After reaching the grand final last year, the Adelaide Crows were arguably the most disappointing team of 2018, dropping all the way to 12th and missing out on finals by a significant margin.

They’ve endured constant speculation about why the quality of their performance has dropped off so dramatically throughout the season, but a breakdown of their list suggests they can bounce back quickly.

List breakdown

High expectations of the Adelaide Crows in 2018 were justified by the fact that, after adding veteran age players like Bryce Gibbs and Sam Gibson over the offseason, they entered the year with the oldest list in the competition, and third-most experienced.

Of the teams we’ve looked at so far, they’re the worst not to have been employing a youth policy. In fact they put just 27 per cent of games into players aged 23 or younger, a decent chunk below the league benchmark of 38 per cent.

These players ultimately earned 51 AFLCa votes – a fairly strong effort compared to a league average of 71, considering Adelaide fielded less players in this category than most.

Matt Crouch, Wayne Milera and Tom Doedee were the names who starred for the Crows in this category this year, but it also includes Darcy Fogarty, Jordan Gallucci, Lachlan Murphy, Riley Knight, Reilly O’Brien and Myles Poholke.

While the Crows fielded less youth than most, those games were largely put back into prime-age players. The Crows gave 56 per cent of games to players aged 24-29, compared to a league average that is about 47 per cent.

This group contains just about all of Adelaide’s most important names: Rory Sloane, Taylor Walker, Bryce Gibbs, Rory Laird, Daniel Talia, Tom T Lynch, Josh Jenkins, Brodie Smith, Paul Seedsman, Luke Brown, Matt Crouch, Mitch McGovern, Kyle Hartigan, Hugh Greenwood – and also Rory Atkins and Cam Ellis-Yolmen.

However the Crows probably would have liked to get even more games out of this group if it had been possibly to do so, but it’s here where they felt the weight of injuries the hardest.

Brad Crouch didn’t play a game all year, Brodie Smith only the last two, while Sloane and Walker in particular both had to deal with significantly interrupted seasons.

They collected 205 AFLCA votes from this group overall, ahead of the league average of 179, but would have planned to be more prolific.

In terms of veteran players, Adelaide were about on par with the rest of the league. Sam Jacobs, Richard Douglas, David Mackay and Eddie Betts are the key players here, though both Jacobs and Betts seemed to go over the hill this year.

That being the case, two things on my wishlist for the Crows are small forwards and a mature ruck option.

The Crows would no doubt have planned on Charlie Cameron being the longterm successor to Betts, unfortunately, those plans have been interrupted. They need to explore other options.

Reilly O’Brien has long been mooted as the likely successor to Sam Jacobs, but given he is 23 and has only played two AFL games, it’d be nice to have another option just for security.

My number one thing to target for the Crows however is elite midifeld talent. They’ve got depth but haven’t always stacked up as well pound-for-pound.

This was addressed somewhat with the addition of Bryce Gibbs last year and then, unfortunately, we didn’t really get to see him, Sloane and the Crouch brothers all have a run at the same time.

This might feel like less of an immediate need if we’re able to get Sloane and Brad Crouch fit and firing in 2019, but it’s still something to target.

Underperformed or overperformed?

On average the Crows fielded a side that was just a tick under 26 years old, making them the second oldest team in the league on average, behind only Hawthorn.

The side they put on the field had 2251 games of experience on average, which was the sixth-most of any side. Four of the five teams to field more experience than the Crows this year made finals – with Port Adelaide the only exception.

Ultimately the Crows finished in 12th with a 12-10 record and a percentage of 104.1.

Verdict: Underperformed, by just about every possible metric.

Contracts

Last year I wrote that the Crows were facing another contract crisis in 2019 with seven crucial players needing new deals at the end of 2018.

I’m pleased to say that the Crows successfully re-signed all seven of them, and neither their 2018 or 2019 contract groups look to have any major flight risks in them.

Of the players still out of contract, I’d say Andy Otten, Cam Ellis-Yolmen, Kyle Cheney and Lachie Murphy should all get new deals.

Hugh Greenwood is probably the top priority of the 2019 group, but unlikely to be a problematic, and the Crows will have to spend some time navigating the fact that both Sam Jacobs and Reilly O’Brien come out of contract next year.

2023
Rory Sloane

2022
None

2021
Matt Crouch
Tom Doedee
Darcy Fogarty
Bryce Gibbs
Josh Jenkins
Rory Laird
Tom T Lynch
Andrew McPherson
Paul Seedsman
Brodie Smith
Daniel Talia
Taylor Walker

2020
Rory Atkins
Eddie Betts
Luke Brown
Brad Crouch
Jordan Gallucci
Kyle Hartigan
Elliott Himmelberg
Mitch McGovern
Wayne Milera
Myles Poholke

2019
Richard Douglas
Hugh Greenwood
Sam Jacobs
Jake Kelly
Alex Keath
Riley Knight
David Mackay
Reilly O’Brien

Out of contract
Kyle Cheney
Ben Davis
Harry Dear
Jackson Edwards
Cam Ellis-Yolmen
Sam Gibson
Curtly Hampton
Paul Hunter
Ben Jarman
Lachlan Murphy
Andy Otten
Matthew Signorello
Patrick Wilson

Free agency

The Crows have already passed their major free agency test of 2018 by successfully re-signing Rory Sloane on a five-year contract.

There were times during the year when it looked like things might go the other way, so it’s a major coup for the Crows that Sloane committed long term.

The probably had to give him a longer contract than would usually be offered to a player of his age, but sometimes it’s worth it to get your man.

I’m not expecting the Crows to bring in a free agent this year but it could be worth them taking a looking at some of the smaller forwards on the market.

Daniel Menzel is a South Australian and would come very cheap – but obviously has injury risks attached, and probably isn’t the kind of forward the Crows are looking for.

Alex Fasolo might be someone who would be a better fit, and I wouldn’t mind seeing what kind of impact he’d have playing at a club like Adelaide.

Doesn’t look super likely though – Fasolo is all but signed and sealed to arrive at Carlton on a three-year deal, and I doubt the Crows would be willing to match that kind of offer.

Trade period

The Crows wound up being very active at the trade table last year and you can expect to see the same thing happen again in 2018.

First off, Mitch McGovern has asked for a trade out of the club, so you’d expect that at some point a deal would be cut for him.

McGovern is contracted at the club for another two years to come, but the Crows have said they’ll make a deal if the return they get is good enough.

It’s a little concerning that a good young player like McGovern wants out, especially with it not being clear why, but in terms of player type McGovern is one the Crows can afford to lose.

They’re already essentially playing him as a fourth tall behind Taylor Walker, Josh Jenkins and Tom T Lynch.

If they want a like for like in the best 22 than Darcy Fogarty has already shown he knows how to play, or they could replace him with small.

I’ve wondered for a while what kind of impact he might have if swung back into defence, and it was never really done in earnest at Adelaide – but they’re reasonably well set here anyway.

Ultimately if the Crows can get a good return for him at the trade table, then I’m happy enough to write it off as no big loss.

So what exactly is that good return going to be? No doubt the Crows’ No.1 priority will be too look at any way possible of moving up the draft order this year.

The 2018 draft has proven to boast a bumper crop of South Australian talent, including prospects who could go in the first handful of picks.

Given they’ve had some rentention problems the Crows will no doubt be exceptionally keen to see if they can move up the order and snatch one of those players.

Key forward Jack Lukosius is the man the Crows would be looking at with pick 1 if they can get it, but they’d also be keen on Izak Rankine, who seems likely to fall round pick 3-6.

Luckily for them, the club McGovern has been rumoured to want to go to, Carlton, is already holding the No.1 pick.

The trade that has been put forward by pundits in the media is pick 1 to the Crows for pick 7 and McGovern, and in real terms, that’s probably about a fair deal, if not a little kind to the Blues.

Your average player drafted at pick 1 is probably not that much better than your average pick 7, and to get a proven quality player like McGovern to make up the gap is fair.

Unfortunately for the Crows, the trade market doesn’t run on such realistic analysis, and the mythologising of pick 1 ensures they’ll have to pay more handsomely for it.

Personally if I were the Blues I wouldn’t be letting the top selection go this year unless someone is willing to include a top-six pick in the deal for it.

There’s a reasonably clear top six in this year’s draft and moving to the bottom of it isn’t too much of a loss, but moving outside of it is a fairly quick drop-off in terms of proven talent.

The Crows don’t have a pick in this range so if the Blues aren’t willing to trade themselves out of the top tier than they’re not going to have a lot of luck snaring pick 1.

If pick 1 goes off the table then it’ll be hard to see what deal gets McGovern to the Blues – if they get pick 11 as a priority selection that would probably get it done.

More likely is that they get pick 19 as a priority selection or can offer 2019’s second-round pick for him. For a contracted player, as the Crows, I’d be crossing my arms and saying no deal.

It’s worth noting that McGovern hasn’t officially nominated a destination as yet so might wind up looking to go elsewhere.

Fremantle in his home state would make a degree of sense, and McGovern strikes me as the kind of player Hawthorn could come from under the radar to secure.

Definitely a watch-this-space kind of deal, but let’s look instead at other ways the Crows might move up the order.

At the moment we’re expecting Gold Coast will have picks 2 and 3 after getting compensation for Tom Lynch, and if the Crows want a top-tier pick I reckon they are the ones to target.

Adelaide have pick 7, Melbourne’s first pick, and pick 19 (before any compensation or priority picks), plus whatever they get for McGovern, so they’ve got a huge amount of currency.

If they can land pick 2 from Gold Coast then there’s a strong chance they get Lukosius anyway as most reports are that the Blues are leaning towards midfielder Sam Walsh with pick 1.

Even if the Blues decide to pick Lukosius, the Crows could then take Izak Rankine at pick 2, who arguably fits their immediate list needs better anyway.

This is where the option for live trading in this year’s draft has the potential to be very exciting.

I suspect the Suns will go into this year’s draft wanting Sam Walsh above all else, and might not be willing to make a deal until they know for sure which way Carlton go at the first pick.

Picks 2 or 3 might then be moved to the Crows just moments before the players’ names are read out.

As much as I know Crows fans will be eyeing it off, and the media very excited by the idea, my gut feel is that Adelaide won’t ultimately be successful in trading into the top six – it’d be a major coup if they do, but I don’t think it happens.

That still leaves them with as many as three or four draft picks in the top 20 to spend and while they should take at least some of them to the draft, I reckon it’d also be worth considering what mature South Australians they could target with them.

Lachie Neale seems like a chance to land at the Brisbane Lions this year if the Dockers are willing to let him go, but is there a chance that Adelaide could poach the deal?

He’s maybe not their highest need given the emergence of a similar player in Matt Crouch in recent years, but would still be worth asking about.

If not, then the Crows could also look to get involved in this deal as a third party. Brisbane are known to have put pick 4 on the table, so perhaps this is Adelaide’s best shot at moving into the top six.

The Crows could propose a deal where say Fremantle gets pick 7 and Melbourne’s first pick, Brisbane get Lachie Neale, and the Crows get pick 4.

Pick 4 and Mitch McGovern for pick 1 would probably be too good of a deal for Carlton to say no too, and while they’d have paid a high price to do it, Adelaide would get Lukosius.

I suspect the Dockers would probably rather have pick 4 if they’re willing to make a deal for Neale than have a collection of later picks, but it’d be worth broaching the subject.

Luke Dunstan is also one to look at. St Kilda seem a bit out of their minds at the moment and he strikes me as one who could be had reasonably cheap.

The Crows have Carlton’s pick 19 this year and I reckon if they offered that to the Saints they’d probably consider it. Dunstan likely wouldn’t be opposed to the move either.

However the No.1 expat SA boy at the top of my list for Adelaide to target is Orazio Fantasia – sorry, Oraaaazio Faaaantaaaasiaaaa.

With Betts in decline and Cameron no longer at the club the Crows badly need a smaller forward who can make some magic. I’d put pick 7 and maybe even more on the table for him without a second thought.

Draft

We’ve all heard about this year’s strong South Australian crop at the draft, so let’s talk about those players a bit.

Jack Lukosius is the headline act who will almost certainly be drafted in the top two. He’s a mobile, athletic key forward in the mould of Nick Riewoldt, and some believe the best tall forward prospect we’ve seen since Lance Franklin.

Izak Rankine is the next cab off the rank, looking certain to be drafted somewhere between pick 3 and pick 6. He’s an undersized midfielder-forward with electric talent, pound-for-pound the most exciting player in the draft.

Just outside the top six at this year’s draft are Conor Rozee and Jackson Hatley. They haven’t gotten the press of Lukosius or Rankine, but were both solid performers this year at under-18 level.

Both are pretty versatile types. Rozee probably shapes more as a half-forward right now, while Hatley could probably play anywhere on the ground that his new club wants him to.

Luke Valente also looks likely to figure into the top 25. He was South Australia’s captain this year and voted the team MVP by his peers – pretty impressive when you consider the quality of the talent he was up against.

That speaks to his character and positive impact on the players around him and while he may not be as prodigiously talented as some of the best prospects, those factors alone could be considered reason enough to recruit him.

While it’s Lukosius who the Crows are believed to be most keen on, personally I like Rankine as the player who would be able to have the earliest impact for them.

He could debut in a small forward role in Round 1 next year and then as he matures over time can take up more and more of a mdifield role.

Lukosius obviously is talented enough that it doesn’t matter, but he’s not as much of an immediate need for the Crows – though having him on the list would leave them with no fear about the future of their key forward stocks.

The Crows will probably miss out on both unless they trade up the order, but with the picks they have now they’re every chance of landing the other three.

Rozee at pick 7 seems a likely result, while there’s a good chance Hately could be there at Melbourne’s first pick (though Port Adelaide will probably have one or two picks before this and could pounce), and Valente a good chance at pick 19.

Of course, the Crows could also draft non-South Australian players! They’ve shown a preference to do so if there’s a talent of suitable quality available at their selections, though.

What I said last year

“They’ve been patient with their list build and they’ve continued to invest in the draft even when also making big plays in the trade and free agency market.

“As a result they have a beautifully well-balanced list which in my opinion has no significant gaps either in an on-field sense or in terms of the age brackets.

“They have talent of all shapes, sizes and ages, and if they can continue to deliver on that talent in the same way they have over the last two years – and re-sign the majority of it – then I see no reason why they shouldn’t consistently make finals for the foreseeable future.

“Whether they can convert that into a premiership somewhere along the way I suspect will depend somewhat on the ability of their stars to really go to the next level.”

Outlook

Really a look at Adelaide’s list overall suggests they’re still in a pretty strong position, despite a disappointing year.

They’ve got plenty of talent in their prime-age group, some handy veterans, a reasonably strong youth contingent, and a bounty of draft picks to turn into either more youth or more mature talent.

My main concern with them is the same concern everyone else has, namely, what the hell happened in 2018?

Just about everything that could go wrong this year did go wrong, ranging from stories of a bizarre pre-season camp to recent news that captain Tex Walker was punished for breaking team drinking rules.

I’m trying to look primarily at what can be measured about a club’s list in this series, so won’t be speculating too much about the more intangible aspects of what makes a club successful, or not.

Suffice to say the Crows’ list is in healthy shape but, especially with Mitch McGovern set to join a long list of players who’ve left the club in recent years, they’ve now produced such an improbably high amount of smoke as to make one believe there must be at least some kind of fire.

McGovern is one of their more expendable players though and they’ll get good value from him from somewhere, so it’s hardly a crisis point.

So long as the right people are willing to take a good hard look at themselves over the offseason and ask some probing questions, I don’t see any reason why Adelaide can’t rise back to the status of premiership contender in 2019.

If that’s aided by the arrival of a Jack Lukosius or an Izak Rankine or a mature start from somewhere else, then bully.