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Port Adelaide are the AFL's plastic surgery addict

Expert
4th September, 2018
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Travis Boak of the Power looks dejected after a loss during the 2018 AFL round 22 match between the Collingwood Magpies and the Port Adelaide Power at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on August 18, 2018 in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Media/Getty Images)
Expert
4th September, 2018
26
5277 Reads

In today’s list breakdown we look at a team who were widely tipped to take the next step towards premiership contention in 2018, but instead went backwards out of Septemebr.

The recruiting of Jack Watts, Steven Motlop and Tom Rockliff was ultimately another chapter in a highly active list management strategy that has promised much and delivered little to nothing.

List breakdown

It’s not hard to see why at the start of the year there were plenty of pundits tipping Port Adelaide to finish top four or even contend for the flag.

They entered the year as the fifth oldest list in the competition, and the second-most experienced, good signs that a club has a mature talent profile.

Their decisions at the selection table reflected this also.

Where the league average of games being put into players 23-and-under was 38 per cent, they invested just a quarter of all matches into players in this age group – the least of any side outside the top eight.

This group of players collected just 38 AFLCA votes, which is barely half of the leaguewide average of 71.

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In this group Sam Powell-Pepper is the potential star, with Darcy Byrnes-Jones, Dougal Howard and Riley Bonner the only other players to appear regularly in the side.

Sam Powell-Pepper

(Photo by Paul Kane/Getty Images)

Todd Marshall shows a lot of promise, and the Power will hope to get more in years to come out of the likes of Karl Amon, Kane Farell, Aidyn Johnson, Joe Atley, Willem Drew and Sam Hayes.

Instead of youth they invested an above average amount of games into both their prime-age and veteran groups, and saw inflated returns from both as a result.

They put 57 per cent of games into players 24-29 for 199 AFLCA votes, and 18 per cent of games into players 30 and over for 79 votes – above the average AFL return for both groups.

The prime-age group features the vast majority of Port Adelaide’s regulars: Ollie Wines, Tom Clurey, Chad Wingard, Jack Hombsch, Jared Polec, Sam Gray, Jasper Pittard, Jack Watts, Steven Motlop, Tom Jonas, Charlie Dixon, Hamish Hartlett, Matthew Broadbent, Brad Ebert, Tom Rockliff.

However the veterans are arguably where Port Adelaide’s most important talent lies – in particular Robbie Gray, Paddy Ryder and Justin Westhoff, and to a lesser degree Travis Boak.

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Port’s players aged 27-30 shows an effort to bolster what was a weakish group with talent from other clubs.

They have 12 players in this age group, and seven of those twelve – Watts, Motlop, Dixon, Ebert, Rockliff, Ryder and Lindsay Thomas – were recruited from other clubs.

What does their list need? In a positional sense, not a whole lot – for any given position on the ground you’re probably able to name a player of reasonable quality who fills it.

Probably the most glaring absence is someone who can provide a chop out for Paddy Ryder in the ruck, but has the ability to have an impact forward as well – so the fact they’re going after Scott Lycett makes a lot of sense.

What Port are lacking rather than talent of a particular position though is talent of a young age. How many players 29 and under would you say on their list are undisputably A-grade talent?

Chad Wingard and Ollie Wines are the obvious two, and you could also put in Sam Powell-Pepper, maybe Todd Marshall, and perhaps make a case for Tom Jonas.

Ollie Wines Port Adelaide Power AFL 2017

(Photo by Daniel Kalisz/Getty Images)

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It’s a sparse group and the day will soon come when Port can’t rely on Robbie Gray and Paddy Ryder to win matches for them so they need to invest in elite youth of pretty much any position as soon as possible.

Underperformed or overperformed?

Already boasting an older and more experienced list, Port doubled down on these characteristics at the selection table.

They fielded a side just shy of 26 years old, and the third oldest team in the league on average behind only Hawthorn and Adelaide.

Their sides had an average of 2480 games of experience on average, 445 games more than the league average, making them the most experienced in the league.

Despite being at the top or near to both experience and age, Port finished tenth with a 12-10 record and a percentage of 107.6.

Verdict: Probably the biggest underperformers of the year, in a two-horse race with their crosstown rivals the Crows.

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Contracts

Jared Polec is Port’s biggest name out of contract this year, but it looks like it’s too late for there to be any chance of re-signing him. We’ll talk more about this later.

That being the case, Justin Westhoff is the man to get an extension done for – presumably just a one-year deal that will take him through 2019.

Port have a lot of players coming out of contract in 2019 and there’s four in particular to work on signing sooner, rather than later: Robbie Gray, Chad Wingard, Riley Bonner and Tom Jonas.

None of them appears to be an especially likely flight risk.

2022
Ollie Wines

2021
Hamish Hartlett
Sam Hayes
Steven Motlop
Tom Rockliff

2020
Darcy Bryne-Jones
Charlie Dixon
Willem Drew
Brad Ebert
Todd Marshall
Jasper Pittard
Sam Powell-Pepper

2019
Karl Amon
Dom Barry
Travis Boak
Riley Bonner
Matthew Broadbent
Tom Clurey
Kane Farell
Billy Frampton
Joel Garner
Robbie Gray
Sam Gray
Jack Hombsch
Dan Houston
Dougal Howard
Aidyn Johnson
Tom Jonas
Jake Patmore
Paddy Ryder
Jack Watts
Chad Wingard

Out of contract
Joe Atley
Cameron Hewett
Emmanuel Irra
Peter Ladhams
Jarrod Lienert
Trent McKenzie
Jake Neade
Jared Polec
Will Snelling
Lindsay Thomas
Jimmy Toumpas
Jack Trengove
Justin Westhoff

Free agency

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Port’s only free agent this year is Justin Westhoff, who it’s hard to see doing anything other than committing to a one-year deal with the Power.

That leaves Port free to pursue the free agency market, and they’re doing exactly that – it was reported earlier this week that they’ve just about landed Scott Lycett.

Scott Lycett West Coast Eagles AFL 2017

(Photo by Paul Kane/Getty Images)

Lycett was reportedly being pursued hard by both St Kilda and Port Adelaide, but the Saints have been informed that he won’t be coming to them.

That leaves Port Adelaide, who he’s expected to join on a four-year deal worth $2.4 million.

I’m a fan of the move – in fact, in this very series last year I suggested that Lycett would be one Port should target as a free agent this year.

This year they struggled to use their big men effectively because Charlie Dixon, their forward-line lynchpin, was often called up for ruck duty when Paddy Ryder either was injured or needed a breather, leaving Port’s forward line disorganised and ineffective.

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Bringing in a player like Lycett who can do a reasonable job as a forward and then come into the ruck to relieve Ryder when needed goes a long way towards solving this problem.

Trade period

When it comes to Port’s trade period it looks likely to be a case of players going out rather than coming in, the headline act being the imminent departure of Jared Polec.

Port Adelaide have all but conceded that Polec is going to leave the club and up until last night it seemed locked and loaded that Polec’s new home would be North Melbourne.

However, on Monday it was reported that there’s been a bit of a twist in the table, at St Kilda have come to the table with a superior financial offer.

Overall the reports suggest that the Saints are offering $4 million over five years, while North are offering $3.5 million over the same length of time.

Both offers are much bigger than what Port have offered to Polec – reportedly about $1.5 million over three years.

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Jared Polec

(Photo by Michael Dodge/Getty Images)

Most of the trade speculation been based around the notion that Polec will go to North Melbourne, and they’ve asked for North’s first draft pick – currently pick 10 – to be part of the deal.

While most impartial observers would probably think this was too high a price to pay for Polec, it might just be something North Melbourne is willing to do.

They’ve got an academy prospect in Tarryn Thomas coming through this year who is a chance to be bidded on before then.

Moving on pick 10 would mean that rather than paying for Thomas with that selection, they could pay for him with later picks.

They’d overpay for Polec and underpay for Thomas, so while the Polec deal would seem like overpaying, they would probably make a profit overall – and Port would have to be pretty happy.

However, recent developments suggest his scenario might no longer be on the cards from a North Melbourne perspective.

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There’s been some suggestion lately that Thomas has fallen down the pecking order at the draft is unlikely to attract a bid that early.

And, even if he did, North could still get him for a bargain price if they made clever use of the league’s new live trading loophole.

This would make a trade with North less clear – the Roos could look instead to offer either their 2018 or 2019 second-round pick, which Port are likely to turn their noses up.

If Polec is willing to go to St Kilda instead then there’s a number of potential scenarios to get the deal done.

The Power will no doubt be licking their lips and looking at St Kilda’s pick 3, likely to become pick 4 after free agency compensation.

Polec certainly isn’t worth that on his own, but perhaps Port could offer the Saints a package of Polec and pick 9 for the selection.

That would give Port a strong chance of bringing home South Australian star Izak Rankine, or one of the other elite prospects available at that stage of the draft.

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Personally I don’t believe the Saints should be willing to move that pick on – they do appear to be considering it though, but more likely as part of a deal for Sydney’s Dan Hannebery.

The mooted deal there would see the Saints gain Sydney’s first-round pick along with Hannebery, and perhaps this would be a more realistic target in a swap for Polec.

Alternatively, Port Adelaide could look to pry a player-for-player swap away from the Saints – South Australian Luke Dunstan might be interested.

All we can really say for certain is that there’s a lot left to play out here, and what either North or the Saints are willing to pay for Polec is going to depend on what happens with their other interests this year.

However the fact that two clubs are so strongly interested is good news for Port, as it’s going to help them get the best return possible.

Other players potentially out the door this year at Port Adelaide include Joe Atley, Jasper Pittard and Jack Hombsch.

Atley has been linked to North Melbourne where his brother Shaun plays. I suspect that this is largely an attempt by North to get the maximum possible return for paying a high pick to the Power, and he probably comes as a sweetener in the Polec deal if he does.

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Pittard and Hombsch on the other hand have been told by Port Adelaide that they will be traded if a new home can be found for them, despite Hombsch being contracted for 2019 and Pittard until the end of 2020.

Both have had so-so seasons and struggled to stay in the best 22, and with Hamish Hartlett and Matthew Broadbent looking to come back into the team next year seem likely to be depth at best for the Power, and probably highly-paid depth.

So far it’s not clear if there’s any interest in either from rival clubs – anything Port does get for them is likely to be a token pick late in the draft at best.

The other name that has been mentioned as a possible trade out of Port Adelaide is of course Chad Wingard.

Chad Wingard

(Photo by James Elsby/AFL Media/Getty Images)

This was originally floated by David King, that keen analytical mind well known for his other classic hits like ‘St Kilda should trade Jack Billings’ and ‘Melbourne should trade Jesse Hogan’.

I don’t know where King gets the idea that the path to success is for clubs to trade their most crucial young talents, but suffice to say this would be literally the worst possible move Port Adelaide could make.

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Draft

As it stands Port has a pretty good hand in the draft thanks to the poor performance of both themselves and St Kilda, whose second-round pick belongs to them.

They’ve currently got three picks inside the top thirty – 9, 21 and 27, and you’d expect they will gain at least one more along the way in a trade for Jared Polec.

This sets them up well to make a strong investment in the draft, which is exactly what they should be doing this year.

There’s plenty of South Australian talent on offer but Port more than the Crows have usually shown an ability to keep interstate draftees at the club, so shouldn’t limit themselves here.

Pick 9, and if they get it pick 10, are a bit outside the genuinely top-tier range of the draft but still a good place to pick up some talent.

South Australians Conor Rozee and Jackson Hately are both around this area and would be good acquisitions, while Jye Caldwell, Curtis Taylor and Ian Hill would also be in the mix.

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Bailey Williams could be a good long-term ruck-forward option to take with one of their selections in the second-round, while South Australian captain Luke Valente will also appeal.

What I said last year

Let’s go into a little more detail than usual here because I was critical when most were positive about Port Adelaide last year and, feeling a bit vindicated by their 2019 results, I’d like to rub some noses in it.

From last year’s list breakdown:

“While their form was at times impresssive, that can’t be allowed to cover up the cracks of a list management situation that still appears only a few steps away from being truly dire.

“Overpaying at the trade table for the likes of Jared Polec, Paddy Ryder and Charlie Dixon robbed them of the chance to bring in elite youth three years in a row.

“That’s the kind of move that if it brings you success you can forgive, but all it has brought them is one finals campaign and no finals wins in three years.

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“Locking away the likes of Hamish Hartlett and Matthew Lobbe on longterm contracts has tied up so much of their salary cap that they haven’t been able to make further improvements to their list.

“Handing an underperforming Jasper Pittard a three-year extension this year doesn’t convince me that they have learned their lesson from this.”

From last year’s trade period report card:

“Acquiring Rockliff and Motlop as the only two free agents of note left on the list at the end of the year and Watts, a player rejected by his own club, feels more like taking what you can get than targetting what you need.

“They haven’t sold the farm to bring in any of these players but they’ve tied up something in the area of $1.5 million to $2 million of salary cap in them.

“That comes at an opportunity cost and if these players don’t lift Port to the next level in 2018 they may find themselves regretting being too eager instead of waiting for the right time to strike and make a big signing.”

I gave Port Adelaide a D in the report card and it was unpopular, but in retrospect I almost feel like I was not harsh enough.

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It prompted what is without a doubt my favourite ever response to one of my articles, this meme someone made of me:

Outlook

Yesterday I looked at the Essendon Bombers and warned them that while a Dylan Shiel deal has its appeal, they should be wary of making what is a classic AFL list management mistake.

I’m sure it would’ve drawn plenty of scepticism from some corners that landing a big talent like Shiel can possibly be a bad thing, but if Essendon fans wanted to see how quickly that path can lead to mediocrity they need look no further than the team under the microscope today.

When Ken Hinkely arrived at Port Adelaide the team enjoyed a classic new coach bounce and that, combined with the early promise of elite young draft talents Chad Wingard and Ollie Wines, convinced the club they were poised to strike at a flag.

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They moment they felt they were on a good wicket they went hard at bringing in mature players in pursuit of immediate success – but they botched it.

They first brought in Jared Polec and were happy to do so at a price that still allowed them to draft Jarman Impey; fast forward a few years later and both are at different clubs (or will be soon).

They brought in Paddy Ryder with the idea of him solving their ruck-forward dilemma, but instead he cost them an arm and a leg and pushed Matthew Lobbe out of the club.

Ryder has been a good player for them certainly, but here we are years later and they’re still facing the same ruck-forward problem. He was an upgrade on Lobbe, but a far too expensive one.

They brought in Charlie Dixon and he made positional sense as they needed a key forward, but probably hasn’t live up to expectation so far.

For the cost of pick 10 that year and their second-round pick in the next, a measly 26 goals this year simply hasn’t delivered on their investment.

Charlie Dixon Port Adelaide Power AFL 2017

(Photo by Daniel Kalisz/Getty Images)

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Jimmy Toumpas? Don’t make me laugh. And Tom Rockliff, Steven Motlop and Jack Watts, despite arriving with much fanfare, have contributed little to a 2018 campaign that saw Port go backwards down the ladder.

These moves have seen Port Adelaide use up draft picks that could’ve been used on investing in youth to build a strong generation of talent around Wines and Wingard, and lock up salary cap space that could’ve been used to make more prudent free agency moves.

Look at the last four players they’ve taken with first-round picks: Wines, Wingard, Powell-Pepper and Marshall. All look like future stars, so why have Port preferred instead to spend these picks on mature players who so far haven’t contributed to any real success?

Essentially they’ve tried to pull off the Hawthorn strategy of bringing in a gun recruit every year, but that strategy is simply never going to work for a team outside Victoria.

It’s relatively difficult to convince players to move anywhere other than their home state at trade time, which radically reduces your options and leaves you compromising on talent.

As such Port’s non-South Australian recruits have largely been those they either had to significantly overpay for, or who weren’t good enough to be more actively pursued by other clubs, and it’s list made largely of talent that’s both mediocre and overpaid.

They had to slice up the depth on their playing list just year just so they could fit Rockliff, Motlop and Watts into the salary cap and now seem to be doing the same thing with Jasper Pittard and Jack Hombsch.

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On one hand Port claim they’ve banked a significant amount of salary cap this season, but their actions seem to indicate the exact opposite as they look to move on players taking up space and have failed to deliver Jared Polec a competitive contract offer.

What Port should’ve done instead after the early successes of Hinkley was double down on the potential of their most elite talents, Wines and Wingard, by continuing to invest in the draft and bring in quality players to strengthen that age group with an eye to when they would become the mature core of the team.

Instead their list management strategy has made the club look like a deranged and vain plastic surgery addict, obsessed with the idea that they can make themselves be what they want to be through radical surgery and rash spending, rather than patience and hard work.

It’s time for Port to focus on building a strong generation of young talent with Wines, Wingard, Powell-Pepper and Marshall as the key figures. Not doing so sooner has probably set them back a few years, but it’s still a viable strategy. If they wait much longer, it won’t be.

They’re in a good position to do so this year as they can take a strong hand to the draft with three picks already in the top 30 and likely another coming through the Polec trade – though it could be just as good to bring in someone in this age group like Luke Dunstan via that deal instead.

Free agency shouldn’t be their main focus right now, but I’ve got no objections to the decision to bring in Scott Lycett if it can be done without compromising their draft hand or blowing out their salary cap.

Will they go down this road though? Instead of preaching patience and hard work, club president David Koch has again publicly torn into the playing group this offseason and declared that every player is on the trade table.

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Time will tell whether those running the show at Alberton have the tenacity to make wise decisions, but the past few years don’t inspire a lot of faith.

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