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We’re in the AFL era of the unexpected.
Another grand final is upon us, and for the fifth year in a row the side that finished on top of the ladder won’t be storing the premiership cup in their trophy cabinet.
In fact, the top of the ladder team has only won the flag twice in the last 11 seasons. Collingwood in 2010 and Hawthorn in 2013 were the last two clubs to complete the double.
The Western Bulldogs in 2016 and Richmond in 2017 delivered long-awaited fairytales, and it seemed that Melbourne was potentially destined to do the same until they ran into a blue and yellow brick wall. West Coast were the irresistible force, Melbourne the moveable object.
Of course, the Tigers were seen as the best side in the competition all year and it was clear by the end of April they would end up in a preliminary final at least, but can now only reflect on a wasted season. They only had one real test this year, and they failed it.
Trent Cotchin of the Tigers looks dejected after a loss. (Photo by Adam Trafford/AFL Media/Getty Images)
West Coast and Collingwood had few admirers before the season, just as Richmond didn’t at the start of last year, and the Bulldogs didn’t at the beginning of the 2016 finals. All four clubs in those situations must have been around the 50-1 mark for the premiership.
An anomaly of this year’s finals series has been the reversal of fortunes from the home and away rounds.
The eventual finals victors had a 2-9 win-loss record this season going into their September match-ups.
Geelong and Sydney beat Melbourne and GWS twice each in the regular season, but got bundled out by their respective elimination final opponents in week one. The Tigers took care of the Pies by an average of 35 points in their two clashes earlier this year, but succumbed when it counted.
Hawthorn trounced the Dees in their only home and away clash, but the tables were turned in the semi-final. The Giants bested Collingwood in Round 2, but had no answer in the return match played last week.
Melbourne got one up on West Coast in Perth in Round 22, leading to some foolish Roar commentators to declare them certainties in the preliminary final.
What does this all mean? Is it just a series of coincidences? Are coaches getting better than ever at identifying what broke down for them against certain opposition, and fixing them accordingly?
More likely is that the competition is so even between the top eight sides, it’s hard to beat any opposition more than twice in a row.
West Coast handed Collingwood one of their worst losses for the season when dismantling them to the tune of 35 points at the MCG in Round 17. The Eagles got their kicking game going, scything through the Pie defence. The Magpies couldn’t get their pressure game up and running.
In the qualifying final less than three weeks ago West Coast once again prevailed, this time in Perth, albeit it in a tight, see-sawing battle.
Mark LeCras of the Eagles celebrates a goal (Photo by Paul Kane/Getty Images)
Collingwood took control of the game through the middle stages after a fast start to the Eagles, wearing them down with their intensity and high possession game. Then Josh Kennedy and Jack Darling stepped in to take the game away.
The key forward duo are going to be important once again in the grand final, against the undermanned and undersized Magpie backline. The off-field conditioning staff, as well as the players themselves, must be applauded for how fine a fettle these two have hit September after missing significant football.
It needs to be said the Eagles are 12-0 with both Kennedy and Darling in the side this year, with five of those wins away from home.
The key to West Coast’s continued rise later in the season, especially in the absence of Nic Naitanui and Andrew Gaff, has been the form of lesser lights Jamie Cripps, Dom Sheed and Jack Redden. Cripps in particular has been in devastating form, averaging 20 touches and two goals a game since Gaff was suspended.
Collingwood will once again be relying on their midfield depth and a forward-line working in complete unison to get the job done. Their balance between inside and outside was exceptional against Richmond, and they were able to spread the Tiger defence to give their forwards an easier time of it.
This hasn’t been a close finals series, with the average winning margin pushing six goals. Teams are finding it hard to arrest momentum once it goes against them, and the side on top has usually been able to smell blood in the water, increasing their intensity and forcing their opponent into more vulnerable positions.
Taylor Adams of the Magpies (Photo by Paul Kane/Getty Images)
Both grand final teams will also have to face the psychological challenge of backing up from what were season-high performances. Sides will often come out flat the week after in those circumstances.
Hopefully we’re in store for a peach of a contest, as we wish for every year. A replica of the qualifying final would be just the ticket, given it was one of the matches of the season.
West Coast by 18 points for me, with Elliot Yeo to take home the Norm Smith medal.