After a bit of treading water last week (I was down 1.4 units on the day), we head to Rosehill this Saturday for a bit of a middling meeting.
There’s some solid racing across the country this Sunday, with most eyes on the last race at Geelong. Here are my five plays for the afternoon.
Bet 1: Win – Moree Race 3, number two: Squared
She’s the bet of the day. Connie Greig has this mare absolutely flying at the moment. She had a sharp win two back at Narromine before going to Gunnedah, where she was well supported and looked to have her chance but was solid enough in defeat when second to Escebee. She gets the perfect sit off speedster Sweet Missile and should have last say.
Win odds: at $2.90 (BetEasy)
Bet 2: Win – Moree Race 7, number six: Absolute Ripper
Absolute Ripper is an Alison Smith-trained mare who was confidently supported when resuming over 800 metres at Narromine. She led for the most part and looked the winner but was bloused late by Squared, who had a 12-kilogram weight swing. She has an outstanding second-up record and I think she’ll be better-suited here up in trip.
Win odds: $2.60 (BetEasy)
Bet 3: Quaddie – Geelong
This is a ripping program with so much depth, so hopefully there’s some value to be had in the quaddie. Tardis looks to be racing well and should appreciate the drop in grade and depth third up. I didn’t mind the odds for Hochadel in Race 8, but I’ll be going wide in search of value. The penultimate has a Saturday-class field with several Stakes-class horses. And the last, it’s all about Tamasa and how forward he is.
Stake: 12.5 per cent
Bet 4: Win – Toowoomba Race 1, number four: Tony’s Decree
He wins, doesn’t he? David Vandyke trains this three-year-old gelding, who ran over the 1666 at Ippy last time and, to be fair, probably had his chance but just got bloused late by Justdini. He should lead these for fun – the depth engaged looks very thin. He should win, but he’s getting near his last chance.
Win odds: $2.25 (Neds)
Bet 5: Each-way – Devonport Race 9, number seven: Really Sure
I think she’s at crazy odds in a tricky race. Terence Evans has this mare going quite well. She’s had around three weeks between runs since racing at this track and distance, when she sat well back in the run and was held up early – but once she got clear, she worked home quite well and was far from disgraced in running third. I’m happy to have something on each way.
Win odds: $17.00; place odds: $3.75 (Bet365)
All odds correct at the time of writing.