It’s the final day of the NRL season, and while the teams who will play finals has been known for some time, the final order of teams can still flip around based on results today.
With the Sharks set to take on the Bulldogs and the Broncos hosting the Sea Eagles, there’s two teams both looking to better their standing against two sides with nothing but pride to play for as they finish their season.
First, let’s take a look at the ladder.
| Pos. | Team | Points | F/A | Position locked? |
| 1 | Sydney Roosters | 34 | 181 | Yes |
| 2 | Melbourne Storm | 34 | 173 | Yes |
| 3 | South Sydney Rabbitohs | 34 | 145 | Yes |
| 4 | Cronulla Sharks | 32 | 84 | Yes |
| 5 | Penrith Panthers | 32 | 56 | No |
| 6 | St George Illawarra Dragons | 32 | 47 | No |
| 7 | New Zealand Warriors | 32 | 25 | No |
| 8 | Brisbane Broncos | 30 | 24 | No |
The first thing that comes to mind is – this must be the closest top eight in history.
There is absolutely nothing in it, but both ends of the eight can move around today, no matter how unlikely it may seem. I’ve locked in the top four, but if the Bulldogs forget how to defend, it’s not set.
Likewise, if the Sharks forget how to play footy and the Bulldogs do to the Sharks what they did last week to the Dragons, they could fall away down the table.
Venue: ANZ Stadium, Homebush
TV: Live, Fox League
Sharks best possible finish: 1st (realistically, 4th)
Sharks worst possible finish: 8th
Want to hear something absolutely crazy? The Sharks could still finish first and they could still finish eighth.
Breathe easy though Sharks fan – it’s going to take a miracle for your side to move out of fourth spot.
To move up the ladder, they are going to need to absolutely belt the Bulldogs – which, on a Sunday arvo at Homebush isn’t completely out of the question.
Canterbury were good last week, but some might feel there has to be a little bit of a let-down.
To jump into third place ahead of the South Sydney Rabbitohs, they would need to beat the Bulldogs by a staggering 62 points. There have been big wins in history though, so let’s not rule it all the way out, but the Sharks are probably not going higher than fourth.
While we are talking about crazy finishing possibilities, make that points difference 90 or 98 points to get over the Rabbitohs or Roosters.
What is far more likely to happen, should the Sharks have a bad at the office, is that they drop out of the top four.
A loss by 29 points would send them behind the Penrith Panthers on the ladder. Make it 38 for the Dragons.
Paul Gallen and the Sharks. (AAP Image/Michael Chambers)
Venue: Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
TV: Live, Fox League and Nine
Broncos best finish: 4th
Broncos worst finish: 8th
The Broncos come into the day sitting with the final place in the eight, but by the end of it, could fight their way into a second chance.
The Manly Sea Eagles are a side who, for all money look like they have clocked off for a season. With this potentially being veteran Sam Thaiday’s last game for the Broncos on a Sunday afternoon at Suncorp, Wayne Bennett’s side could run up a cricket score.
Any sort of win will allow them to jump the Warriors into seventh, while a 23-point win could see them hurtle the Dragons, while it’ll take a 32-point gap to get ahead of the Panthers in fifth.
Regardless, 24 points is the mark they will be looking at for a home final.
Where it gets interesting is if Cronulla lose to the resurgent Bulldogs. If that happens and the Broncos win, there will need to be a 60-point for and against turnaround between the two sides for the Broncos to launch up the table into fourth spot.
It seems incredibly unlikely, but if Cronulla lose by 20, then the Broncos would need to belt Manly by 41 points to make the switch happen – and that’s not out of the question.
Obviously, any loss leaves them stranded in eighth and facing a trip to Sydney to play the Panthers next weekend.
Taking that the Sharks won’t win by 62 points and jump ahead of Souths, here are how the finals could play out.
Situation 1: Sharks win and Broncos win by 1-22 points
Qualifying final 1: Sydney Roosters (1) vs Cronulla Sharks (4)
Qualifying final 2: Melbourne Storm (2) vs South Sydney Rabbitohs (3)
Elimination final 1: Penrith Panthers (5) vs New Zealand Warriors (8)
Elimination final 2: St George Illawarra Dragons (6) vs Brisbane Broncos (7)
Situation 2: Sharks win and Broncos lose
Qualifying final 1: Sydney Roosters (1) vs Cronulla Sharks (4)
Qualifying final 2: Melbourne Storm (2) vs South Sydney Rabbitohs (3)
Elimination final 1: Penrith Panthers (5) vs Brisbane Broncos (8)
Elimination final 2: St George Illawarra Dragons (6) vs New Zealand Warriors (7)
Situation 3: Sharks win and Broncos win by 23-31 points
Qualifying final 1: Sydney Roosters (1) vs Cronulla Sharks (4)
Qualifying final 2: Melbourne Storm (2) vs South Sydney Rabbitohs (3)
Elimination final 1: Penrith Panthers (5) vs New Zealand Warriors (8)
Elimination final 2: Brisbane Broncos (6) vs St George Illawarra Dragons (7)
Situation 4: Sharks win and Broncos win by 32 or more points
Qualifying final 1: Sydney Roosters (1) vs Cronulla Sharks (4)
Qualifying final 2: Melbourne Storm (2) vs South Sydney Rabbitohs (3)
Elimination final 1: Brisbane Broncos (5) vs New Zealand Warriors (8)
Elimination final 2: Penrith Panthers (6) vs St George Illawarra Dragons 9
(7)
Situation 5: Sharks lose by at least 28-37 points and Broncos win by less than 23 points
Qualifying final 1: Sydney Roosters (1) vs Penrith Panthers (4)
Qualifying final 2: Melbourne Storm (2) vs South Sydney Rabbitohs (3)
Elimination final 1: Cronulla Sharks (5) vs New Zealand Warriors (8)
Elimination final 2: St George Illawarra (6) vs Brisbane Broncos (7)
Situation 6: Sharks lose by 28-37 points and Broncos win by 23-31 points
Qualifying final 1: Sydney Roosters (1) vs Penrith Panthers (4)
Qualifying final 2: Melbourne Storm (2) vs South Sydney Rabbitohs (3)
Elimination final 1: Cronulla Sharks (5) vs New Zealand Warriors (8)
Elimination final 2: Brisbane Broncos (6) vs St George Illawarra Dragons (7)
Situation 7: Sharks lose by 28-37 points and Broncos win by at least 32 points
Qualifying final 1: Sydney Roosters (1) vs Brisbane Broncos (4)
Qualifying final 2: Melbourne Storm (2) vs South Sydney Rabbitohs (3)
Elimination final 1: Penrith Panthers (5) vs New Zealand Warriors (8)
Elimination final 2: Cronulla Sharks (6) vs St George Illawarra Dragons (7)
Situation 8: Sharks lose by at least 38 points and Broncos win by at least 32 points
Qualifying final 1: Sydney Roosters (1) vs Brisbane Broncos (4)
Qualifying final 2: Melbourne Storm (2) vs South Sydney Rabbitohs (3)
Elimination final 1: Penrith Panthers (5) vs New Zealand Warriors (8)
Elimination final 2: St George Illawarra Dragons (6) vs Cronulla Sharks (7)
Obviously, a lot needs to happen for the ladder to change, but it could. Miracles do exist at times and this competition has been crazy enough for just about anything to happen.
Enjoy the final day of the season.
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