For the second time in three seasons we’ve got an all-Sydney final.
Neither of these sides are what they were back in 2016, but the stakes are no less high for either of them. In such an even season, both would fancy themselves to get on a roll with a win here.
There are stars everywhere you look in this match-up: Lance Franklin, Isaac Heeney, Luke Parker and Josh Kennedy on one side; Josh Kelly, Stephen Coniglio, Toby Greene, Jeremy Cameron, Dylan Shiel and Callan Ward on the other.
Unlike their last finals encounter, this one sees one side with a meaningful home-ground advantage. Instead of trekking to the cavernous ANZ Stadium, the Swans get to play at the SCG where they’ve lost just once in six games against the Giants – to be fair, GWS have only been a proper footy side for four of them.
Much like last night’s elimination finallists, these are strong stoppage teams. Not so much in terms of raw numbers, although the Giants are ranked third for differential at +2.5 a game, but in terms of points scored, GWS are ranked third at 34.5 points a game and the Swans fourth at 33 points a game.
When it comes to stoppage scoring differential, the Giants are No.1 in the competition at +8 points a game – though that is heavily influenced by the 82-2 whooping they put on the Blues in round 20 – and the Swans are fourth at +5.7.
The Swans and the Giants will fight to the death (AAP Image/Dan Himbrechts)
The ins for each side are significant. Sydney’s Buddy Franklin is still in the best handful of players in the league and Luke Parker is himself a star.
The Giants call up two of their most important players in Zac Williams and Toby Greene, who will – if fit – have a major impact at their respective ends of the ground. Matt De Boer also comes in to bang bodies with the Swans and Brett Deledio returns.
We’ve seen only glimpses of Deledio’s – perhaps former – greatness since he joined the Giants. He’s managed just 16 games in his two seasons. It’s been a bit sad, really.
GWS have brought in a lot of talent but with at least three of them there come a lot of questions. No point holding back at this point of the year, though it does seems as likely that it’ll pay off as it does a couple of those Giants will finish the game on the bench with a bag of ice.
It’s been that kind of season for GWS. Brief glimpses of their power frequently punctuated by injuries to key personnel.
The Swans’ season, too, has been hard to get a handle on. They’ve got an exceptional record against the top eight teams (8-3) and yet have never really looked like a contender.
They conceded 76 points a game on the season, which is very respectable. In 11 games against fellow finalists it was slightly better, at 75 points a game.
Doubt the infrastructure at your peril.
It was only a few weeks ago that these teams last met, with Sydney running over the top of GWS thanks to a six-goal-to-one final term. Phil hurt his hip and Franklin had his way with the likes of Nick Haynes and Jeremy Finlayson, finishing with five goals.
At the other end of the ground, Cameron could manage only one goal for the match, just the second time for the season he’d fail to kick multiple goals (he’d make it three the following week against Melbourne).
This game will be determined by who can play on their terms. If the Giants can get their wave-running game going, they should win.
The Swans will want to slow it down, get numbers to the contest and try to hit into an open forward line.
Callum Mills (AAP Image/Dean Lewins)
Sydney were 16th for inside-50s against this season, ahead of only Carlton and the Gold Coast. In true Swans fashion, however, they were No.1 in the league for goals conceded per inside-50, giving up a goal on fractionally less than 19 percent of entries.
With Heath Grundy, Dane Rampe, Jarryd McVeigh and Jake Lloyd in defence, you know they won’t panic.
The profile of these sides is remarkably similar. The Swans have an average age of 25 years and seven months, average games played of 120, seven players with fewer than 50 games experience and 10 with 100 games under their belt.
For GWS, it’s an average age of 25 years and one month, 101 games, six under 50 games and a dozen with more than 100 games.
Just about everything points to an even contest, but I can’t shake the feeling GWS have a bigger part to play in this finals series.
The Giants by two goals.
That’s my elimination final forecast. What’s yours?
Things heating up in Canberra!
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