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The Newcastle Cup, Newcastle’s biggest race day, is this Friday, with the 2300-metre feature race being supported by three other blackt-ype events. Here are my five plays for the afternoon.
Bet 1: Win – Race 1, number two: Ocean Walzer
I think at the price, he’ll take a power of beating. He’s a former German galloper who has taken his time to show his true colours in Australia, but he finally got the maiden win out of the way last time at Swan Hill over 2100 metres, starting short odds and winning accordingly, attacking the line with purpose in a good sign despite doing a bit wrong. Hopefully the trip away will sharpen him up. I think he should be near favourite.
Win odds: $3.30 (BetEasy)
Bet 2: Win- – Race 2, number two: Girl Tuesday
Short odds but, she should be winning. She debuted over 1400 metres here a tick under three weeks ago and produced one of the better debuts in recent times with a barnstorming effort from the back to win, most notably the last 150 metres, where she savaged the line. She is bred to be a beauty and looks to have the ability.
Win odds: $1.7 (BetEasy)
Bet 3: Each-way – Race 3, number four: Coppergate
I think he’s well and truly over the odds. He was formerly with Tony McEvoy but is now with Clare Cunningham. If he runs to his best, he’ll win. He can mix the form, but with Cunningham his two trials leading in have been outstanding. He’s good enough to suggest he’ll be fine fresh over 1200 metres. Double figures is crazy.
Win odds: $12; place odds: $3.60 (BetEasy)
Bet 4: Win – Race 4, number ten: Galina
I’m keen on her. She’s a quality filly who resumes for the Snowden camp. If you cast your mind back to winter, the stable did say this girl was better than Euwase, who of course went on to win some black-type races during the Brisbane carnival. They’ve taken their time with this girl, and though she just brings one soft 700-metre trial leading in, he class should get her home. She just needs luck from the sticky draw.
Win odds: $2.15 (Sportsbet)
Bet 5: Each-way – Race 7, number one: Auvray
This is a pretty solid edition of the cup, but I think this bloke looks a touch of overs. Richard Freedman trains this galloper, who resumed in the Premiers Cup at Rosehill. I thought his effort was superb for a resumption behind a high-quality animal in Avilius. He’s been kept up to the mark with a closing 1200-metre trial at Warwick Farm behind Flow, and though he’s quickly up to 2300 metres, he does seem quite forward. It’s good to see he’s well backed.
Win odds: $7; place odds: $2.5 (BetEasy)
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