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Australia’s new-look Test XI looks set to be confirmed this Saturday when they play a warm-up match against Pakistan A in Dubai.
I expect the Australian selectors to lock in the team for the first Test prior to this tour fixture and then give that XI a chance to play together in this four-day match.
While such warm-ups are sometimes used as shootouts between players competing for Test spots, I believe the recent Australia A tour has already acted as such a proving ground.
With only one tour match prior to the first Test, which starts on October 7, Australia do not have time to tinker with their lineup.
None of their best XI can afford to sit out this practice match, each of them needs it in order to prepare for the first Test.
While Michael Neser would be a better option than Peter Siddle in the UAE, it seems clear the veteran seamer will play against Pakistan – he has not been recalled after so long just to warm the bench.
The same goes for 31-year-old batsman Aaron Finch, who was not picked just so he can watch from the sidelines as 24-year-old Marnus Labuschagne makes his Test debut.
Travis Head will be given a go in Test cricket. (AAP Image/David Mariuz)
This is the team I expect to play both the warm-up match on Saturday and the first Test:
1. Matt Renshaw
2. Usman Khawaja
3. Shaun Marsh
4. Travis Head
5. Aaron Finch
6. Mitch Marsh
7. Tim Paine © (wk)
8. Mitchell Starc
9. Peter Siddle
10. Jon Holland
11. Nathan Lyon
There is still an outside chance, however, that Australia could field three frontline spinners, just like they did in their last Test in Asia, against Bangladesh last year. The odds of that happening have been shortened by the absence of star quicks Pat Cummins and Josh Hazlewood.
The condition of the Dubai pitch, of course, will have a major impact on the composition of the Australian attack. In the most recent Test played in Dubai, Pakistan fielded three frontline quicks.
In that day-night fixture, spinners took 22 wickets compared to 18 for the quicks.
The last time Australia toured the UAE to play Tests against Pakistan they fielded two specialist spinners and two frontline quicks, with Mitch Marsh providing a third seam option.
The pitches in that series were very flat, offering limited assistance to either quicks or spinners. Australian slow bowlers Lyon and Steve O’Keefe were dominated in that series, combining to take seven wickets at 92.
The only Australian bowler who proved a consistent threat against Pakistan was express quick Mitch Johnson, who took six wickets at 29.
This time, Australia will look to fellow intimidating left armer Starc to overcome the sleepy UAE surfaces. Like Johnson, Starc will surely be used in short, sharp stints with the sole aim of taking wickets.
By comparison, Siddle or Neser will be used as stock bowlers to try to tie up an end and build pressure for Starc and the spinners.
Agar would be able to perform a similar holding role. The tall left arm tweaker was impressive in two Tests in Bangladesh last year, taking seven wickets at 23 and going at a miserly 2.62 runs per over.
Ashton Agar is a fine prospect for the Aussie Test team as an all rounder. (AFP, Saeed Khan)
Agar would also add to Australia’s batting depth, having averaged 32 with the bat across his brief Test career.
Yet I sense he is behind Holland in the spin pecking order and will only play if Australia decide to field three tweakers. Since struggling in his debut Test series, in Sri Lanka two years ago, Holland has been outstanding in first-class cricket.
He has taken 71 wickets at 21 in that time, including a match-winning nine-wicket haul for Australia A against India A in Bangalore earlier this month.
Holland is a more attacking option than Agar as he bowls with greater loop and more often beats batsmen in the air. Agar’s main weapons are his accuracy and the bounce he earns thanks to his 189cm frame.
I expect Agar to sit out the first Test, with Holland and Siddle both getting chances to reignite their Test careers.