The second of the top four finals match ups promises to be as much of a cracker as the Storm vs Rabbitohs.
After a two-year break the Roosters are back as minor premiers, their fourth go at it in the last six years.
Their last premiership – 2013 – was achieved from the minor premier position.
The Sharks have finished in the top four for only the fifth time in the NRL era. On all of those occasions they have made the preliminary final and, as we know, in 2016 they won the premiership.
In 2012 the NRL introduced the current finals format where the top four sides were guaranteed a double chance.
In four of those six seasons the side that finished top of the table has won the first versus fourth match up.
The exceptions? In 2015 when the Storm beat Roosters and 2014 when the Panthers beat the Roosters.
However, in 2013 the Roosters won the minor premiership, beat the Sea Eagles in the first vs fourth game and went on to win the big one – again against the Sea Eagles.
So history says that winning this game really does make a difference to both these sides.
Team Stats – average per game 2018
| Stat | Roosters | Sharks | Difference |
| Line breaks conceded | 3.2 (1st NRL) | 3.5 (2nd NRL) | 0.3 Sharks |
| Missed tackles | 21.8 (1st NRL) | 23.9 (5th NRL) | 2.1 Sharks |
| Tries conceded | 2.3 (1st NRL) | 2.9 (3rd NRL) | 0.6 Sharks |
| Errors | 11 (14th NRL) | 10.8 (11th NRL) | 0.2 Roosters |
| Meters conceded | 1393.3 | 1358.8 | 34.5 Roosters |
| Penalties conceded | 8.3 | 8.4 | 0.1 Sharks |
| Offloads conceded | 11.3 (16th NRL) | 10.7 (4th NRL) | 0.6 Roosters |
The Roosters have the tiniest of edges in these defensive stats. They are statistically the best defensive side in the NRL this season. But the Sharks are right behind them.
Also note how the Roosters are the very worst team in the NRL at allowing offloads. Clearly that hasn’t cost them dearly at all when considering their line breaks, tries and missed tackles conceded.
However, in this game they come up against the second most prolific offloader in the NRL: Andrew Fifita. And he’s mad.
Andrew Fifita of the Sharks. (AAP Image/Joe Castro)
The other thing to note here is that both side’s error rates are pretty bad yet it hasn’t really impacted on their success in season 2018.
If you aren’t conceding points, well how much do those bad stats really matter?
Player Stats
| Stat | Roosters | Sharks |
| Tackles made | J. Friend – 42.3 R. Matterson – 31.3 B. Cordner – 26.5 |
J. Bailey – 28 P. Gallen – 27.2 A. Fifita – 23.8 A. Woods – 23.4 M. Prior – 23.3 |
| Missed tackles | J. Friend – 2.2 V. Radley -2 L. Keary – 2 B. Cordner – 1.9 |
C. Townsend – 3.1 M. Moylan – 2.9 K. Capewell – 1.9 L. Lewis – 1.9 |
| Penalties conceded | L. Mitchell – 1 J. Friend – 0.8 J. Waerea- Hargreaves – 0.7 |
A. Fifita – 1.3 A. Woods – 1 L. Lewis – 0.9 |
| Errors | B. Ferguson -1.3 L. Keary – 1.3 J. Tedesco – 1.3 D. Tupou – 1.2 |
M. Moylan – 1.4 V. Holmes – 1 C. Townsend – 1 J. Dugan – 0.9 |
Look at Jake Friend’s workload. A few seasons ago every side had a primary tackler who averaged in the high 30s or in the 40s.
Now that’s getting rarer. Now there are only two players who average in the 40s – Friend and Elijah Taylor – and just 12 who average in the high 30s.
There has definitely been a change in strategy in the NRL. You only have to look at the Sharks stats to see it.
They don’t have a single tackler who averages even in the 30s. Instead they have seven regular players who average in the 20s for tackles per game.
This is taking it a step beyond where the Storm have gone with it. It certainly spreads the responsibility for holding the line.
There isn’t really a bad missed tackler in the Roosters line up. The Sharks halves can both miss a few though.
You can be almost assured that Latrell Mitchell, Andrew Fifita and Aaron Woods will all concede penalties in this game.
While there are a lot of error prone players on both teams, the majority of those errors are made attacking the line, and not as red zone errors.
Latrell Mitchell of the Roosters (Photo by Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images)
Team Stats – average per game 2017
| Stat | Roosters | Sharks | Difference |
| Line breaks | 4.7 (4th NRL) | 5 (2nd NRL) | 0.3 Sharks |
| Tackle breaks | 27.8 | 25.5 | 2.3 Roosters |
| Tries scored | 3.7 | 3.6 | 0.1 Roosters |
| Meters made | 1441 (2nd NRL) | 1411 (5th NRL) | 30 Roosters |
| Penalties received | 7.7 (14th NRL) | 8.4 | 0.7 Sharks |
| Offloads | 7.1 (14th NRL) | 11.5 (3rd NRL) | 4.4 Sharks |
Again, bugger all between the sides in attack. However, note that both sides rank highly for line breaks and metres gained but that doesn’t translate into prodigious tries scored or tackle breaks.
Also note that the Roosters have achieved the minor premiership while drawing very few penalties and barely offloading at all. That reflects on the importance of those two stats.
Player Stats
| Stat | Roosters | Sharks |
| Tackle breaks | J. Tedesco – 5.6 L. Mitchell – 4.4 D. Tupou – 3.2 B. Ferguson – 3.1 |
A. Fifita – 3.4 J. Dugan – 3.3 V. Holmes – 3.2 S. Katoa – 3 |
| Line breaks | B. Ferguson – 1 J. Tedesco – 0.9 L. Mitchell – 0.8 |
V. Holmes – 1.1 E. Lee – 0.8 S. Feki – 0.8 |
| Metres gained | B. Ferguson – 190 J. Tedesco – 179 D. Tupou – 150 B. Cordner – 111 |
V. Holmes – 139 P. Gallen – 132 A. Woods – 126 A. Fifita – 126 |
| Tries scored | B. Ferguson – 17 L. Mitchell – 15 J. Tedesco – 9 |
V. Holmes – 21 E. Lee – 11 S. Feki – 7 |
| Try assists | L. Keary – 19 J. Tedesco – 16 C. Cronk – 14 |
M. Moylan – 16 C. Townsend – 14 V. Holmes – 9 J. Segeyaro – 9 |
| Line break assists | L. Keary – 17 J. Tedesco – 14 C. Cronk – 10 |
M. Moylan – 20 W. Graham – 10 C. Townsend – 10 V. Holmes – 8 |
| Offloads | J. Tedesco – 1.1 L. Mitchell – 0.9 J. Waerea-Hargreaves – 0.7 R. Matterson – 0.7 |
A. Fifita – 2.9 A. Woods – 1.4 W. Graham – 1.2 J. Dugan – 1.2 |
Jimmy Tedesco loves to break a tackle. With an average of 5.6 a game, he leads the NRL for that stat. Unsurprisingly he features prominently in all the Roosters attacking statistics. If he gets off the leash the Sharks will be in serious trouble.
I’ve waxed lyrical about Latrell Mitchell a number of times this season already. If he cuts loose, and he very well may, good luck to Ricky Leutele trying to stop him. And then there is Blake Ferguson. He is back in career best form and that form is very, very good.
Those three weapons will be at the disposal of halves Cronk and Keary and so very dangerous.
For the Sharks there is no doubting the brilliance of Valentine Holmes. A tally of 21 tries is nothing to be sneezed at.
Valentine Holmes has been clutch for the Sharks lately. (AAP Image/Craig Golding)
However, after him you are really looking at the potential of the likes of Josh Dugan and Matt Moylan to perform to their full potential, something neither have done so far this season.
As pointed out above, the tackle breaks of Andrew Fifita may just be the most dangerous thing about the Sharks. Because who in the Roosters pack can match him?
James Tedesco
As stated above, the bloke is an attacking machine. If he cuts loose, and he may well, it could get ugly for the Sharks.
Latrell Mitchell
In season 2018 he has really controlled his temperament and it has yielded massive results.
He’ll be a star for years to come and he may well be the star of this finals series.
Luke Keary
It’s easy to forget the little number six is there, amongst all the star power in the Roosters backline. However, his 19 try assists from only 20 games tell you how much he directs the Roosters attack.
Cooper Cronk has come out and said that he fully expects to get the treatment from the Sharks defence. However, the Sharks should be planning the same treatment for Keary.
Andrew Fifita
I believe Andrew Fifita’s performance will decide this game. If he plays big minutes, makes big metres and tackle breaks then I reckon the Sharks will win.
If the Roosters manage to control his impact I think that the Sharks will lose. If I was Shane Flanagan I’d be telling him he wasn’t good enough just before he runs out to play. I’d goad hell out of the big unit.
Valentine Holmes
See above comment for James Tedesco, repeat for Holmes and the Sharks.
Matt Moylan
I don’t get this bloke. You can see he is dripping with talent. The question is: Will he use it to its full potential? The Roosters will be hoping that he doesn’t.
Matthew Moylan of the Sharks catches the ball. (Photo by Brett Hemmings/Getty Images)
The Roosters’ overall record
This will be the Roosters 2377th competition game. They’ve won 1254 of them (52.8 per cent)
In the NRL Era they have played 545 games and won 309 of them (56.7 per cent).
The Sharks overall record
This will be the Sharks 1348th competition game. They have won 647 of them (48 per cent)
In the NRL era the Sharks have played 529 games and won 263 of them (49.7 per cent)
Overall
This will be the 95th time these sides have played each other in the premiership.
The Roosters have won 60 of the games (63.8 per cent).
The last ten
The Sharks have won seven of the last ten matches between the sides. However, the Roosters have won the last two encounters. The latest being the Round 5 game at Shark Park with the Roosters winning 28-10.
At this venue
This will be the 24th game these two sides have played at Allianz Stadium. The Roosters have won 13, the Sharks 10. However, the Sharks have won the last three at the SFS, the last of which was in June 2016.
Finals:
Would you believe that this is only the second ever finals game between these sides?! The Roosters beat the Sharks 32-20 in the 2002 qualifying final, en route to the premiership.
The Roosters take on Wests Tigers. (AAP Image/Dean Lewins)
Form
By Round 11 of this season the Roosters were sitting in seventh position, having won six and lost five of their games.
They have only lost three of their remaining 13 games to storm home to the minor premiership.
They’ve played 11 games against the other finalists this season, winning five and losing six. Four of those six losses have come at home. They’ve played other top four sides four times for a two and two record.
The Sharks have won seven of their last ten games. Like the Roosters, they had an inauspicious start to the season, winning just two of their first six to be sitting in 13th place. They’ve only lost four games out of their remaining 18.
Just like the Roosters, the Sharks have played 11 games against the other finalists this season, winning five and losing six, and they’ve played other top four sides four times for a two and two record.
So the form of both sides coming into this game is pretty much identical.
Perhaps the main stat to take away here is that the SFS is by no means a fortress for the Roosters.
This combination has never run a match between these sides before.
Gerard Sutton has done one game between these two sides. In Round 17 2017 he controlled the Sharks 44-12 win over the Roosters in Gosford.
Sutton has controlled 31 Sharks games, with the boys from the shire winning 16 of them (51.6 per cent). The Roosters have won 56.2 per cent of the games of theirs that Sutton has controlled (18 out of 31).
Ben Cummins has officiated in five games between these sides. The Sharks have won three of them, the Roosters two. He ran the Roosters 28-10 victory at Shark Park back in round five this season.
Cummins has controlled 44 Roosters games in his career with the Roosters winning 23 of them (52,3 per cent).
Cummins has refereed 47 Sharks games during his career. The Sharks have won 28 of them (59.6 per cent)
Finals
Sutton has controlled four Roosters finals appearances with the Roosters winning just one of them (25 per cent) and that was the qualifying final win over the Sea Eagles in 2013 on their way to the premiership.
Bernard’s big brother Gerry has controlled two Sharks finals game: their 39-0 touch up in 2015 at the hands of the Cowboys, and their 2016 preliminary final win over the North Queenslanders in 2016.
Cummins has run two Sharks finals games, both in 2016. The first was the preliminary final with Gerry Sutton. The second was the Sharks maiden premiership the following week.
Cummins has officiated in six Roosters finals games. The Roosters have won four of them, including the 2013 Grand Final.
Statistically predicted score: Roosters 19.25 – Sharks 18.45
As the statistically predicted score suggests, this is a hard game to pick. The Roosters backline is clearly more dangerous than the Sharks, by the mob from the Shire have a much better pack for mine.
It’ll come down to individual performances I reckon. But whose? Tedesco? Holmes? Mitchell? Fifita? Keary? Moylan?
I’ve just got a gut feeling that it is going to be the Sharks in a close one with Fifita making the difference.
But I’m not putting much money on it.
Prediction: Sharks 1-12
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