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As a punter who is always looking for an inside track, I have often found that the history of a Group 1, particularly the recent history, can be a useful guide to the likely outcome of a current running.
Information such as the age and sex of recent winners or the barrier from which winners jumped can help to narrow the choices, particularly in events that seem very open.
So can this historical perspective be applied to the Everest given that the race is about to be run for only the second time?
My initial answer to this question was that it can’t be, but after pondering the question further, I now think certain pieces of vital information might be available when considering last year’s running when looking for clues for what might unfold later this week.
What jumps out at me is the fact that only three runners from last year have made it back for a second tilt. Amazingly the three in question – Redzel, Vega Magic and Brave Smash – filled the place slots in 2017. What does this tell us?
Imagine an Olympic 100-metre sprint final in which only the medallists survived from the previous running four years earlier. While I have done no research on this, I would be confident to venture that this has never happened before and could never happen – at least one of the three would have fallen by the wayside or at least one of the vanquished from the past event would have matured and made the necessary improvement to challenge the established old guard.
(AAP Image/Brendan Esposito)
The facts that the top three from last year have all made it back for the 2018 Everest and no horse that finished fourth or worse has stepped up is absolutely astonishing. But what does it mean?
First and foremost it certainly suggests that the trainers of the three top placegetters from last year have done a tremendous job in getting them back fit and well for another try, particularly given that all in the trio were already mature and experienced campaigners at the time of last year’s running.
I would, however, strongly caution punters against reaching the conclusion that the big three are such outstanding horses that a repeat of last year is likely. History always has multiple possible interpretations.
The alternative conclusion suggested from a comparison between last year’s Everest and this year’s event is that 2017’s field was vastly inferior to that which we will see on Saturday. With hindsight last year’s lot seemed to be past their best or, oddly enough, inexperienced or unproven. Don’t forget that a trio of three-year-olds went around in 2017 and none came close to threatening.
This year is a very different story in that at least four or five of Saturday’s field have the ability and are in the right place in their careers to write a new chapter in Everest history.
Which ones? Find out in my follow-up analysis later in the week.
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