Turnbull Stakes Day is an important cog in the Melbourne spring carnival.
It’s the first weekend where racing has some space after football season has finished, and it’s the last Saturday before Caulfield, Moonee Valley and Flemington hold their world class carnivals of Group 1 racing.
The Turnbull Stakes itself is a key plank as we sneak ever closer to the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups, and the Cox Plate. Almost all of the runners in the Turnbull will find themselves one or more of those races in the coming weeks, usually as the main fancies.
Winx is the focus of all attention in this year’s Turnbull Stakes, as she always is in anything she contests these days. There’s really not much more to be said about her greatness. It’s hard not to think that she is the best horse any Australian alive right now has ever seen, or might ever see.
Winx. Kind of a big deal. (Photo by Mark Evans/Getty Images)
Winx won the Turnbull last year by 6.5 lengths, after winning the Warwick Stakes by 0.2 and the George Main by 1.3. This year, she has won those races by two lengths and four lengths respectively. There is no evidence to suggest that she is going anything except better than we’ve ever seen her before.
It was a beautiful sight to watch Winx extend down the Flemington straight last season, and all things being well, we will get that privilege again this week.
Grunt and King’s Will Dream are the nominal second favourites, neither of them in single figures.
Grunt is returning to the scene of his best performances, where he has won two Group 1’s including the Makybe Diva Stakes three weeks ago. He was something of a false favourite at Caulfield in the Underwood Stakes last start, and got beaten soundly accordingly. Expect an improved performances off a stronger tempo here.
King’s Will Dream should also appreciate a truly run race, and particularly reaching 2000m for the first time this prep. He is another horse that loves Flemington, and all three runs this campaign have been a flashing light for the Caulfield Cup, where he is being aimed to peak. Expect him to confirm that here.
Jon Snow ran third behind Grunt and King’s Will Dream in the Makybe Diva Stakes last start, in a strong performance. He was a run behind the other two there, being only second-up, and is a good horse. He’ll be honest again.
Youngstar is Winx’s stablemate, and a Group 1 winner in her own right after taking out the Queensland Oaks in May. She has run well in her two starts in Sydney, albeit not taking on weight-for-age races as many of her rivals here have been. Her presence will be felt, and is one of many who will love getting up to a mile and a quarter.
These are the key trifecta hopes, for those looking to play that way around Winx winning.
Protectionist at the Turnbull Stakes. (AAP Image/Tracey Nearmy)
Mighty Boss hasn’t finished closer than sixth in six races since winning the Caulfield Guineas at 100-1 last year. He showed something for the first time last start though, and may have turned the corner. Trap For Fools has been well placed to pick up some races recently, and is a handy middle-distance galloper. His main role here is leader.
Ventura Storm ran second to Winx in this race last year, but hasn’t won for two years. Tally is a nice horse, and usually finds his right race in a prep, but this isn’t it. Divine Unicorn is no more than an honest toiler, clearly outgraded here.
Selections: 1.Winx 2.King’s Will Dream 3.Youngstar 4.Grunt
The Bart Cummings, held over 2500m, has become a key race in the lead-up to the Cups.
Avilius has been one of the hot horses of the current racing season, peeling off three wins on end in eye-catching style. It’s the first time he’s been seen in Australia, and he’s made quite the impression. He’s right in the market for the Caulfield Cup, and currently shares favouritism for the Melbourne Cup.
Avilius has a good horse’s weight in this event, and taking on some smart rivals. He won’t have it all his own way, and is certainly short enough at just over even money.
Lloyd Williams always makes the Bart Cummings a target race, and as such has three runners here.
Midterm looks the pick of these after a fantastic run in the Metropolitan last week. He gets better each time we see him in Australia. Also on the quick back-up is Harrison, after his second in the Harry White Stakes at Mornington. He’s got the right form around King’s Will Dream and Brimham Rocks. Our Venice Beach also has claims, and has been looking for a longer trip.
Darren Weir is a master conditioner of stayers, and also has a multi-pronged hand.
Darren Weir just keeps on delivering. (Pat Scala/Racing Photos)
Yogi is Weir’s best chance, and is likely to jump second favourite behind Avilius. He’s run good races behind a number of smart stayers in the last year or so, and the form around his runs are strong. Megablast would need a wet track to be a winning chance, and Chequered Flag has found too hot a field to truly figure.
Looking at the other main chances, Jaameh has won four races at 2500m or more in the last 18 months, including twice at Flemington this prep. He won’t be tiring as much as others are at the end. Rising Red ran second in a New Zealand Derby in his three year old season, and has proven his staying credentials in this country too. His two runs back suggest he’s in for a career best campaign.
Vengeur Masque could be a nice roughie if looking for each-way value, he’s been known to pop up at odds. Wheal Leisure is the absolute bolter that could run a race, even if she has a knack of finding trouble or not doing everything right.
Selections: 1.Midterm 2.Avilius 3.Rising Red 4.Our Venice Beach
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