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The huge weekend of racing kicked off at Moonee Valley on Friday night, travelled up to Randwick for Super Saturday, and concludes with Underwood Stakes day at Caulfield.
Some gun horses have won the Underwood Stakes over the years, with plenty of short-priced favourites among them. This year’s race shapes as a more even affair.
Grunt is the favourite after his dominant Makybe Diva Stakes win, where he did beat five of his main rivals here. But that was at Flemington where he is now a dual Group 1 winner, while in his two starts at Caulfield, both earlier this prep, he performed more moderately.
If you were happy to trust what you saw at Flemington, when he really did charge away, then you’re happy to take any odds on him in this. I’m more inclined to think he’s a bit of a false favourite, which means there’s value to be had elsewhere.
Grunt.
Humidor is one of our best weight-for-age horses, but doesn’t seem capable of stringing wins together. When he wins he looks like anything, but is often too far back or does something wrong. He’s far from a straight-forward horse, but his talent is beyond doubt. He’s always a chance if he brings his best.
Comin’ Through ran well for sixth in the Makybe Diva, recording quick fractions after settling at the tail of the field. He’s one of these horses that keeps getting better every preparation, and he deserves his place in the Melbourne WFA races now.
Black Heart Bart led the Makybe Diva Stakes field along, which isn’t his ideal running position, and he resented it, putting in a below par performance. His best days are behind him of course, but he won this race two years ago and can still fill a place.
Tosen Basil and Pounamu were in the same race, but ran second last and last respectively. There’d need to be an enormous reversal of form for these horses to figure.
The Feehan Stakes provides three runners, to go with the six from the Makybe Diva – Homesman, Ambitious and Bonneval. They were all first-up that day, and can be expected to improve second-up into this.
Homesman was clearly the best of them, and appeals as a stylish horse in the Lloyd Williams stable. He beat Almandin the first time we saw him race in Australia, and was good in the Australian Cup, so he’s got the class to figure here.
Ambitious was second in the Tancred Stakes and third in the Doomben Cup (won by Comin’ Through) earlier this year, so has proven his WFA credentials. The extra 200m helps him here, as it does most, and his barrier will give him every chance for a box seat run. He can certainly figure here at value odds.
Bonneval won the Underwood last year, coming off a Feehan win, whereas this time around she didn’t make any impact from the tail of the field. The Valley can often claim a victim when the field bunches, and she was probably it there. The jury is out a little on her, so it’s time for her to put it together again. We know her turn of foot can be electric.
The remaining horse in the field is one of the favourites, Blair House. He’s trained by Charlie Appleby, who has proven himself in a short period of time to be the most astute traveler of horses to Australia we’ve ever seen. His strike rate is phenomenal, and Blair House is already a Group 1 winner in Dubai, over the unique distance of 1800m which must help.
Homesman should have an uncontested lead, which might be the key to winning the race. Team Williams like their horses to be on the pace and they can be tough to run down when on song.
Selections: 1.Homesman 2.Blair House 3.Humidor 4.Comin’ Through
The Guineas Preludes are the feature support races.
The Fillies Prelude has drawn close to a capacity field, but there is a standout rising superstar in Smart Melody that they all have to beat. She’s unbeaten from four starts, each more impressive than the last in some ways. Her win last start up the Flemington straight was full of authority, doing the work up front but still with a turn of foot to put them all away.
The Caulfield Guineas Prelude has also attracted a big field, but is a far more even betting race.
Caulfield race days. (AAPImage/George Salpigtidis)
There are plenty of good chances, but Native Soldier is one that has been a bit forgotten after beaten a beaten favourite in the Danehill at Flemington. He did all the work up the front and pulled up lame, but was still only beaten just over two lengths.
Back around a turn at Caulfield, where he bolted in two starts back, he’s an attractive betting proposition at double figures.
Prized Icon should be the bet of the day in the Inglis Cup, and if he can’t take this out given the weights scale, his winning days are probably behind him. His Chelmsford Stakes run behind Unforgotten is all he needs, and let’s not forget he’s a dual Group 1 winner, with placings in the Australian Guineas and another two at Group 1 WFA level.
Al Passem looks a great each-way bet in Race 2, with the Land of Plenty form looking the right reference after that horse placed in the Rupert Clarke Stakes last week. He’s a tough on-pacer that will give a great sight.