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Four meetings have been set down for Monday, and I’m all over one at Bathurst. Here are my five plays for the afternoon.
Bet 1: Win – Bathurst Race 2, number three: Kormaddie
I think $5-plus is more than acceptable for a horse in career-best form. Mervyn Bennett has this bloke flying at the moment. He ran over 1460 metres at Queanbeyan last time, when Guymer was really aggressive in finding the front, maintaining a decent margin and dashing clear on the turn to hold them at bay. He looks to lead for fun here and I think he’s a great bet.
Bet: $20 win at $5 (BetEasy)
Bet 2: Win – Bathurst Race 5, number 11: Baaed
It’s fraught with danger, but this looks like a genuine $1.40 to $1.50 chance. He and Maid In Milan are close in the market – but why, I do not know. Both debuted over 1100 metres – Baaed on a firm track in Hawkesbury, Maid In Milan on a soft seven at Gosford. Baaed ran some 15 lengths quicker on times in a pretty solid debut, albeit the times slightly flattered by the wet track at Gosford, but even allowing for that I can’t see Maid In Milan beating Baaed with the latter drawing Gate 1 and likely holding the lead or box seat. The relative times for the respective meetings also favour Baaed.
Bet: $120 win at $2.25 (BetEasy)
Bet 2: Win – Pakenham Race 1, number ten: She’s Deluxe
She just has to handle the Synthetic and she’ll be winning. She was three weeks between runs when racing in a 2000-metre maiden last time at Bairnsdale, and while she didn’t have a real turn of foot, she stuck on well and just missed after surging late. With 2200 metres likely no issue and with absolutely no depth here, if she’s okay on the surface, she’ll win.
Bet: $50 win (Tote)
Bet 4: Each-way – Queanbeyan Race 7, number three: Mucker
It’s a throw at the stumps in the last with this Aaron Clarke-trained gelding, who can run a race fresh and finds a winnable race. His best form will come over further – say, 1200 to 1400 metres – but he draws a decent enough gate and with these 900-metre scampers. More often than not they will go silly on speed, and this horse will get back and launch late.
Bet: $10 each-way (Tote)
Bet 5: Win (multi) – Northam Race 3: Leading Girl; Race 5: Sporty Spice
Couple of Pike shorties to multi. Leading Girl is a beautifully bred filly on debut for Team Williams and Bob Peters, a daughter of Reliable Man. There’s been just one trial this prep, but it was sharp and in good time, so the grounding is there for her to win on debut. Sporty Spice should be winning off a very encouraging debut over 1100 metres here when second to Time To Trade, who won next start to frank the form. This looks like a very soft race for her to get the maiden out of the way.
Bet: $40 win at $2.90 (Sportsbet)
All odds correct at the time of writing. Gamble responsibly.
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