Brownlow Medal night is upon us once again and after two relatively straightforward counts in the past two years, things are a bit less certain in 2018.
Tom Mitchell is the short-priced favourite as things stand but by no means is he the lock that Patrick Dangerfield or Dustin Martin were, and there’s a pack of worthy contenders shortly behind him.
Nat Fyfe and Andrew Gaff can be safely ruled out, having been disqualified due to in-season suspensions – but let’s take a look at the favourites and smokies left in the mix.
Tom Mitchell – $1.53
Another prolific season has seen Mitchell rocket into clear favouritism for the medal after finishing third in the count last year.
Mitchell averaged 35 disposals and eight clearances per game this year, and the improved performance of Hawthorn as a team should help his campaign.
Expect him to jump out to an early lead thanks to three games of 40+ disposals to start the year, and come home strong with another four in a row from Round 17 through Round 20.
Max Gawn – $9
Gawn broke the record for total hit-outs in a season this year with 1119 after finals, while also averaging a career-high 15 disposals per match.
In the latter half of the year in particular he developed a valuable ability to float backwards and regularly take intercept marks.
His consistency and dominance puts him in with a good chance of becoming the first ruckman to win the Brownlow since Scott Wynd in 1992.
Dustin Martin – $9
Martin’s 2018 form has been a notch below his record-breaking 2017 year no matter how you look at it, but many still have him in Brownlow medal calculations.
Martin has averaged 25 disposals and five clearances this year, while also kicking 31 goals across the length of the season.
Patrick Cripps – $16
Despite Carlton finishing on the bottom of the ladder, Cripps’ outstanding season has him a chance to become the first Brownlow Medallist from a wooden spoon side since 1949.
A tireless workhorse throughout the season, Cripps has averaged 29 disposals and seven clearances in 2018 with relatively little support.
Brodie Grundy – $18
Although Gawn beat him for the first ruck spot in the All Australian team, Grundy’s 2018 season was so good as to earn him a spot in the side as the first ‘second ruck’ selected since Dean Cox in 2012.
Gawn has him beat for hitouts, but Grundy’s superior averages of 20 hitouts and five clearances per game arguably make him a better Brownlow candidate.
(Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Media/Getty Images)
Clayton Oliver – $21
A dominant season at the contest has Oliver a chance to upstage the favourites and become the sixth-youngest Brownlow Medallist in the history of the VFL/AFL.
Elliot Yeo – $34
2018 saw Yeo radically improve his tackling and clearance numbers after moving more into the midfield. He’s the Eagles’ best chance to take home the award.
Steele Sidebottom – $51
Sidebottom has enjoyed a career-best year averaging 30 disposals and four clearances per game, and given Collingwood’s success would have to be an outside chance.
While Tom Mitchell is the short-priced favourite, don’t take that as gospel that he’ll win – it’s a very open year and I’d suggest any of the top five could be a serious chance.
That said, I suspect that the umpires will ignore the ruckmen often enough that a midfielder will likely come away with the overall win.
That being the case you’d have to think that Mitchell, having appeared in 15 wins versus Carlton’s 2, should attract more votes than Patrick Cripps.
Personally I’d argue that Brodie Grundy has been the year’s most valuable player but I don’t expect the umpires to agree – he’ll fit onto the podium though.
1. Tom Mitchell
2. Patrick Cripps
3. Brodie Grundy
(AAP Image/Joe Castro)
Adelaide Crows
Rory Laird was far and away the Crows’ best in 2018 and has already picked up their best-and-fairest. If not for a few weeks off with injury he could’ve been a contender.
Brisbane Lions
Dayne Beams had the most consistent and accomplished season of any Lion this year and you’d expect he’ll easy top their count.
Carlton Blues
Patrick Cripps is probably a chance to win more votes tonight than every other player on the list combined.
Collingwood Magpies
Comes down to two men: Brodie Grundy or Steele Sidebottom. I’ll tip Grundy, but don’t be surprised if the umpires favour the midfielder.
Essendon Bombers
A close call for the Dons this year with Devon Smith, Zach Merrett, Dyson Heppell, David Zaharakis all in the mix – or maybe even Orazio Fantasia off the back of some eye-catching performances. I’ll tip Merrett.
Fremantle Dockers
Nat Fyfe should poll the most votes for the Dockers but is ineligible to win the award overall. Lachie Neale next best.
Geelong Cats
Patrick Dangerfield hasn’t been at the same standard as the past two years but will likely still lead Geelong’s voting this year. Gary Ablett a chance.
Gold Coast Suns
Don’t expect any Suns players to poll heavily. David Swallow probably the best bet, though Tom Lynch despite playing only a handful of games would almost be a chance.
GWS Giants
Expect Stephen Coniglio to be the Giants’ top vote-getter this year.
Hawthorn Hawks
Tom Mitchell comfortably.
Melbourne Demons
It comes down to Max Gawn or Clayton Oliver, and while Gawn is shorter-priced for the medal at all, this could easily go either way. I’ll tip Gawn.
North Melbourne Kangaroos
Shaun Higgins was considered in with a chance at the medal until late in the season and should pick up the most votes for North.
(Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
Port Adelaide Power
Robbie Gray had a number of standout games and that should be enough to make him Port’s most prolific vote-getter.
Richmond Tigers
Not sure he’s a serious chance to win it overall but Martin should get the most votes for the Tigers. Jack Riewoldt could be an outside chance.
Sydney Swans
Lance Franklin was the Swans’ most reliable match-winner this year, expect the votes tonight to reflect that.
St Kilda Saints
Don’t think he’s been much better than say Seb Ross this year, but Jack Steven is more eye-catching and should get the most votes for the Saints.
West Coast Eagles
Reckon Andrew Gaff will actually pick up the most votes for West Coast, but he’s ineligible for the award. Elliot Yeo the next best.
Western Bulldogs
Although he missed a few weeks in the season, Jackson Macrae’s prolific form should see him pick up the most votes for the Dogs.
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