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Group 1 Golden Rose preview

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Expert
19th September, 2018
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The Golden Rose has quickly become one of the most exciting races of the spring carnival in either Sydney or Melbourne.

It is now arguably the jewel in the three-year-old crown of any racing season, its only competition being the Caulfield Guineas or the Coolmore Stud Stakes at Flemington on Derby day.

Intrigue surrounds this year’s Golden Rose, with no clear-cut favourite, a number of key horses hitting the race only second-up, and some main lead up races being held on rain-affected ground.

The Run to the Rose is the traditional lead-in, and six of the 11 runners are from that race. It was run on a heavy eight, which adds a layer of complexity to assessing the form, given we will likely see a good track on Saturday.

Lean Mean Machine was something of a surprise winner of the Run to the Rose, albeit backed from $21 into $14 on the day. This was not because people necessarily doubted his quality, but his only previous heavy track run he failed despite being well in the market and coming off a win.

Lean Mean Machine jumped out of the ground in the last furlong, and gave the impression if the race was another 200m he would have put several lengths on his rivals. It’s going to take a good one to beat him.

Capitalist wins again

Racing at Rosehill Gardens. (AAP Image/Brendan Esposito)

Graff is that good one according to punters, and has been installed as Golden Rose favourite after a brave second behind Lean Mean Machine in the Run to the Rose. He was three wide without cover for most of the race after jumping from the widest barrier, but still looked the winner for a large portion of the straight, in defiance of his tough run.

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No trainer in the country is running hotter than Kris Lees right now, which helps Graff’s claims. The biggest key to his favouritism is barrier four though. He drew the inside in the San Domenico first-up, when he bolted in by two and a half lengths after enjoying the run of the race, and is set up for the same scenario here in transit.

Jonker led them along at largely his own pace in the Run to the Rose, and gave some cheek in finishing third beaten only a length. He’s likely to have some more company up the front this time, and it’s hard to find reasons for him to turn the tables on both of Lean Mean Machine and Graff.

Zousain and Sandbar were fourth and fifth respectively in the Run to the Rose, 3-4 lengths off the winner.

Zousain had a strong Queensland carnival, like his stablemates Lean Mean Machine and The Autumn Sun, and also like them he hits the Golden Rose second-up. He ground away in the straight first-up, and is somewhere in the mix if he takes more improvement than all others.

Sandbar might be a little bit forgotten. He had to make an early race move forward in the Run to the Rose after getting trapped wide out of the gates, and it’s doubtful he’s as good on the wet as he is on firmer ground. He did win first-up, and pushed Blue Diamond winner Written By in the autumn, both on good tracks, and ran a handy race in the Golden Slipper. He’s a nice horse.

Long Leaf was eighth in the Run to the Rose and has drawn a wide barrier, but the Hayes camp have indicated he might be scratched.

The Autumn Sun, one of two Group 1 winners in the field, is coming from the Stan Fox where he finished third but was probably a good thing beaten. He got motoring late after being squeezed out of a run early in the straight that cost him all momentum.

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Linda Meech celebrates after winning The Coolmore Classic in 2015

The Coolmore Classic at Rosehill. (Photo by Anthony Johnson/Getty Images)

First-up 1500m on a heavy track, dropping back to 1400m on a good track doesn’t exactly scream recipe for success, and as a two year old 1600m winner, there is a question whether The Autumn Sun will have the sharpness to beat the best over seven furlongs. We can rest assured he won’t be getting tired when the others are, if the pace is hot.

The other Group 1 winner in the field is the lone filly Seabrook, who won the Champagne Stakes at Randwick. Despite being trained by Mick Price down in Melbourne, she has a wealth of Sydney form, and her win in the Sweet Embrace in March was something special too.

Seabrook’s run first-up in the McNeil against the boys was solid enough, but the word out of Caulfield is that she has really come on and is ready to run a big race. She has the proven quality to do so.

A few lesser lights round out the field.

Danawi was sixth in the Stan Fox, but was found wanting late albeit in a race where he was on speed setting it up for the swoopers. He wasn’t a long way off The Autumn Sun on debut back in April, and has been consistent in stakes races since.

Santos came through the B two year old form in the autumn to run respectably in the Golden Slipper, albeit with not many behind him. The Waterhouse stable had him lump 59kg’s over 1100m in the Heritage first-up in readiness for the Golden Rose, hoping for some weight relief to tell a story. It’s hard to make a case.

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Tchaikovsky hasn’t show enough to suggest he can mix it with the top end of town.

The speed should be genuine, without necessarily being helter skelter. Danawi will probably lead after pushing across from a wider gate, with Jonker from a cosier draw also there. Santos and Sandbar will want to race handy, and Graff will slot in behind them.

The Waller trio in the first three saddlecloths and Seabrook are certain to take positions in the second half of the field, and will all be charging home when the straighten.
Selections: 1.Lean Mean Machine 2.Seabrook 3.Graff 4.The Autumn Sun

The support card at Rosehill has some handy races, the best of which is the Golden Pendant. It sees Sydney’s best sprinter-miler mares take each other on over 1400m – Prompt Response, Dixie Blossoms, Champagne Cuddles, Invincibella and Daysee Doom. Dixie Blossoms might be the one here, always so honest in this grade and coming off an exceptional first-up run against the males.

Arbeitsam looks great value in the Shannon Stakes, fully fit and ready to fire third up, capable of running his rivals off their feet. Youngstar is another rising star from the Waller stable, and we’ll get another indication of where she fits in.

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