The Mounting Yard heads back to Caulfield this week for a bumper nine-race winter program.
We’ve got an action packed day of racing at Randwick on Saturday, with some very handy horses running in some very big races, headlined by the mighty mare Winx in the George Main Stakes.
The great mares biggest test comes this Saturday in what in my opinion is the best field she has come up against in her career.
The track is currently rated as a soft 5 but with the weather being beautiful in Sydney in the next few days I think we will get a good track, the weather will turn it on with the forecast showing 29 degrees and sunshine all day and we should get a fair track with the rail being true for the entire circuit.
We have the Highway handicap here in the first on George Main stakes day over 1000m and to be frank, it isn’t the greatest race of all time, let’s put it that way.
I’m leaning towards SEI STELLA here though, she was racing very well around the country circuits winning two from three but failed when they sent her into town and as said earlier you could mistake this for a race at Kembla Grange so the rise in class isn’t very severe.
She will make her own luck from barrier four by either leading or settling on pace, hard to beat. EQUAL BALANCE is the best horse in this race, but has a lot of things going against it here, draws the car park and has to lug around 8.5kg more than most of the other horses in the race, would be a mighty win if he could do it, clear second pick.
Recommended bet: Wouldn’t be too keen on investing in this race but if forced would go with a win bet on #10 Sei Stella.
The Listed heritage stakes is the second on the card here over the 1100m. This looks like a race down to two and SANTOS is my on topper here. This colt had a brilliant preparation last time until failing in the Golden slipper (which there is no shame in doing), he ticks a lot of boxes here, good at the track, good at the distance and looks to be a horse that can sprint well fresh.
Maps really well to sit just off the leaders backs and will get the run most would want if you asked them before the race, very hard to hold out. NUETRALITY is the clear second pick in this one and looks like a lovely colt.
Went well last preparation and then put up a mighty run first up running second to the enormously talented Graff, he probably has improved from he’s first preparation but the question mark still remains as to whether he is genuine against the top class horses, which she runs into today. Could never take the current quote of $2.40 on offer in this field.
Recommended bet: Decent sized win bet on #1 Santos.
There is a pretty crack field here in the third considering it is only a benchmark 88, they’ll race over the mile in what is a very interesting and wide open race.
LUVALUVA looks overs in the market here at the $9 quote, He is probably the most talented horse in the race and although the mile probably isn’t his ideal trip he still has one win and a placing from five goes at it.
Generally takes a couple of runs to get going in a preparation and is second up here which is a query, I’m happy to take that chance though at the juicy each way odds. GOODFELLA has been really impressive lately running behind Kaonic and beating the talented Abdon, draws to get a few favours in this race from barrier two, will do no work in the run and will be sitting handy, should give a good sight.
MURAQEEB is the other danger from the Hayes yard, has been building up to a race like this nicely and the form line behind Night’s Watch and Osborne Bulls are very good, the wide barrier due to his racing pattern is a pretty big question mark, would need a brilliant ride from Jimmy McDonald.
Recommended bet: Each way bet on #1 Luvaluva.
We have an absolutely cracking race here in the fourth, in the form of the group two The Shorts over the 1100m.
Four Everest runners are competing in this race which should lead to it being a pretty good form line for the rest of the Spring. On an each way basis I really like BRAVE SMASH here, former group one winner who has shown he can race at this level and had a really good run first up in the Heath running behind Voodoo Lad.
The likes of Redzel, invincible star and Ball of Muscle will set a hectic tempo up front and he could just sit off them and storm all over the top of them late, overs in the current market at $9.
REDZEL is the obvious threat and maybe the stand out selection but in a race as good as this I just can’t take the short odds of $1.80 which is currently offered. Won’t be able to get the favours like he did last start here today, can still win however. INVINCIBLE STAR and ENGLISH could both surprise at their best.
Recommended bet: Each way bet on #2 Brave Smash.
The time honoured Bill Ritchie Handicap is the next race in line to dissect here over the 1400m. Another brilliant race here filled with horses who will go on to bigger and better things.
SIEGE OF QUEBEC looks to be the one to beat to my eye, will appreciate being back on dry ground as he just didn’t handle the wet track last start. His first up run before that was absolutely brilliant after travelling three wide where he pushed Le Romain all the way to the post, worked really well in a gallop between them two runs and should be ready to peak here, hard to beat.
PARET and KAONIC are the next two in line, both having won a few in a row respectively. If they get any luck they’ll be motoring home late, the latter is looking for a bit further now.
Recommended bet: Win bet on #8 Siege of Quebec.
Here we are with feature event of the day, the George Main stakes. The whole of Australia sits and watches the great mare Winx every time she races and this time will be no different. Of course my on topper here is the greatest horse that I have ever seen in WINX.
Nobody in their right mind could logically tip against her in any race and especially not with one in a small field, this race would have been very interesting had she of not raced in it. No tipster can tell people to bet on Winx but outside of her my biggest bet of the day in Sydney will be in this race and the one I’m keen on is EGG TART.
This mare has opened up at $26 and we should be getting very juicy place odds for her. She was mightily impressive last start in the Tramaway when she was first up, she should have won that race and she is going to develop into one of Australia’s better horses.
She will sit back in the field from a perfect barrier and be running on strongly down the straight in what will be a perfect audition for a Caulfield Cup.
Recommended bet: Big place bet on #7 Egg tart.
What a brilliant edition this is of the Tea Rose Stakes. The best three year old Fillies in the world will go at it here in the seventh on the card over the 1400m where a lot of these horses are untried at.
Should be one of the easier races to dissect due to most of these horses running against each other in their previous few starts. It can be a money muncher but I’m going with OOHOOD here, it’s going to be her day finally, she surely is one of the best maidens from eight race starts that we have ever seen?
She draws an okay gate in barrier nine and will roll back in the field hopefully one off the rail so that she can have some clear galloping room in the straight, and she has been crying out for the 1400m for a very long time, very hard to beat here.
OUTBACK BARBIE can’t take a trick in regards to the barrier draw and again has the widest barrier which will mean she will practically have to come from last to win the race. She is a better horse than Oohood in my opinion but she might just be too far back again in this one, still looks like a very good place bet.
Recommended bet: Each way bets on both #2 Oohood and #4 outback Barbie
One of the only middle distance type races on the card here and we have a pretty good edition of the Kingston Town this year, they’ll race over the 2000m, the famous distance for the Mighty Kingston Town.
EMPEROR’S WAY is way over the odds here and shapes to be one of the better bets of the day, he finally gets back to Randwick where he is flawless from three goes and he’s also flawless at the distance from two tries.
Loves a bit of hardness in the ground and it looks like we might get that if the weather forecasts are correct. Huge chance at massive odds. AVILIUS is probably the class horse in the race though here, he’s been in sensational form and looks like being one of the horses to watch for the spring.
The further it gets the better he will get I think and he should be pretty hard to beat, amazing turn of foot. LIBRAN is probably third in line but he would need a lot to go right in this race from the widest barrier.
Recommended bet: Each way bet on #10 Emperor’s Way.
We have a benchmark 88 over 1200m in the “get out” stakes and again I think I’ve found some value in this one. RIGHT OR WRONG looks pretty good value here, he raced really well in Listed company last preparation and then had a couple of years off.
His first up run at Sandown against some pretty smart horses was fantastic, he ran very fresh as you’d expect but he really hit the line hard and now needs at least 1200m. Should sit midfield from barrier two and with any luck should be fighting out the finish.
TREKKING is clearly the danger, he has pretty good form lines for a race like this running behind Don’t give a damn last start and beating Tactical Advantage the start before that. Draws a good gate (7) and should sit midfield and have clear galloping room down the straight, big chance.
Recommended bet: Each way bet on #4 Right or Wrong.