Here are some of the most important takeaways from Round 2 of the NRL.
So here we are at the final game of the season. I’m not feeling a lot of love for either of these sides out there. However, both are very deserving participants.
What is a bit sad is that, without Cooper Cronk, the Roosters may not be able to achieve their potential. The key attributes for both sides are not their attacking prowess, but their staunch defence.
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The two sides that have made it are clearly the best two defensive sides of the year. The Roosters average 14.5 points conceded a game, the Storm 15.3. So the chances are very good that this will be a low-scoring affair.
The good news for the Roosters is that the stats are strong: the best defensive side for the year often wins the competition.
|Year||Winning team||Season defensive ranking|
|2016||Sharks||Third (beat best defence)|
|2015||Cowboys||Fifth (beat third best)|
|2011||Sea Eagles||Second (beat fifth best)|
|2008||Sea Eagles||Second (Beat best defence – C. Smith suspension)|
|2005||Cowboys||Seventh (beat sixth best)|
|2004||Bulldogs||Third (beat best defence)|
|2003||Panthers||Seventh (beat second best)|
|2001||Knights||Seventh (beat best defence)|
|1999||Storm||Fifth (beat sixth best)|
In 50 per cent of the NRL seasons so far the best defensive side for the year has won the decider. Three more times the higher ranked defensive side won. So two-thirds of the time, being the best defensive side brings home the bacon.
On three occasions (2015, 2005, 1999) the decider was fought out between two sides a bit down the defensive pecking order. However, on four occasions (2016, 2008, 2004, 2001) the best ranked defensive side was beaten in the decider. So there is hope for the Storm.
|Year||Table finish of contesting sides||Winner|
|2017||First and eighth||First (Storm winner)|
|2016||First and third||Third (Storm loser)|
|2015||Second and third||Third|
|2014||Third and seventh||Third|
|2013||First and fourth||First (Roosters winner)|
|2012||First and second||Second (Storm winner)|
|2011||Second and sixth||Second|
|2010||First and sixth||First (Roosters loser)|
|2009||Fourth and eighth||Fourth (Storm winner)|
|2008||First and second||Second (Storm loser)|
|2007||First and second||First (Storm winner)|
|2006||First and third||Third (Storm loser)|
|2005||Fourth and fifth||Fourth|
|2004||First and second||Second (Roosters loser)|
|2003||First and second||First (Roosters loser)|
|2002||First and fourth||Fourth (Roosters winner)|
|2001||First and third||Third|
|2000||First and second||First (Roosters loser)|
|1999||Third and sixth||Third (Storm winner)|
|1998||First and ninth||First|
In the 20 NRL seasons so far, the side that finished higher on the ladder has won nine times (45 per cent). The first-placed side has made the decider 14 times but have only won seven of them.
So taking top spot – as the Roosters have – is no guarantee of success at all.
The first and second placed sides have faced off in the grand final six times, with the second-placed side triumphing on three occasions – including the last two occurrences (2012, 2008) when the Storm lost despite having been minor premiers.
That won’t make great reading for the Roosters.
One stat that is certain is for the 16th time in the NRL era, the premier will have gone through the finals series undefeated.
These two sides are – statistically speaking – the juggernauts of the NRL era.
This is the 21st season of the NRL and, including Sunday’s decider, these two sides have taken 16 of the 42 possible grand final spots available. That’s 38.1 per cent of them taken by just 12.5 per cent of the clubs (not including those that have ceased to exist during the era).
Amazingly, this is the first time that these two sides have met in a decider.
We already know the Storm’s amazing finals record. Including this game, the Storm have played in nine grand finals in 21 seasons.
This is their third straight grand final appearance. It is their eighth decider in 13 seasons. They’ve won four of those.
Only three times have the Storm not made the finals in 21 seasons. This will be their 46th finals match in that time.
That equates to 2.2 finals played on average each year. They’ve only lost 16 of 45 (35.5 per cent). Of the 196 NRL finals games that have been played since 1998, the most the Storm could possibly have played in is 68 (allowing for 2010 where they were ineligible).
So, they have played in 67.6 per cent of every finals game they possibly could have.
This will be the Roosters’ 40th finals match in the NRL era. The maximum number they could have played in is 78. So they have played in 51.3 per cent of every possible finals game they could have.
They have won 23 of the 39 NRL finals they have played (59 per cent). This will be the Roosters’ seventh grand final appearance in 21 seasons. They’ve won two of six so far.
|Line breaks conceded||3.4 (#2 NRL)||3.1 (#1 NRL)||+0.3 Storm|
|Missed tackles||22.6 (#2 NRL)||21.5 (#1 NRL)||+1.1 Storm|
|Tries conceded||2.5 (#2 NRL)||2.2 (#1 NRL)||+0.3 Storm|
|Errors||10.8 (#14th NRL)||10.8 (14th NRL)||Equal|
|Meters conceded||1283.4 (#1 NRL)||1394.9 (10th NRL)||+111.5 Roosters|
|Penalties conceded||7.7||8.1||+0.4 Roosters|
|Offloads conceded||9.9||11 (#16 NRL)||+1.1 Roosters|
The only real differences between the sides here are that the Storm do not like to give up metres at all, but the Roosters are a bit more relaxed.
The Roosters are also very relaxed about conceding offloads. They concede the most in the NRL per game.
Neither side seems to put much store in low error rates either, both being relatively profligate throughout the season. Given their one-two finish, it doesn’t seem to have hurt too much at all.
The key stats for this match are that neither side will give up a missed tackle, line break or try without a huge fight.
Individual player stats
|Tackles made||C. Smith – 34.8
F. Kaufusi – 31.8
D. Finucane – 27.2
J. Stimson – 23.3
|J. Friend – 42.8 (#1 NRL)
R. Matterson – 29.9
B. Cordner – 26.4
I. Liu – 25.3
|Missed tackles||C. Munster – 2.8
W. Chambers – 2.7
B. Croft – 2.6
|J. Friend – 2
L. Keary – 2
B. Cordner – 2
V. Radley – 1.9
|Penalties conceded||C. Munster – 19
C. Smith – 19
N. Asofa-Solomona – 15
D. Finucane – 11
|L. Mitchell – 23
J. Friend – 22
D. Napa – 17
J. Waerea- Hargreaves – 16
|Errors||S. Vunivalu – 27
W. Chambers – 23
J. Addo-Carr – 23
B. Slater – 23
|B. Ferguson – 33
J. Tedesco – 28
L. Keary – 27
D. Tupou – 20
Veteran hooker Jake friend is the number one tackler in the NRL in 2018, both in terms of average and total number. He’s a lucky boy that one of his tackles isn’t making him miss this game.
He is well supported by Ryan Matterson and Boyd Cordner. Cam Smith is similarly well supported by Felise Kaufusi and Dale Finucane in the tackling department.
Neither side have many weaknesses in defence. The five-eighths on both sides will surely have traffic aimed at them. Will Chambers will also get some attention from the ball runners.
As pointed out above, both sides commit a lot of errors. However, looking at their key culprits above, these are attacking errors. The crucial factor in this game is who can make the passes stick the best.
|Line breaks||4.2 (#10 NRL)||4.5 (#6 NRL)||+0.3 Roosters|
|Tackle breaks||27.2 (#7 NRL)||27.3 (#8 NRL)||+0.1 Roosters|
|Tries scored||3.6 (#5 NRL)||3.7 (#3 NRL)||+0.1 Roosters|
|Meters made||1349 (#13 NRL)||1436 (#2 NRL)||+87 Roosters|
|Penalties received||9.1 (#1 NRL)||7.7 (#14 NRL)||+1.4 Storm|
|Offloads||9.6 (#9 NRL)||6.8 (#14 NRL)||+2.8 Storm|
There are only two high-ranking stats for either team here. Melbourne have received more penalties than any other side this season. Sydney, meanwhile, have made the second most metres of any side in 2018.
The rest of their attacking team stats are mediocre or poor – apart from tries scored, which is quite acceptable from both sides.
Individual player stats
|Tackle breaks||J. Addo-Carr – 92 (#7 NRL)
B. Slater – 73
N. Asofa-Solomona – 64
C. Munster – 65
S. Vunivalu – 45
|J. Tedesco – 132 (#1 NRL)
L. Mitchell – 101 (#4 NRL)
B. Ferguson – 82
D. Tupou – 52
J. Manu – 62
B. Cordner – 31
|Line breaks||J. Addo-Carr – 19 (#6 NRL)
B. Slater – 13
S. Vunivalu – 11
C. Munster – 9
|B. Ferguson – 24 (#2 NRL)
J. Tedesco – 19 (#6 NRL)
L. Mitchell – 18 (#10 NRL)
L. Keary – 10
J. Manu – 10
|Metres gained||J. Addo-Carr – 125 (#39 NRL)
J. Bromwich – 114 (#54 NRL)
B. Slater – 108
|B. Ferguson – 189 (#1 NRL)
J. Tedesco – 179 (#2 NRL)
D. Tupou – 151 (#7 NRL)
S. Taukeiaho – 128
B. Cordner – 111
|Tries scored||J. Addo-Carr – 17 (#6 NRL)
S. Vunivalu – 15 (#8 NRL)
C. Scott – 9
B. Slater – 7
|B. Ferguson – 18 (#4 NRL)
L. Mitchell – 16 (#7 NRL)
J. Tedesco – 9
J. Manu – 7
|Try assists||C. Munster – 18 (#7 NRL)
B. Slater – 15 (#14 NRL)
R. Jacks – 7
|L. Keary – 20 (#3 NRL)
J. Tedesco – 19 (#4 NRL)
C. Cronk – 15
|Line break assists||C. Munster – 18 (#6 NRL)
B. Slater – 10 (#30 NRL)
C. Smith – 9
|J. Tedesco – 18 (#6 NRL)
L. Keary – 17 (#12 NRL)
C. Cronk – 10
J. Manu – 8
|Offloads||S. Vunivalu – 23 (#35 NRL)
B. Slater – 22
C. Munster – 20
C. Smith – 20
N. Asofa-Solomona – 19
|J. Tedesco – 25 (#30 NRL)
L. Mitchell – 20
J. Waerea-Hargreaves – 15
J. Manu – 15
R. Matterson – 13
While neither side excelled at tackle breaking this season, both had players who did. Josh Addo-Carr was always a handful for any defence and the retiring Billy Slater is not going to leave anything in reserve in this game.
However, James Tedesco and Latrell have been tackle-breaking crazy in 2018, ranking first and fourth respectively. They also get more than token support from Blake Ferguson.
Ferguson, now at his third club, will be joining the Eels in 2019. His line breaking, metre gaining and try scoring this season make you wonder why they are letting him go.
For the Storm, Addo-Carr has been their most effective attacking weapon, with Cam Munster and Slater being their most influential playmakers.
The loss of Cooper Cronk shines the light squarely on the Roosters’ other playmakers. And there is good news there. Cronk was playing a distinct third fiddle to Luke Keary and James Tedesco at the Roosters this season. While Cronk’s calm, controlling hand – as well as his superb defence – is sure to be missed, all is not lost for Sydney here by any stretch.
Playing in his seventh decider, Cam Smith knows how grand finals go. He has won four from six so far. His game management will be crucial.
Reprieved from an early retirement, you can bet that Billy the Kid will play this match as hard as he ever has. This bloke has been superb his whole career. Expect exactly that again one last time.
If the Storm are to win, ‘The Fox’ must get the better of Daniel Tupou. I reckon he can. Once he makes a break, he is very hard to stop.
The only concern I have for Teddy is that the occasion may get to him. However, his 13 rep games should have prepared him well for this.
He is the number one tackle breaker and the number two line breaker in the NRL this year. In his last two games, he has averaged 200 metres a game. If he repeats that, the Storm will be in trouble.
Latrell Mitchell’s return to the side makes Ferguson all the more dangerous. He knows how to turn a half chance into a try and Latrell makes lots of half-chances. So does Ferguson, for that matter.
There is a lot of pressure on Keary in this game. However, don’t forget he won a premiership playing for the Rabbitohs with the number six on his back. He is not even close to a rookie.
This will be the 36th game between these two sides. The Roosters have won 14, the Storm 21.
This is only the second finals match between the two sides. It has been split one apiece. The Roosters beat the Storm 26-12 at the old Olympic Park in Melbourne in the 1998 preliminary final. In 2015, the Storm beat the Roosters 20-18 at the SFS in the qualifying final.
They have never met in a grand final before.
At this venue
The sides have never met at ANZ Stadium before.
The Roosters have played 48 games at ANZ Stadium, winning 24 of them. However, they’ve won eight of the last ten they’ve played here.
The Chooks have played eight finals at this venue, winning just three – the last of which was their 2013 premiership victory.
Melbourne have played 20 games at this venue, winning 13. However, they’ve only won two of the last six – the last of which was last year’s premiership victory.
When it comes to finals at ANZ Stadium, the Storm have won six of the ten they’ve played.
The Storm’s overall record
This will be the Storm’s 558th game since they entered the competition in 1998. They have an amazing win rate of 64.8 per cent.
The Roosters overall record
This will be the Roosters’ 2378th competition game. They’ve won 1255 of them (52.8 per cent)
Craig Bellamy’s men have won eight out of their last 11 games. However, the three losses all came in the last seven rounds and all were to other finalists.
Sydney have won seven of the last 11. That includes three of the last five.
The Roosters only lost three of their remaining 13 games to storm home to the minor premiership. So their run has been timed well.
Against the other top four sides
The best indicator of form might be how the sides perform against the other contenders. This season, both sides have played six games against the other top-four clubs.
|vs Sharks (a)||4||14||vs Sharks (a)||28||10|
|vs Roosters (a)||9||8||vs Rabbitohs (h)||14||26|
|vs Rabbitohs (a)||20||30||vs Storm (a)||8||9|
|vs Sharks (h)||14||17||vs Rabbitohs (a)||18||14|
|vs Rabbitohs (h)||29||28||vs Sharks (h)||21||12|
|vs Sharks (h)||22||6||vs Rabbitohs (h)||12||4|
While the points scored by both sides is almost identical in these match-ups, the Roosters have a distinct advantage in points conceded. That gap has been widening. In the last two games, the Roosters have conceded only 16 points, whereas the Storm have conceded 34.
Overall statistically predicted score: Roosters 18.85 – Storm 18.7.
However, when the above scores against other top four sides are considered that margin spreads: Roosters: 16.96 – Storm 14.4.
These two referees have never officiated a match between these sides together.
Gerard Sutton has done one Roosters-Storm game. In Round 23 of 2017, the Storm beat the Roosters 16-13.
Sutton has controlled 33 Roosters games and they have won 19 of them (57.6 per cent). Four of those games have been finals matches and Trent Robinson’s boys have lost the last three of them.
Melbourne have had 39 games with Gerard Sutton, only losing 13 of them for a 66.6 per cent win ratio. Only two of those have been finals games but the last was their 2017 premiership triumph.
Ashley Klein has done two matches between these sides, the last of which was in 2015. The Storm won both.
Klein has reffed 35 Roosters games and the Tri-Colours have won 20 of them (57 per cent). However, they’ve won 13 of the last 18 he has controlled of theirs (72.2 per cent). Klein’s only Roosters finals match was their 2013 preliminary final win against the Knights.
The men in purple have had 38 games under Ashley Klein, winning 24 of them (68.6 per cent).
Klein has only controlled one Storm finals game. It was against the Knights in 2011 and they won 18-8
The case of the disappearing penalties
So far this season there have been 3267 penalties awarded by the referees at an average of 16.33 a game.
In the finals, that average has fallen to 14.4.
Sydney have had an average of 15.8 penalties awarded in their games so far this season, losing the counts 7.7 to 8.1 on average. During the finals, the average per game has fallen to 14.5 but the Roosters have won the counts on average 6.5-8.
The Storm have an average of 16.8 penalties awarded in their games so far this season, with them winning the counts 9.1 to 7.7 on average.
During the finals, that game average has fallen to 12.5 – 4.3 fewer penalties per game – with the Storm winning the count, receiving seven penalties and conceding 5.5 on average.
Either Ash Klein or Gerard Sutton have controlled all these sides’ finals matches so far.
Expect to see even fewer penalties in this one.
You can be sure that both teams will be very aware of this trend and the ten metres is likely to be skinny and the ruck very slow.
|Cameron Smith – 2006, 2007, 2009, 2012, 2016, 2017||Mitchell Aubusson – 2010, 2013|
|Jesse Bromwich – 2012, 2016, 2017||Jared Waerea-Hargraves – 2010, 2013|
|Dale Finucane – 2012, 2014, 2016, 2017||Jake Friend – 2010, 2013|
|Billy Slater – 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2012, 2016, 2017||Boyd Cordner – 2013|
|Will Chambers – 2009, 2012, 2016, 2017||Daniel Tupou – 2013|
|Kenny Bromwich – 2016, 2017||Luke Keary – 2014|
|Tim Glasby – 2016, 2017||Cooper Cronk – 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2012, 2016, 2017|
|Josh Addo-Carr – 2017|
|Cameron Munster – 2016, 2017|
|Suliasi Vunivalu – 2016, 2017|
|Curtis Scott – 2017|
|Nelson Asofa-Solomona – 2017|
|Felise Kaufusi – 2017|
|36 games of grand final experience||Nine games of grand final experience|
|22 games of winning grand final Experience||Six games of winning grand final experience|
The Storm are miles ahead of the Roosters in this regard, with 27 games’ more experience in premiership deciders.
Even if Cooper Cronk plays, the difference is 20 games.
Thirteen of the Storm’s 17 have already played in a grand final and are backing up from last year’s win. Only six of the Sydney side have played in a decider, the most recent of which was Luke Keary in 2014.
|Roosters||No. of NRL games||No. of rep games||No. of finals games||Storm||No. of NRL games||No. of rep games||No. of finals games|
|Sio Siua Taukeiaho||88||5||7||Tim Glasby||109||3||11|
|Jake Friend||237||0||16||Cam Smith||383||98||35|
|Jared Waerea-Hargreaves||198||23||14||Jesse Bromwich||201||24||18|
|Isaac Liu||133||8||11||Joe Stimson||38||0||2|
|Boyd Cordner||148||30||11||Felise Kaufusi||85||8||5|
|Victor Radley||27||0||2||Dale Finucane||159||0||18|
|Mitch Aubusson||262||0||18||Brodie Croft||16||0||2|
|Luke Keary||111||0||8||Cam Munster||88||6||10|
|Joseph Manu||44||0||2||Curtis Scott||38||0||5|
|Latrell Mitchell||70||3||3||Will Chambers||190||17||17|
|Blake Ferguson||191||14||9||Josh Addo-Carr||60||3||5|
|Daniel Tupou||133||15||13||Suliasi Vunivalu||69||7||8|
|James Tedesco||114||13||2||Billy Slater||318||61||31|
|Dylan Napa||120||8||8||Kenny Bromwich||122||3||12|
|Zane Tetevano||78||3||3||Christian Welch||60||0||4|
|Paul Momirovski||2||0||1||Brandon Smith||20||0||2|
|Ryan Matterson||59||0||4||Nelson Asofa-Solomona||76||5||7|
Cam Smith’s massive experience skews these figures a fair bit. However, as they stand the two sides’ total games experience and average games are almost identical.
The Roosters only have three players who have fewer than 50 games under their belt. The Storm have four.
Imagine being Paul Momirovski playing in a grand final in just your third game.
As with the grand final experience, the real difference between the two sides is in their relative finals experience. The Storm have an average of an extra four games experience per player.
There really isn’t a struck match between these sides. Both are defensive machines that will not relent.
Both are very well drilled and led too. Both have some outstanding attacking weapons at their disposal.
However, the three key factors for me are that:
While the Roosters have the skill to win this game – and I do not predict a blowout – I reckon the Melbourne Storm will be the first back-to-back premiers (in a united competition) since the Broncos in 1993.
Prediction: Storm 1-12