In what shapes as the most unpredictable game of the first week, the Penrith Panthers and New Zealand Warriors will clash in the first elimination game to leave seven contenders for the premiership.

While the Panthers have been shifted to Homebush for this clash under the NRL’s stadium policy, it’s not going to make a whole heap of difference where it’s played.

This game could go either way, and to say we could be in for an exciting contest is an understatement.

While the sides have split their games this year, with the Panthers most notably being thrashed by the Warriors just a fortnight ago in Auckland, that will be all thrown out the window with seasons on the line.

If you cast the mind all the way back to the first two months of the season, it looked like we had a different Warriors outfit on our hands. A fit, consistent one who were battering teams in the forwards and not giving an inch.

Since then, it’s gone all a bit haywire, with inconsistency creeping in. On their day, they can beat anyone. When they aren’t on though, they look like wooden spooners.

They were a bit all over the place last week as well, escaping with a four-point victory over the Raiders. They will be frustrated in not running up a score though and making things interesting for a home final, where they would have gone in as undisputed favourites.

On the other side of the coin, Penrith have also gone right off the boil heading into the finals.

While they finished fifth, Cameron Ciraldo’s men will feel it’s a case of ‘opportunity wasted,’ with a top four spot gone begging after losses to the Knights and the aforementioned one to the Warriors.

They did turn things around last week, finishing the season with a gritty win away from home over a severely understrength Melbourne Storm.

The problem for Penrith heading into the finals is that, even when they have been winning, their form hasn’t been all that good.

The return of an injured James Maloney seemed to settle them down in attack last week, but there are still plenty of problems, including defensively, with it completely switching off when they played the Warriors in Auckland a fortnight ago.

In saying that, both of these sides can put on a show attacking-wise. It may come down to whoever defends better, but better is a relative term. We could see a stack of points put up throughout this game.

History

There is very little to gather from the overall head-to-head stats between the clubs. The Panthers hold a slight advantage overall, this seasons battles have been split one all and their only finals match came back in 2003 at this venue with the Panthers winning 28-20 on the way to a famous premiership.

What isn’t shown below though is that the Warriors haven’t beaten Penrith anywhere in Australia during their last five attempts, the last win coming in 2012.

Overall record: Played 41, Panthers 23, Warriors 17, drawn 1
Last meeting: Round 24, Warriors 36 defeat Panthers 16 at Mount Smart Stadium, Auckland
Last five: Panthers 3, Warriors 2
Record at venue: Played 1, Panthers 1, Warriors 0
Record in finals: Played 1, Panthers 1, Warriors 0

Team news

Penrith Panthers
1 Dallin Watene-Zelezniak, 2 Josh Mansour, 3 Waqa Blake, 4 Tyrone Peachey, 5 Christian Crichton, 6 James Maloney, 7 Nathan Cleary, 8 Trent Merrin 9 Sione Katoa, 10 Reagan Campbell-Gillard, 11 Villame Kikau, 12 Isaah Yeo, 13 James Fisher-Harris
Interchange: 14 Tyrone May, 15 Moses Leota, 16 Corey Harawira-Naera, 17 James Tamou, 18 Wayde Egan, 19 Jack Hetherington, 20 Tyrone Phillips, 21 Kaide Ellis

Nothing much here – Corey Harawira-Naera is back for Jack Hetherington, which will give them a boost in the second row during the middle stages of the match.

New Zealand Warriors
1 Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, 2 David Fusitu’a, 3 Peta Hiku, 4 Solomone Kata, 5 Ken Maumalo, 6 Blake Green, 7 Shaun Johnson, 8 James Gavet, 9 Issac Luke, 10 Agnatius Paasi, 11 Adam Blair, 12 Tohu Harris, 13 Simon Mannering
Interchange: 14 Jazz Tevaga, 15 Isaiah Papali’i, 16 Bunty Afoa, 17 Gerard Beale, 18 Leivaha Pulu, 20 Mason Lino, 21 Chris Satae, 22 Karl Lawton

The Warriors have made some big changes though. Blake Green is the man back into the side for Mason Lino in the halves. Many could point the finger at last week and talk about Green not being there. His calming influence has been huge for the Warriors this year and he will do more of the same this weekend.

James Gavet is also back into the front row, while Gerard Beale has been included on the bench with Leivaha Pulu and Chris Satae the two missing out.

Will the Panthers’ defence hold up, and can they actually play during the first half?
There have been serious questions asked of the Panthers defence in the last few weeks. Conceding 36 against the Warriors wasn’t a good look, with a heap of soft tries being scored up the middle third of the park.

The frustrating thing for Penrith fans is that, with any possession and territory allowing them to put the pressure on, they have more than enough attacking weapons to cause havoc on the opposition line.

So while they can run up a score, they are also prone to conceding one.

In fact, Penrith have the third-worst defensive record of all teams qualified for the finals, and with James Maloney missing over six tackles per game, it’s not hard to see why things have been a little brittle at times this year.

That means this match is a concern because while statistically, the Warriors haven’t scored as many points as anyone else in the eight, they can turn it on and are just hitting form at the right time, with 103 points in their last four games.

This is a double-edged sword as well for Penrith. They have often started games slowly this year and come back at the death, with that miraculous comeback against the Sea Eagles headlining.

They can’t afford to do that during the finals, but it’s a question nearly impossible to answer. Can they actually rock up and play from the first minute to the last minute?

Can James Maloney influence his side enough?
Maloney is such an important player for the Panthers, but he has to worry about both ends of the park during the finals series if the men from the foot of the mountains are to make any sort of difference to the way the finals play out.

The Panthers half needs to lead his team in attack, there are no questions to be asked about that.

When he was out with injury, it looked like the weight of the world was on halves partner Nathan Cleary, who struggled to direct his team around the park.

Of course, off-field turmoil and a forward pack led by Reagan Campbell-Gillard and Trent Merrin who couldn’t get the better of anyone wasn’t helping matters.

The duo up front need to lead the charge, allowing Maloney to work his magic.

What Maloney must do is remain patient with the footy in hand. He is a proven winner at this level, going into the finals, but if you look at his last two seasons at the Sharks, there are major differences between his style of play. In 2016, when Cronulla won the competition, he was patient, happy to force dropouts and build pressure. In 2017, he wanted to score every time he touched the footy.

It’s that level of patience he needs to display in this final. Pressure on the Warriors line will eventually get them to crack.

In defence, he has to do a better job at putting his body on the line. At not missing tackles.

It’s as simple as that really.

The Warriors win the battle of the outside backs – they just need quality ball
Ken Maumalo and David Fusitu’a are potentially the most dangerous combination of winger in the competition. They are both big, strong, athletic and know how to find the tryline.

Fusitu’a has come on in leaps and bounds over the last 24 months and it comes as little surprise he scored more tries than anyone else in the competition this year, finishing with 22.

Maumalo has also had a great season, and while they score tries, they also know how to get sets off to a good start and help get their side out of trouble.

What they need though is quality ball, and early.

I’ve already gone over Penrith’s defensive woes. They have a constantly revolving door in the backline at times, so combinations are hard to build in defence, and trusting your teammates with Fusitu’a or Maumalo barrelling around the outside, playing with Solomone Kata or Peta Hiku on the inside isn’t going to be an easy thing.

If the likes of Shaun Johnson and Blake Green, combining with Roger Tuivasa-Sheck can get the ball out wide early, the Warriors outside backs could have an absolute field day running up points.

Issac Luke may be the key to the visitors’ victory
If there is a player returning to career-best form throughout 2018, it’s the Warriors’ rake.

They have made a major turnaround throughout the season, but Luke has been the yardstick by which you could measure just how dramatic their turnaround has been.

At the end of 2017, you wondered if Luke was just about done in the NRL. He was out of form, playing in a team who missed the finals, but they shouldn’t have.

Their form at the back-end of 2017 had most questioning whether they would make the finals or not. Intsead, they were in the top four discussions for much of the season.

Luke’s play out of dummy half has been first-class this season. He hasn’t let a man down, making tackle after tackle in defence and nearly always picking the right play in attack.

Whether it’s his running game around tired markers, bucking in to get his team out of their own end or laying on try assists close to the line, he has done it all.

Coming up against the inexperienced Sione Katoa in this game, it’s the biggest difference in talent and experience between the two sides and if the Kiwi rake wins the battle at hooker convincingly, the Auckland-based outfit will be well on the way to a win.

The Warriors are bad at ANZ Stadium – but does it matter?
One of the interesting statistics heading into this game is the Warriors record at ANZ Stadium.

Somehow, in 19 seasons, they have only played 20 games at the NRL’s most used stadium, but it hasn’t been a tale of success for the Auckland-based outfit.

They have seven wins and a draw all up, but in their last six appearances dating back to 2011, they have only won one – coming against the Eels in Round 11 this year in what was a scrappy 24-14 victory.

Since then, they have lost to the Bulldogs, with their other losses in the recent run coming against the Rabbitohs and Eels (2017), the Bulldogs (2015) and the Sea Ealges (2011). That’s right – between the 2011 finals and Round 25 of the 2015 season, the Warriors didn’t run onto ANZ Stadium.

Regardless, this may not matter for the finals.

ANZ Stadium is hardly the home ground of the Panthers, with their only advantage being it is geographically closer to Penrith than Auckland by about 4,000 kilometres.

Home ground advantage goes out the window in finals, and even more so when you have two teams of a completely unpredictable nature squaring off.

Prediction

I’ve battled with trying to tip this game all week. It could go either way and no one would be surprised in the slightest.

What I don’t expect is a low-scoring game. These two sides will throw it around and with defensive efforts in previous weeks not quite up to standard at times, there will be a lot of points on display.

With that being said, so long as the Warriors can hold onto the ball and not fall into their old bad habits, they should have too much strikepower across the park for their opponents.

I’ve been burned so, so many times over the years tipping the Warriors, but I’m going to.

Warriors by 8.

Key game information

Date: Saturday, September 8
Kick-off: 5:30pm (AEST)
Venue: ANZ Stadium, Sydney
TV: Live, Fox League, Nine Network
Online: Live, Foxtel app, Foxtel now, 9Now
Betting: Panthers $1.71, Warriors $2.15
Referees: Matt Cecchin, Henry Perenara

Don’t forget, The Roar will carry live coverage and highlights of each NRL finals match so you won’t miss a moment of the action.