The return of my weekly specials comes this Saturday, 29 June, at Caulfield.
Spring is in the air and the quality of the racing at Caulfield and Randwick tomorrow is almost a better indicator than the calendar.
Everywhere you look tomorrow there are quality thoroughbreds running around. While we won’t see Winx, there are dozens of Group 1 winners and contenders entered for races.
Last year’s inaugural winner of The Everest, Redzel, resumes in Sydney in what looks to be a match race against Invincible Star.
The Concorde Stakes probably won’t be a great betting race, but I suggest if Redzel gets close to $1.90 he’s the best bet of the day.
As always, the Memsie Stakes at Caulfield looks a cracker. This race never fails to disappoint. It provides the perfect mix of sprinters and middle distance horses, as well as the odd stayer looking for a first-up hitout.
It should be the talking point on Saturday night.
After some disappointing results last week, I’m confident of bouncing back with a few winners. Don’t forget, the early nominations for the Melbourne Cup and Caulfield Cup have been released, so you can start following some of these hopefuls on their journey to glory on the first Tuesday in November.
Caulfield (VIC) – Rail out 6 metres entire circuit. Track Good 4 at time of writing. Showers forecast.
Race 7 – 4:10pm Group 1 Memsie Stakes (1400m): Another cracking rendition of the Memsie and there’s quality across the board. Favourite Vega Magic will be hardest to beat.
At his best he’s amongst the topliners in the country. But has been known to be inconsistent at times.
Kementari should be in the mix, but was slightly plain against Winx and it will be interesting to see how he backs off that run.
At his best, he would go close, but he’s still pretty short and I’m not prepared to take that price.
Happy Clapper at the top is first-up and I don’t like backing horses fresh in big races like this, but his first-up record is sound and he would be right in this if he’s in good condition.
The Mick Price-trained Grunt has a class edge on some of his rivals, but he probably wants further and a good crack at the wide spaces of Flemington. But he could be a knockout horse.
A lot of good winning chances, but I feel that if Vega Magic does front up with his best, he will be too good tomorrow.
Suggested bet: Vega Magic to win.
Race 8 – 4:50pm Group 3 The Heath (1100m): This is a Group 3 race with some Group 1 winners among it so it makes for an above average rendition of this race. It certainly should be a Group 2 event.
Voodoo Lad is favourite and gets back Brad Rawiller for this assignment. The two have a terrific record together and when you throw Caulfield into the mix it makes for an appealing betting prospect.
Voodoo Lad has raced six times at Caulfield for four wins and two placings and has raced five times at 1100m for five wins. Brad Rawiller has ridden him four times for four wins.
I think he’ll be too good on Saturday, but there is one horse that could be worth having a saver on.
The Toby Edmonds-trained Whypeeo is a sharp horse at his best and could run a big race at odds. Could be one for the blackbook.
Suggested bet: Voodoo Lad to win.
Randwick (NSW) – Rail out 10 metres between 1600m and winning post. Track good four at time of writing.
Race 6 – 3:10pm Group 2 Tramway Stakes (1400m): Very good race, this. The bookmakers suggest that Le Romain and Pierata are the main players and I would have to agree with them. Although, I am leaning towards the latter, prepared by Greg Hickman.
Pierata was superb when resuming against Kementari in the Missile Stakes and has since gone back to the trials for a soft hitout and victory. This horse has always shown ability, but as a four-year-old he might be hitting his peak.
I think if Pierata shows up and produces his best, the rest are racing for second. Don’t forget to throw Tom Melbourne into your exotics as we all know this lad loves to run a place.
Suggested bet: Pierata to win.
Race 7 – 3:50pm Group 2 Chelmsford Stakes (1600m): Winx would have been a great addition to this race, because without her it’s lacking some quality.
Godolphin is well represented with three runners, but it’s Chris Waller who has the most horses in the field, with seven running around.
Based on the way this race is going to map out, this is almost a dartboard job. When in doubt, look for a horse that won’t need luck to win.
The Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott-trained Cabeza De Vaca was solid in his Group 1 debut in the Winx Stakes and should find this a little easier.
He’s likely to be leading or just off the leaders and has a terrific second-up record, with three wins from four attempts. He looks the safest each-way option.
Suggested bet: Cabeza De Vaca each-way.
Race 8 – 4:30pm Group 2 Furious Stakes (1200m): Tricky three-year-old fillies race and punters are going to have a hard time picking out a clear favourite.
I could make a case for about 10 of these, but one I want to talk about is Oohood at the top of the tree.
This filly hasn’t won a race yet, but she’s still racked up $1 million in prizemoney. Her run in the Blue Diamond in February was full of merit when she finished third, while her second in the Golden Slipper would have been heartbreaking for connections.
Probably the worst run of her career was last start, where she was fifth behind some of her rivals tomorrow. But there were excuses.
If we see the best of her, she can win this.
Suggeted bet: Oohood each-way.
Total spend in 2018: $800*
Total return in 2018: $1083*
* Based on $20 spend per selection and BetEasy’s top tote dividend.