The decider is upon us! After a disrupted preparation on both sides, the Sydney Roosters and Melbourne Storm will fight it out for the right to be crowned premiers at Homebush on Sunday.
There have been disruptions a plenty in the last seven days, but it’s clear the Storm have come out with the better end of the stick.
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After getting the better of the Cronulla Sharks last Friday in a convincing performance during their preliminary final, the biggest questions stemmed around Billy Slater.
The fullback was instrumental in their grand final victory last year, his loss was felt heavily during the 2016 decider and no doubt, in his final game, he will have a key role to play again for Craig Bellamy’s side.
After being pinged for a shoulder charge during the match against Cronulla, he took his case to the judiciary on Tuesday evening and managed to beat the charge, freeing him up to play in the final.
The real disruptions have been at the Roosters though, who may not yet know who their halves pairing is for the contest.
With Cooper Cronk nursing a shoulder injury, he is expected to be given until the very last minute to prove fitness. If he can, the Roosters will be better off for it, although there are questions about Cronk lining up if he isn’t fully fit.
While the Roosters’ attack will suffer if Cronk isn’t there, it’s defence which they have built their finals charge on.
In the first week – a qualifying final against the Sharks – they fought their way to victory, while the preliminary final was a similary strong defensive effort against South Sydney last week.
The tri-colours didn’t let in a try across the 80 minutes, and while their attack wasn’t superb, their defence was inspirational.
Cronk or not, there is no question they will need more of that against the Storm, who have proven that, with Slater, Cameron Smith and Cameron Munster on the ground, they can run on points in a hurry.
There is very little to split the sides historically. The Storm hold a slight edge and have won four of their last five matches, but the Roosters, stemming back, have won 15 of the 35 matches played between the sides.
Nothing to read about in terms of finals either, with only the two matches played between the sides.
Incredibly, this is the first time the Roosters and Storm have featured in a grand final, despite one of the teams featuring in all but five grand finals since the NRL was born in 1998.
Overall record: Played 35, Storm 20, Roosters 15
Last meeting: Round 16, 2018 – Storm 9 defeat Roosters 8 at Adelaide Oval
Last five: Storm 4, Roosters 1
Record at venue: Never played
Record in finals: Played 2, Storm 1, Roosters 1
Record in grand finals: Never played
Sydney Roosters
1 James Tedesco, 2 Daniel Tupou, 3 Latrell Mitchell 4 Joseph Manu, 5 Blake Ferguson, 6 Luke Keary, 7 Mitchell Aubusson, 8 Jared Waerea-Hargreaves, 9 Jake Friend (c), 10 Siosiua Taukeiaho, 11 Boyd Cordner, 12 Isaac Liu, 13 Victor Radley
Interchange: 14 Dylan Napa, 15 Zane Tetevano, 16 Paul Momirovski, 17 Ryan Matterson, 18 Lindsay Collins, 19 Nat Butcher, 20 Sean O’Sullivan, 23 Cooper Cronk
As mentioned above, Cronk is racing the clock to beat a shoulder injury. The Roosters placed him on the reserves list on Tuesday when the side was named. Whether the star half being named there was a concession that he won’t play or not, or whether it was more to mess with Melbourne’s set-up and planning for the decider, it’s hard to tell.
Regardless, reports are that Cronk may not play. Mitchell Aubusson was originally named in his place, but it’s likely Ryan Matterson will move into the starting side to play halves.
The other option is to play Sean O’Sullivan, with the man likely removed from the bench young centre Paul Momirovski.
In other changes, Latrell Mitchell is back after sitting out last week with a suspension of his own for a crusher tackle during the qualifying finals.
(Photo by Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images)
Melbourne Storm
1 Billy Slater, 2 Suliasi Vunivalu, 3 Will Chambers, 4 Curtis Scott, 5 Josh Addo-Carr, 6 Cameron Munster, 7 Brodie Croft, 8 Jesse Bromwich, 9 Cameron Smith, 10 Tim Glasby, 11 Felise Kaufusi, 12 Joe Stimson, 13 Dale Finucane
Interchange: 14 Kenneath Bromwich, 15 Christian Welch, 16 Brandon Smith, 17 Nelson Asofa-Solomona, 18. Ryan Hoffman 19. Jahrome Hughes 20. Sam Kasiano 21. Cheyse Blair
At Melbourne, Slater has beaten his shoulder charge and will line-up in an unchanged side from the one which beat the Sharks at home last Friday.
That being said, all of Tim Glasby, Brodie Croft and Cameron Munster were battling injury problems earlier in the week. All three are expected to play, but Glasby is in the most danger of missing out with rib damage.
Billy Slater is the key
If there is a better big-game player than Billy the Kid, I’m yet to hear about him.
Whether it’s been in the Melbourne purple, the Australian green and gold or Queensland’s maroon, he has found a way to impress on the biggest stage of them all time and time again.
His performance in last year’s grand final as the Storm belted the Cowboys was outstanding, as it was all of last season and into this season.
He was brilliant in his final game on home soil last week, scoring two tries and guiding the Storm past the Sharks. While he still has Cameron Smith from the original big three (or big four), Slater is the key man.
He has the defensive organisation down pat, knows precisely where every pass is going to be thrown so he can pop up in support play and almost always finds a way to create opportunities out of nothing.
Slater is undoubtedly the best fullback of this era, and while James Tedesco is also an extremely strong player, he has his work cut out for him to win the battle of the fullbacks in the grand final.
I’ll be stunned if Slater doesn’t put in a performance worthy of winning the Clive Churchill, no matter what the conspiracies say.
Latrell Mitchell is back – can he keep his head?
The Roosters got through last week without Latrell Mitchell, and in a lot of ways, it was opposite centre Joseph Manu standing up who made that job easier.
Manu has been excellent this season, but his achievements have, for the most part, been swept under the radar thanks to Mitchell coming on like a freight train.
He made his Origin debut earlier in the season, and it’s been little surprise to see him kick on and become possibly the most dominant centre in the game alongside Greg Inglis.
But the problem for Mitchell is that there are still brain explosions in his game from time to time, whether it’s in attack or rushing up and doing something dumb in defence.
Against a side like the Storm in the grand final, the Roosters can’t afford Mitchell to be making mistakes out wide.
If he does, he and his team will be forced to pay for it, and while in most games he could make up for it with his excellent attacking skills, he may not get the opportunity to this time. The game, almost undoubtedly, is set to be played up the middle third and dominated in the forwards, with it ending up being low-scoring, meaning opportunities for the men out wide will be far and few between.
What if Cooper Cronk doesn’t play?
This has been the question on everyone’s lips all week (well, since Slater was cleared anyway). How do the Roosters respond if Cronk is out of the grand final?
There is no doubt to anyone it’ll be a struggle.
What Cronk reminded us last week is that he still has the ability to close out a game. His kicking is still among the best in the competition for those scenarios and when a team is out in front, there are few players you’d prefer steering the ship than Cronk.
(AAP Image/Dean Lewins)
However, if he is out, the Roosters lose plenty.
It’s no good him playing with a busted shoulder either. Even passing a medical test and playing at 75 per cent fitness, you can guarantee the Storm will give the shoulder a more thorough working out than any medical personnel.
With that being said, if he is out, the man likely to come into the halves is Ryan Matterson.
He doesn’t have the kicking game of Cronk, nor the creativity, vision or passing. He will add plenty defensively and in the running department, but the absence of their star half will lump the pressure on Luke Keary, and more than likely, Jake Friend to do more out of dummy half.
Friend has been up and down at best this season, while Keary has played his role, but may struggle to take it to the next level and guide the team around.
Effectively, if there is no Cronk, the Roosters don’t stand a chance of beating the Melbourne juggernaut.
The battle of the forwards will decide the game
As I’ve already mentioned a few times in this preview, the Roosters defence throughout the back end of the regular season and both of their finals games so far was nothing short of outstanding.
That being said, they won’t be able to squander a large share of possession and hold the Storm out, who are absolutely ruthless at times when it comes to finding the try line. And that’s not just on their dangerous wings either, but up the middle, out of dummy half or of course with Slater popping up in support play just about anywhere.
While possession and territory form the key to scoring points and getting a lead on the board, it’s down to the Roosters forwards to try and dictate the pace of the game, control the ruck and find a way to stop Melbourne.
You feel Dylan Napa is just one of many players who have to stand up and play better than they have all season. The Queenslander has had an up-and-down season, but can’t afford to be quiet in the final.
The same can be said for Boyd Cordner, who needs to follow up his Origin performances earlier in the year, while players like Zane Tetevano, Isaac Liu and Sio Siu Taukeiaho must simply rip in, run hard, tackle harder and find a way to control the Melbourne pack, which scarily has Nelson Asofa-Solomona on the pine.
With Cronk no certainty to play and almost certainly less than 100 per cent if he does, Slater beating his charge at the judiciary will be the difference-maker here.
(Photo by Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images)
The Roosters will keep it close as they always manage to do with their ridiculously good defence, but holding out Slater and the Storm for 80 minutes without their controlling half will prove impossible.
Storm by 6.
Date: Sunday, September 30
Kick-off: 7:15pm (AEST)
Venue: ANZ Stadium, Homebush, Sydney
TV: Live, Nine Network
Online: Live, 9Now
Referees: Ashley Klein and Chris Sutton
Be sure to join us here on The Roar from 7:15pm (AEST) this evening as we bring you all the best coverage of the game with our live blog and highlights of all the big moments and tries.
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