahlhaus would arguably be a better fit. He’s just shown a bit more talent at his peak although 2018 has been a difficult year. He’d bring premiership experience too.

It’s probably too late to have a serious crack at him, given that he seems to be all but certain to join Geelong on a four-year, $2 million deal.

Free agency does also give the Lions a chance to add another ruckman, with both Scott Lycett and Jordan Roughead on the market.

Lycett would be a great get, as he’s not only a valuable support ruckman but also handy enough as a forward line target.

It seems like St Kilda and Port Adelaide are both going hard at his services though, and it’d be difficult for the Lions to swoop in here unless they want to break the bank.

A better value option might be Jordan Roughead from the Western Bulldogs. He’s not going to become their first-choice ruck, but could provide a valuable back-up option not just in the ruck but also as a tall defender.

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Overall I don’t expect the Lions to be super busy in free agency this year – Mitch Wallis seems the biggest chance, but I’d think is more likely to stay in Victoria, probably by going to Essendon.

Trade period

Yesterday was a big news day for Brisbane with regards to the trade period, and both of the stories that broke were good for them.

Firstly, Dayne Beams made it abundantly clear that he’s not going to be requesting a trade home this year, and will stay out his contract with Brisbane.

Does that mean he’s some risk of looking for a trade instead when his deal finishes at the end of 2020? Maybe, but the Lions will be prepared by then if so.

Secondly, we heard for the first time that Brisbane is making a big play for Lachie Neale, willing to put pick four on the table – and best of all, Neale is interested.

Lachie Neale

(Photo by Will Russell/AFL Media/Getty Images)

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Neale has reportedly already gone to those running the show at Fremantle to broach the idea of a trade and been knocked back – but there’s plenty of time for them to change their minds.

Recruiting Neale would be a major coup for the Lions in the sense that not only is he the perfect age to help fill the gap on their list, but would also strengthen their midfield depth significantly.

The mooted trade is likely a straight swap of pick 4 for him – I’d feel that’s about right given that Neale is in contract for 2019.

My only concern is that if the Lions swap pick 4 away for Neale, it robs them of the opportunity to use it at the draft this year, when that could be an avenue to tick something else off their wishlist – but more on that later.

There’s one other player that I reckon the Lions ought to be gunning to bring at the trade table this year if they can, and that is – and it pains to me to suggest this – North Melbourne’s Braydon Preuss.

The Lions do have a need to look at the longterm future of their ruck stocks, and Preuss, a 23-year-old with his talent proven at senior level, would be a perfect fit.

Moreover, he’s a Queenslander, and would be able to see that he’s probably only a year away – two at most – from being the Lions’ No.1 ruck choice, so would probably be open to the move.

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As a North fan I’d hate to see him get away cheaply, but the Lions’ second-round selection, pick 22, would probably get the deal done.

Draft

Earlier in the year when the Lions were battling to get wins on the board it looked like they were a good chance to secure a dream recruit in Sam Walsh.

It’s not that the Lions desperately need Walsh as much as say Gold Coast, but the fact the he grew up as a Brisbane fan with a poster of Simon Black on his bedroom wall.

You’d have to think he would’ve been a bankable selection to stay at the club longterm and add another layer of superstar talent to Brisbane’s emerging young midfield.

Won’t happen, c’est la vie. Their pick is just too low to get him – if not gone at pick 1, he’ll be gone at pick 2.

Instead the Lions, if they were to retain their first pick in the draft – currently 4, likely 5 after Lynch compensation – have the opportunity to address a different list need: a long term partner for Eric Hipwood.

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While the Lions do have some other tall forward options on their list, history suggests that the vast majority of quality key forwards are taken early in the draft, and there isn’t necesarilly a player who has clearly shown the talent required to suggest this position in the team is locked away.

If the Lions improve the way we’re all thinking they might then they might not have a draft pick this high again, so this might be the last chance they get to add a player of this quality organically.

Odds are at their picks there’s still going to be at least one of the King twins, Max and Ben, still available. Either could fill the role. How good would it be to have a Lion King?

Ben King

(Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)

Brisbane also have picks 22 and 40 in side the first three rounds.

Pick 22 probably depends a bit on what they’ve brought in so far. If they don’t get a tall earlier, than they might look take a punt on Bailey Williams.

The 198cm 91kg ruck forward isn’t among this year’s top tier talls, but looks like he could develop into an athletic forward who can go into the ruck.

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Those are both areas on the list where the Lions could use a little more talent, so the pick makes sense.

They could also use this pick to address the question of midfield depth. Someone like Riley Collier-Dawkins might be available at this pick and would be a good fit.

The Lions will also get a chance to land a big-bodied mid through their academy in Connor McFayden. They might need to use their second pick to match a bid for him, but more likely can do so with their third selection.

What I said last year

“While the veteran core of Martin, Zorko, Robinson and Beams remain, there’s a chance that their good form can dovetail with the rise of the young guns, and drive the Lions swiftly up the ladder.

“That might happen in say the next two or three years. After that, I would expect a levelling-out process to occur when those players retire, as the younger brigade may not quite be ready to step into their shoes.

“When they do come of age though, watch out. If they play their cards right, the Brisbane Lions can be premiership contenders around say the mid-2020s.”

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Outlook

I’m no less bullish on Brisbane than I was last year – arguably moreso, in fact, and I’d say most people are.

Whereas teams like St Kilda have a quantity of young players and a team like Carlton has quality of young players, the Lions have both.

On top of that, they’ve got some really great mature players in the likes of Beams, Zorko, Martin and Hodge to help support the development of those young stars on the field.

Their big upcoming challenge is to navigate that gap where players aged 24-27 should be but arent because of the go-home five.

For most clubs my advice would be to simply ride it out – accept that although they’re going to improve a bit soon, they’ll probably then regress a little before hitting their peak.

But Brisbane are a side for whom that is a more troublesome thing to complicate than most, purely due too geographical location.

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If the players do hit a trough and lose momentum, they’re likely to get it frustrated, and that’ll make it easier for Victorian clubs to prey on expat talent, which they no doubt will try to do.

From that perspective a deal for Lachie Neale does seem like a winner. He makes sense both in terms of age and position as a near ideal recruit for the Lions.

However, they do face something of a dilemma, because there are two paths they can go down this offseason, and they’re mutually exclusive.

Before hearing the Neale news yesterday my thought was that Brisbane were in a great position this year to draft Ben or Max King as their longterm forward partner for Eric Hipwood.

Yes, I know smaller forward lines are all the rage these days, but even Richmond – the supposed pioneers of this tactic – are going to bring in a partner for Jack Riewoldt this offseason.

It just makes the forward line so much less predictable if there’s two quality tall targets there instead of one, and will prevent Hipwood getting monstered by multiple defenders in the future.

Eric Hipwood Brisbane Lions AFL 2017

(Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)

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The problem is that really top quality key forwards are hard to find unless you take them very early in the draft or land them via trade/free agency, both of which are opportunities that only come around early.

I don’t see the Lions having a pick high enough to land a key forward the quality of Max or Ben King in the draft any time again soon so if they don’t do it this year they’ll probably have to compromise on talent for this position.

And yes, of course, before you point it out – I know that untried draftees are never any guarantee and take longer to have an impact, so there’s no need to tell me as such in the comments.

There’s no doubt that bringing in Lachie Neale would accelerate their rise up the ladder. That’s appealing for a number of reasons, but is not without its potential pitfalls.

If the Lions spend their early draft picks on mature talent then it’ll help them navigate that gap on their list better, but at the same time they risk making another one right here and now.

In my opinion, the No.1 way the clubs bugger up their lists is that as soon as they get a hint of success, they lose interest in the draft and go hard at brining in mature talent – but this is exactly what leaves them facing list problems again before too long.

Look for example at Port Adelaide who got back into finals thanks to young drafted talent like Ollie Wines and Chad Wingard, then blew all their chips at the trade table three years running and went steadily down the ladder as they did it.

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That’s not to say I’m against the Neale trade. Whichever way they go, Lachie Neale or a Lion King, Brisbane are going to be on a winner. It looks like the former.

Both approaches will probably mean they miss out on something but as long as they’re conscious of this and don’t abandon the draft as a method of bringing in talent, they’ll be alright.

The only other path I’d suggest taking is perhaps, if they can pull it off, making a handshake deal with Lachie Neale to stay out his contract with Fremantle and then join the Lions as an FA at the end of next year.

This would mean that Brisbane could draft one of the Kings this year, then get Neale ahead of season 2020 – either for free, or at least probably paying a low price in terms of pick if as we expect they rise up the ladder next season.

It’s the best of both worlds if Neale is willing to wait, which we don’t know whether or not he would be. If he does, other clubs will no doubt try to force their way into the equation, so there is some risk attached and you can see why the Lions would prefer a bird in hand to two in the bush.

Do I think they can make finals in 2019, as per Ryan Buckland’s piece on them yesterday? Absolutely. That said, I feel the same way about 14 other teams, so it’s not going to be easy.

I’ll be fascinated to see how it all plays out for them. They’ll be a very good side sooner or later, and I can’t wait to see just how good.

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