The Roar
The Roar

AFL
Advertisement

2018 AFL finals series: Week 1 preview

Roar Guru
3rd September, 2018
Advertisement
Autoplay in... 6 (Cancel)
Up Next No more videos! Playlist is empty -
Replay
Cancel
Next
Roar Guru
3rd September, 2018
36
2694 Reads

After a week’s break, the 2018 AFL finals series is finally upon us, with seven teams out to ensure Richmond do not repeat as premiers in 2018.

The Tigers are the team to beat in 2018, having topped the ladder with eighteen wins and four losses, and having not lost at the MCG since Round 13 last season.

Among their closest challengers for the flag are the West Coast Eagles, Collingwood and Hawthorn, neither of whom made the top four last season. First on the Tigers’ hit list are the Hawks, who achieved a hat-trick of flags earlier this decade.

They will kick off the finals series this Thursday night, before Melbourne and the Geelong Cats go to war for the third time this season in the first elimination final the following evening.

Focus then turns to the SCG on Saturday afternoon when the two Sydney clubs, the Sydney Swans and GWS Giants, face off in a finals clash for the second time in three years, but with the stakes even higher as one club’s season will be over by sunset.

Following that, we then head west as Optus Stadium hosts its first ever finals clash, when the West Coast Eagles host Collingwood in what should be another true heavyweight clash.

Here is your full guide to the first week of the 2018 AFL finals series.

Richmond vs Hawthorn
Thursday, September 6
7:20pm
Melbourne Cricket Ground

Advertisement

This season
Round 3: Richmond 15.12 (102) defeated Hawthorn 13.11 (89) at the MCG.

Last meeting in a final: Never

The AFL finals kick off this Thursday night with Richmond hosting Hawthorn in the first ever final to be held in the timeslot in Melbourne.

After taking out last year’s flag in breathtaking fashion, the Tigers have continued to go from strength to strength, compiling an 18-4 record and remaining undefeated at home all season.

Their last match before the pre-finals bye saw them survive a huge scare from the Western Bulldogs at the MCG, only hanging on by the skin of their teeth to win by three points and thus remain undefeated at the home of football.

It was the closest any team had come to toppling the Tigers in Victoria, with their four losses all occurring interstate (twice in Adelaide and once each in Perth and Sydney).

But if there’s one team that can seriously challenge the reigning premiers, it’s the team that has been the most consistent over the past decade, reaching five Grand Finals between 2008 and 2015 inclusive, winning four of them.

Advertisement

That team is Hawthorn, which after finishing 12th last season has rebuilt in record time, claiming a double chance after finishing the regular season with six straight victories, the latest of them a nine-point win over the Sydney Swans at the SCG.

Their revival was led in part by Tom Mitchell, who has continued to break record after record in his second season at Hawthorn after crossing from the Swans at the end of the 2016 season.

The 25-year-old started the season as one of the favourites to win the Brownlow Medal, his odds slowly shortening after he racked up a record 54 disposals against Collingwood at the MCG in round one.

He and reigning Brownlow Medallist Dustin Martin will be two of the players to watch, and their efforts will go a long way towards the final outcome this Thursday night.

For the winner: A week off and a home preliminary final at the MCG.

For the loser: Face the loser of the Melbourne vs Geelong Cats elimination final at the MCG next Friday night.

Prediction: Richmond by 18 points.

Advertisement
Jack Riewoldt

Jack Riewoldt of the Tigers (Photo by Daniel Carson/AFL Media/Getty Images)

Melbourne vs Geelong Cats
Friday, September 7
7:50pm
Melbourne Cricket Ground

This season
Round 1: Geelong Cats 14.13 (97) defeated Melbourne 13.16 (94) at the MCG.
Round 18: Geelong Cats 16.4 (100) defeated Melbourne 14.14 (98) at GMHBA Stadium.

Last meeting in a final: Geelong Cats 18.8 (116) defeated Melbourne 9.7 (61) at the MCG, second elimination final, 2005.

Dees fans, rejoice, because after twelve painfully long years, during which there were countless thrashings, the sacking of two coaches, the death of a much-loved president and just about every possible crisis that could happen, your team is back in September for the first time since 2006.

After having lost to the Sydney Swans by nine points at home in round 21, the Dees appeared doomed for a repeat of last year’s heartbreak when it missed out on a finals berth by the narrowest of margins.

However, keen not to repeat the same mistake this time around, they headed west to Perth on a mission, and returned home to Melbourne not only 17-point victors over the West Coast Eagles, but also with their place confirmed in September for the first time since 2006.

Advertisement

They then thrashed the GWS Giants by 45 points at the MCG last week in the perfect pre-finals warm-up, and their ominous form in the past month will have the Geelong Cats on high alert this Friday night.

It was the Cats which handed Melbourne a 186-point humiliation at Kardinia Park during the lowest point of the Dees’ finals exile, but, in a clear sign of how far the Dees have come since, both matches this season went down to the wire, with the Cats victorious on both occasions.

After Max Gawn missed an easy set shot in the final few seconds in their round one encounter at the MCG, Zach Tuohy broke red and blue hearts when he showed Gawn how it was done, converting a set shot after the final siren to give his side a two-point win in round eighteen.

As for the Cats, there were high expectations for the club entering season 2018, having successfully lured Gary Ablett Jr. back home after his seven-year stint at the Gold Coast Suns.

He, captain Joel Selwood and 2016 Brownlow Medallist Patrick Dangerfield were to feature in a midfield that the rest of the competition would fear.

However, while the Cats could only muster an eighth-place finish, they will also enter another finals series in hot form, having won their past two matches by a combined margin of 235 points.

In round 22 against Fremantle, the Cats trailed at quarter-time, but didn’t concede another goal for the rest of the match as they handed the Dockers their worst ever defeat, while the following week against the Gold Coast Suns, Dangerfield starred as the Cats booked their eleventh finals berth in twelve seasons.

Advertisement

It will now remain to be seen how both the Dees and Cats attack this elimination final – and it will be interesting to see how Simon Goodwin’s men handle the big stage, with current co-captain Nathan Jones the only survivor from their most recent finals match – a loss to Fremantle at Subiaco Oval in what was just his eighth AFL game.

For the winner: A shot at either Richmond or Hawthorn in a semi-final at the MCG next Friday night.
For the loser: Season over, and a long summer of soul searching.

Prediction: Geelong Cats by 12 points.

Daniel Menzel of the Geelong Cats celebrates scoring a goal.

Daniel Menzel celebrates a goal. (Photo by Adam Trafford/AFL Media/Getty Images)

Sydney Swans vs GWS Giants
Saturday, September 8
4:20pm
Sydney Cricket Ground

This season
Round 3: Sydney Swans 16.7 (103) defeated GWS Giants 12.15 (87) at the SCG.
Round 22: Sydney Swans 11.14 (80) defeated GWS Giants 8.12 (60) at Spotless Stadium.

Last meeting in a final: GWS Giants 12.19 (91) defeated Sydney Swans 7.13 (55) at ANZ Stadium, first qualifying final, 2016.

Advertisement

When the GWS Giants entered the competition in 2012, many feared that it would take a long time before the Sydney Derby would develop into a true and competitive rivalry.

True to form, the Giants finished their first season in last place, while the Swans went on to win just their second premiership in 80 years.

The already-growing gap between the two sides got even bigger when the Swans romped to an embarrassingly easy 129 point win in the first Derby to be played at their spiritual home, the SCG, the venue for this Saturday night’s knock-out final.

But since then, the Giants have started to peg back some respect, most notably winning the first Derby at Spotless Stadium in 2014 before recording an even bigger win – upsetting their bigger brothers by 36 points in a qualifying final at ANZ Stadium in 2016.

Two years on, the Swans and Giants will gear up for their second finals Derby in three years, but unlike two years ago, there is no second chance, with one of these sides set to bow out of the premiership race by sunset.

After a rough patch following their round fourteen bye, including being humiliated by the Gold Coast Suns at home, the Swans rebounded to win three consecutive matches before going down to Hawthorn by nine points in their last outing before the pre-finals bye.

Key players Lance Franklin and Luke Parker were sorely missed in the loss to the Hawks, but both appear certain to return against the Giants, who limp into September on the back of consecutive losses which has seen them drop from third to seventh.

Advertisement

The first of those two losses was just over a fortnight ago, when the Giants led by 21 points only for the Swans to run them down in the final quarter.

This preceded their 45-point loss to Melbourne at the MCG in their second of two appearances at the ground this season.

Jeremy Cameron has also struggled since returning from his five-match suspension incurred for knocking out Brisbane Lions fullback Harris Andrews ten weeks ago, and the Giants will need him to lift if they are to stay alive in the premiership race.

For the winner: Bragging rights in Sydney, and a showdown against the loser of the West Coast vs Collingwood match next Saturday night.
For the loser: Season over, and a long summer of soul searching.

Prediction: Sydney Swans by 24 points.

Dan Hannebery

Dan Hannebery of the Swans (Photo by Cameron Spencer/AFL Media/Getty Images)

West Coast Eagles vs Collingwood
Saturday, September 8
6:10pm AWST
Optus Stadium

Advertisement

This season
Round 17: West Coast Eagles 15.12 (102) defeated Collingwood 9.13 (67) at the MCG.

Last meeting in a final: Collingwood 10.13 (73) defeated West Coast Eagles 9.6 (60) at the MCG, first semi-final, 2012.

The final match of the round sees Collingwood make the return trip to Perth to face the West Coast Eagles in the first AFL final to be played at Optus Stadium.

Twelve months ago, the Pies made the huge call to re-sign Nathan Buckley as coach, despite the club having regressed in the years following their 2010 premiership win, including missing the finals for a fourth year in a row.

But his retention has been vindicated, with the Pies finishing third on the ladder and thus clinching their first finals berth since 2013.

In their last match before the pre-finals bye, Nathan Buckley’s men overcame a Fremantle side playing for pride to win by nine points, their “reward” being another trip to Perth to face an Eagles side which has more than defied expectations in 2018.

Tipped by many to finish towards the bottom of the ladder this year, Adam Simpson’s men defied the critics to finish second on the ladder and give themselves a good shot at ending their twelve-year premiership drought.

Advertisement

Along the way, they handed Richmond their heaviest defeat of the year, winning by 47 points at Optus Stadium in round nine.

But their path to September proved to be rocky, though, with Nic Naitanui suffering yet another serious ACL injury in round seventeen and Andrew Gaff copping a season-ending eight-match suspension from the judiciary for his king hit on Fremantle’s Andrew Brayshaw in round 20.

Andrew Gaff

Andrew Gaff of the Eagles (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Media/Getty Images)

Nonetheless, with two home finals before a potential MCG date against Richmond on September 29, the westerners will be cherishing every moment they can in September, and a fourth flag would well and truly embarrass the experts who thought they would take out the wooden spoon at the start of the year.

For the winner: A week off and direct passage to the preliminary final.
For the loser: A clash with the winner of the Sydney Derby final next Saturday night.

Prediction: West Coast Eagles by 22 points.

close