Friday night at Moonee Valley kicks off a huge weekend of Group 1 racing.
First off is the Moir Stakes for the sprinters. Saturday sees two great handicaps, the Epsom and Metropolitan as well as the Flight Stakes for fillies take place at Randwick. Sunday brings us back to Melbourne for the Underwood Stakes for the middle distance weight-for-age horses.
The Moir shapes up as an absolute belter of an event. Every horse that has at least one run under their belt this campaign is in great form, and there are a host of talented gallopers resuming with hot first-up records.
Nature Strip is the very short priced favourite for this race. As he has done for a year or more, he divides opinion whenever his name comes up. While he probably deserves favouritism, the price that he has come up seems very much the unders.
That said, he is no stranger to starting at the ‘shorts’. Only twice in his 11-start career has he started in the black, at $4.40 in his second ever run and $2.40 in the Euclase Stakes in Adelaide earlier this year, races in which he lost both times. The rest of his career has been at odds-on, where he has recorded wins in eight of nine races.
Nature Strip has won four races on end, all since being transferred to the master hands of Darren Weir. Last start was his most impressive yet in winning the McEwen Stakes in track record time for the Moonee Valley 1000m, the same distance the Moir Stakes is being run over. He set a fast pace and kept going. Shoals, an Everest slot-holder, was almost four lengths behind him.
The Darren Weir-trained Nature Strip at Flemington. (AAP Image/George Salpigtidis)
Houtzen almost chased down Nature Strip in the McEwen first-up, going down by a short half-head, and in second favourite accordingly. She ran in the Everest herself a year ago and is a smart sprinter in her own right, and will put herself right in the race tracking the speed once more.
There is only one 2018 Everest slot-holder in the Moir, and that is Brave Smash. He’s looked good in the his two starts this prep, running third beaten a length at 1100m both times. Back to 1000m here isn’t ideal for him, but there is only one race he is aiming for and he’s perfectly on track for it.
Ball of Muscle won those two 1100m races that Brave Smash ran third in, The Heath Stakes at Caulfield and The Shorts at Randwick. Both times he set the agenda out in front, defying all others to catch him, but none could real him in. He’s back to his very best form, and must be respected as a winning threat.
Voodoo Lad is another veteran sprinter in fine fettle, recording two wins this campaign already. He got going early to pick up races like the Monash Stakes and Aurie’s Star, and last start split Ball of Muscle and Brave Smash. He’ll be at the tail while they go crazy up front, and will be charging late.
Jungle Edge has been on the Caulfield weight-for-age path, running well in races that he is probably outgraded in, especially on good ground. He ran eighth in this last year, beaten 2.4 lengths, but since then he has run second to Redzel over the 1000m course. The race will prove too hot for him.
Faatinah is an enigmatic galloper from the Hayes yard, beaten two lengths in the Moir last year, but coming off a first-up win this track and distance. His second-up record isn’t as good as when he’s resuming, but it’s still respectable, and a month between runs helps his chances. He’s one of many natural leaders that will ensure the pace is hectic up front.
The other six horses in the field are all first-up. Combined, they have had 33 first-up starts for 15 wins and 10 placings.
Viddora is the best of these, having taken on Group 1 company five times for a win and two seconds, including the narrowest of losses in this race last season, when she just failed to claim She Will Reign after weaving a passage up the inside. She’s a seriously talented swooper that will love the pressure up front.
Missrock ran fifth in the VRC Oaks as a three year old filly, but has been kept to sprinting trips ever since. She’s been placed three times at Group 1 level, including the Lightning Stakes behind Redkirk Warrior and Redzel when first-up in the autumn. If she produces that run here she’ll be in the finish.
Snitty Kitty is as honest as they come, but with more than a hint of quality about her too. She’s only missed a place four times and in her career and three of those were running fourth. She beat the likes of Faatinah and Missrock at 1000m when bolting in at Caulfield last October, and can’t be ruled out.
Spright, Savanna Amour and Nieta are all handy sprinting mares, last seen in the Brisbane carnival where they all ran well in various races, but not in a way to suggest they can figure in this. They’ll be horses to watch out for in mares grade later in the carnival.
Races don’t come much hotter than this, with so much natural speed engaged. Ball of Muscle, Jungle Edge, Faatinah, Nature Strip, Houtzen and Snitty Kitty all prefer to lead or be right there, but they can’t all have their way.
The chasing pack will involve Brave Smash, Voodoo Lad, Viddora and Missrock as the main chances. The question will be whether those up the front tire each other out pestering for the lead, or do they go so fast that the closers are off the bit well before the straight and never get into a rhythm.
It will be a fascinating battle of tactics and firepower, and these Moonee Valley Group 1 sprints often have a blanket-finish. It won’t surprise if two lengths covers the first 10 runners home. Picking a winner is a lottery, but that’s the game we’re in.
Selections: 1.Viddora 2.Nature Strip 3.Ball of Muscle 4.Missrock
Racing at Moonee Valley. (AAP Image/Joe Castro)
There’s a couple of decent support races on the Moonee Valley card.
The Stutt Stakes find the three year olds on the Guineas trail squaring off. It’s usually seen as the B-form for that race, but invariably something from here runs a drum at Caulfield.
Leonardo Da Hinchi is a nice horse for Darren Weir that won his first two starts and has then run placings to the hotly spruiked Brutal. He’s the rightful favourite here, but horses like Muswellbrook and Outrageous are building to something too. The latter in particular looks a nice Derby colt, for those playing the futures.
The JRA Cup over 2040m has some well credentialed stayers taking a lap of Moonee Valley. Trap for Fools is the short-priced favourite, but Lloyd Williams has The Taj Mahal and Sir Isaac Newton engaged, and don’t be surprised to see one of them walk away with the chocolates.
The Scarborough Stakes sees a handy field of fillies assembled for a 1200m Group 3. Humma Humma has been knocking on the door in the right kind of races and it might be her turn to win. Enbihaar was second in the Blue Diamond last season, and before that beat Oohood and Seabrook in the Fillies Prelude. Back to set weights might be the ticket for her.
The Moonee Valley card looks a great way to kick of a supreme weekend of racing, complemented by the AFL and NRL grand finals. Make sure your pockets are deep, and the TV remote is full of batteries.
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