It’s finally here. The Everest isn’t the race that stops a nation, but it has certainly become the race that has captured the attention of a notoriously fickle Sydney sports market.

The Everest has been close to the forefront of racing consciousness for at least the last two months, and not just in Sydney either. As a Melburnian, I can attest that it has rarely been far away as a topic of discussion among racing folk, especially given almost half the field is trained out of Victoria.

The Everest is a beacon, not just in its own right, but as something that lights up most of the Group sprints through August and September too. Each week there was usually at least one Everest contender running, and this weekend’s main event has been sensational in giving each of these races context and meaning beyond the actual result.

Welcome to The Everest mega-preview.

1. Redzel

Trainer: Peter and Paul Snowden
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Barrier: 1
Career record: 27: 13-6-1
1200m record: 9: 4-1-0
Randwick record: 12: 7-2-1
Soft record: 3: 1-0-0
Heavy record: 6: 2-2-1

Redzel was clearly the dominant sprinter across the 2017-18 racing season, winning five races from eight starts, complemented by two seconds and a close-up fourth. The pinnacle, of course, was when he took out the inaugural running of The Everest.

The problem for Redzel is that the gloss does appear to be wearing off a little, and the big question is whether he is the same horse he was a year or so ago.

From November 2016 to March 2018, Redzel ran 11 times for eight wins and three seconds, with a combined losing margin of 0.4 lengths (!) in the races he didn’t win. In four starts since then, he’s been a little more inconsistent.

He lost the TJ Smith by two lengths and ran fourth in the Doomben 10,000 back in the autumn, won the Concorde Stakes first-up this spring, then missed a run with a minor setback before finishing a well-beaten fifth in the Premiere Stakes last start. It was the furthest back he’d finished in more than two years.

This time last year, Redzel was in the absolute zone, but it’s clear that he’s not the same this time around. Barrier one will allow him to jump well and hold a position wherever Kerrin McEvoy likes, whether that is leading or sitting just behind the speed. That will give him his best chance, but a few might have passed him in the last 12 months.

2. Santa Ana Lane

Trainer: Anthony Freedman
Jockey: Ben Melham
Barrier: 9
Career record: 29: 8-1-5
1200m record: 17: 5-0-3
Randwick record: 2: 1-0-1
Soft record: 9: 2-1-4
Heavy record: 2: 1-0-0

Santa Ana Lane has taken a quantum leap in the last year to go from a handy Listed and Group 3 horse to arguably take the mantle off Redzel as the best sprinter in the land. He’s peeled off three Group 1 wins in the last 12 months, each more impressive than the last.

First was the Rupert Clarke Stakes at Caulfield carrying the minimum weight on a good track. Next was the Goodwood at Morphettville, lumping 58.5kgs to victory on a soft track. He backed that up by winning the Stradbroke on the heavy up in Brisbane with a middle weight. Three different states, three different track conditions, a big spread in weights. He’s proven his class and versatility.

This campaign, Santa Ana Lane resumed with a fast-finishing fifth at Caulfield behind two in-form veterans in Ball Of Muscle and Voodoo Lad. Last time out was arguably the best run of his career, even though it was only a Group 2. He broke the Randwick 1200m record, albeit on a day which records fell like confetti at a wedding, but beat four of his fellow Everest contenders – Shoals, In Her Time, Trapeze Artist and Redzel.

Santa Ana Lane was always going get back, given his run-on style, and barrier nine will allow him to find his feet in the back, possibly with only Viddora behind him. He has shown the quality to round up good fields, and he’ll be strong late when others are tiring.

3. Le Romain

Trainer: Kris Lees
Jockey: Glyn Schofield
Barrier: 11
Career record: 29: 7-12-2
1200m record: 10: 3-4-2
Randwick record: 16: 5-7-0
Soft record: 6: 0-3-2
Heavy record: 6: 2-3-0

Le Romain brings a different formline into The Everest, dropping back from the 1600m of the George Main Stakes. Having not secured a start until late in the piece, and one of the few sprinter-milers in the race, he hasn’t been targeted to either The Everest or one of the 1200m Group 1s down in Melbourne.

Not an out-and-out sprinter, Le Romain is a dual Group 1 winner at 1600m, but has always been able to mix it with the best at the shorter trips. In fact, his record at the Randwick over 1200m is quite outstanding with two wins and three seconds from six starts.

His only miss at this course and distance was a fourth in the TJ Smith earlier this year, where the three in front of him were fellow Everest runners Trapeze Artist, Redzel and In Her Time. That was on a good track though, and he’s a better wet tracker than all of those. The more rain the merrier, as far as he’s concerned.

Le Romain won the Group 1 WFA Canterbury Stakes over 1300m on a heavy 10, beating no less than Chautauqua in the process. That’s the level he’s capable of when getting conditions to suit. Whether he gets that will be the key to his chances.

Barrier 11 doesn’t really do Le Romain any favours either, and he looks the most likely of any in the field to be caught in a three-wide position. He’s up against it, but is so honest that he’ll give a decent account of himself.

4. Trapeze Artist

Trainer: Gerald Ryan
Jockey: Tye Angland
Barrier: 6
Career record: 16: 6-0-3
1200m record: 8: 4-0-0
Randwick record: 7: 2-0-2
Soft record: 2: 1-0-0
Heavy record: 3: 0-0-2

Trapeze Artist is a somewhat enigmatic but quite brilliant sprinter that is capable of dominating any opposition on his day. He has an average winning margin of over two lengths in his career, and took out the Golden Rose by more than four lengths and the TJ Smith by two in his three-year-old season. They are two of the biggest half dozen races Sydney has to offer.

Behind Trapeze Artist in the TJ Smith were fellow Everest contenders Redzel, In Her Time and Le Romain, and there were good gaps back to them all. It was an explosive display and if he brings that sort of performance again he’s probably unbeatable.

Trapeze Artist is one of four horses equal at the top of the market, but the reason he’s not a standout favourite is that his two lead-up runs have been good without being outstanding.

First-up, he had to lump 61kgs on the heavy in the Theo Marks. Weights and track conditions were always against him, and he did well to battle into third.

Second-up in the Premiere Stakes won by Santa Ana Lane, he took on four of his Everest rivals and only beat one of them home. On face value, it’s hard to see him turning the tables on all of them, but he is something of a third-up specialist and the best runs of his preps have consistently been the third and fourth.

It’s clear Trapeze Artist has the ability to win. We have seen him peak for major assignments and deliver with authority. He will almost certainly take a midfield position from a gate that given him options, with plenty of on-pacers and backmarkers in the field, so he could well get the run of the race.

If he brings his A-game, he’s the one to beat. And you’re getting a good enough price to find out.

5. Vega Magic

Trainer: David and Ben Hayes, and Tom Dabernig
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Barrier: 7
Career record: 23: 13-3-1
1200m record: 17: 10-2-1
Randwick record: 1: 0-1-0
Soft record: 3: 2-0-0
Heavy record: 0: 0-0-0

Vega Magic isn’t quite the forgotten horse, given his place as equal favourite, but he is the one that’s had the longest break between runs coming into The Everest.

He was last seen being beaten less than half a length in the Memsie Stakes, a race where he hit the front early in the straight and was left a sitting duck for the swoopers. Of those sitting in the first four during the run, he was the only one left standing. The others all finished in the bottom three. He was a beaten short-priced favourite, but make no mistake, this was a good run.

First-up, Vega Magic won the Bletchingly Stakes in a true powerhouse performance. He dominated the race from the front and cleared away to win by three lengths. In second place was Voodoo Lad, who has won two Group 3 himself this campaign and has run into a number of Everest runners this spring.

Vega Magic is one of three returning runners from last year’s Everest, and in that he was the run of the race in finishing second. He raced upside down that day, charging home from the back of the field. Expect him to be closer to the front this time around, if not making all the running. He’ll certainly be in the first three.

He’s never raced on worse than a soft 6, but has two wins in that kind of ground. One of them was back in August last year, beating fellow Everest contenders Brave Smash and Santa Ana Lane carrying 6kgs more than both of them, but they have vastly improved since then while he has basically maintained his level.

Damien Oliver is one of two jockeys in the race that will likely decide how it is run. Does he want to lead at all costs, meaning he’ll have to cross both US Navy Flag and Redzel? Or is he happy to take a sit behind those two pace-makers? It’s a decision that will define the race, and possibly the fate of his horse.

6. Brave Smash

Trainer: Darren Weir
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Barrier: 4
Career record: 26: 4-8-5
1200m record: 8: 1-3-1
Randwick record: 4: 0-0-3
Soft record: 1: 0-1-0
Heavy record: 1: 0-1-0

Brave Smash has been a remarkably consistent sprinter since arriving in Australia from Japan. He’s had plenty of racing since then too, having 13 runs in a little over 12 months. Only three times has he finished outside the top three in that time, but has won only twice.

Of course, Brave Smash was a surprise placegetter in last year’s Everest, beaten only a length behind Redzel and hot on the heels of Vega Magic. Since then, he’s won the Group 1 Futurity Stakes, been placed at the highest level another three times, and he’s unquestionably going better this preparation than he was a year ago.

Brave Smash secured his slot a long way out, bringing together the dream team of Darren Weir and Chris Waller, and Weir has had the luxury of targeting this horse for the Everest from the get-go. There’s no hands you’d rather have your horse in when trying to peak for an assignment.

Weir has mapped out a strategy for Brave Smash to peak fourth up, with a perfect two weeks between each run, and the horse has held up his end of the bargain by improving each time he has stepped out.

First-up he was a very solid third over 1100m at Caulfield behind two in-form horses in Ball Of Muscle and Voodoo Lad, both specialists at the distance. Second-up, he took a trip to Sydney, was third again over 1100m behind Ball Of Muscle, and he could have finished closer with a bit more luck.

Last time out, Brave Smash was brought back in trip to 1000m in the Group 1 Moir Stakes, settled near the tail of the field and came flying home behind Viddora to run second. It was a beautiful top off before hitting 1200m for the first time this spring in The Everest, and Hugh Bowman was almost giddy after the race when thinking ahead to his grand final. He’s a super chance.

7. Home Of The Brave (Scratched)

8. US Navy Flag

Trainer: Aidan O’Brien
Jockey: Ryan Moore
Barrier: 3
Career record: 16: 5-2-2
1200m record: 9: 4-1-2
Randwick record: 0: 0-0-0
Soft record: 4: 3-0-1
Heavy record: 1: 0-0-0

US Navy Flag is the interesting runner of the field, given he’s yet to race on Australian shores. We go through this every year in the Melbourne Cup, trying to figure out where the raiders fit in, and now we see it for the first time in The Everest.

A 1200m specialist in the first year of his career when he was a champion two-year-old, the vast majority of his racing in 2018 has been over longer trips, stretching out to a mile and beyond.

However, his last run before travelling here was at the six-furlong trip, where he made all the running in the July Cup and beat them comfortably. Six lengths away there was Redkirk Warrior, dual Newmarket Handicap winner and Everest runner last year.

US Navy Flag has raced three times at Group 1 level at the 1200m trip, winning two of them. His only heavy track run was a long last, which is a concern, but his record on soft tracks is very good. Noise out of the stable suggests he doesn’t want it too wet. Whatever the opposite of a rain dance is, they’re doing it.

He’ll be up on the speed with Vega Magic and Redzel, and is a seriously talented horse. We’ve seen international jockey Ryan Moore come out here before and walk away with our biggest races. It could very well be on the cards again.

9. In Her Time

Trainer: Kris Lees
Jockey: Corey Brown
Barrier: 8
Career record: 21: 8-3-3
1200m record: 11: 4-2-2
Randwick record: 8: 3-0-2
Soft record: 7: 2-0-0
Heavy record: 0: 0-0-0

In Her Time is a late-maturing mare that has become one of the best and most consistent sprinters in the land. She didn’t race at two, wasn’t a star at three, and really only came into her own from the autumn of her four-year-old season. She kicked off that campaign with a win in the Breeders Classic and the Millie Fox, and hasn’t looked back since.

Since then she has taken on the best almost exclusively, with eight of her 11 starts at Group 1 level. She’s been so good that if we look back at her last two years racing, she’s only missed a place three times, and in two of those she still ran top five in Group 1s.

In Her Time is coming in with only one run under her belt, hitting The Everest second-up. It is the same formula used for her when she ran second in the Stradbroke in 2017, won the Sydney Stakes on this day last year, and ran third in the TJ Smith behind Trapeze Artist and Redzel in the autumn.

She resumed with a superb third in the Premiere Stakes behind Santa Ana Lane and Shoals, with Trapeze Artist and Redzel behind her, and she’s perfectly placed to get a great run from midfield. If there’s one horse you would guarantee will finish in the top half of the field, particularly if the ground isn’t too wet, then it would be her.

10. Shoals

Trainer: Anthony Freedman
Jockey: Tim Clark
Barrier: 2
Career record: 12: 7-3-1
1200m record: 6: 4-1-0
Randwick record: 3: 2-1-0
Soft record: 2: 2-0-0
Heavy record: 1: 1-0-0

Shoals has proven of the highest class basically from debut. She won her maiden race by an easy four lengths, and then at her second and third starts went straight to Flemington to win a Group 3, followed by a trip to Sydney to win at Group 2 level. It takes a special filly to do all that as a two-year-old.

Her three-year-old season was no less spectacular, winning three Group 1 races, over distances of 1200m, 1400m, and 1600m. Two of those wins were against older horses, which is no easy task for a filly. She won two of them racing right on the speed, and the other coming from the back of the field. Her versatility and ability are unquestioned.

Of course, the main question for star three-year-olds is how they come back at four. Shoals has removed any doubts that may have existed in her two runs back.

First-up, she was a good enough third at 1000m behind Nature Strip who broke the Moonee Valley track record. It was a decent enough resumption with her grand final over a month away.

Second-up, Shoals was awesome in finishing a narrow second behind stablemate Santa Ana Lane, but ahead of fellow Everest contenders In Her Time, Trapeze Artist and Redzel.

Shoals has done things that few can in such a short space of time, and four-year-olds are having a great season already. From barrier two, she can position quite a bit closer than she did last start in the Premiere, and will have every chance.

She’s not a superstar yet, but will be if she can claim The Everest. She could be the most bombproof horse in the race.

11. Viddora

Trainer: Lloyd Kennewell
Jockey: Joe Bowditch
Barrier: 12
Career record: 27: 9-7-1
1200m record: 9: 2-2-0
Randwick record: 0: 0-0-0
Soft record: 5: 2-1-0
Heavy record: 0: 0-0-0

Viddora is another sprinter in the field that appears to be getting better with age, maturing and improving with each new preparation. She won her first stakes race more than two years ago, but has really come into her own over the last 12 months.

Of her last eight starts, six of them have been at Group 1 level. She’s won two, the Winterbottom Stakes in Perth and the Moir Stakes at Moonee Valley, and run second in another couple. During this time she’s also won a Magic Millions sprint up on the Gold Coast. She is now a seasoned, well-travelled mare that has shown she can handle all tracks – starting at Randwick for the first time will be no issue for her.

Viddora was a bit of a street-corner tip heading into the Moir Stakes first-up, after some brilliant work in the lead-up, and she proved those canny punters astute in their assessments with an arrogant win over a hot 1000m field. She settled just worse than midfield, a touch closer than many expected, but it didn’t dull her sprint, rounding up the on-pacers that had set a hot speed.

Not many have a sharper finishing burst than Viddora, and if she gets the right run and is close enough as she was in the Moir last start, she is a genuine winning threat. Barrier 12 might see her get back to the tail of the field, but there is enough speed to set the race up for her if she’s good enough.

12. Graff

Trainer: Kris Lees
Jockey: Brenton Avdulla
Barrier: 10
Career record: 5: 3-1-1
1200m record: 1: 0-1-0
Randwick record: 0: 0-0-0
Soft record: 1: 1-0-0
Heavy record: 1: 0-1-0

Graff is the only three-year-old in the field, and it was great to see him get a slot because they always add something to any weight-for-age race.

He was unbeaten at two, albeit from only a couple of starts, and then won the San Domenico with authority first-up this campaign. He followed that up with a second in the Run to the Rose where he had a tough run but showed all his fighting qualities to only go down narrowly. That was run on a heavy track, so he showed that he could get through the ground okay.

Last time out, Graff ran third in the Golden Rose, only a length behind an emerging superstar in The Autumn Sun. That was over 1400m, and he appears better suited at the shorter 1200m, so can make his presence felt if things go his way.

To end up in an Everest at only your sixth race is a huge ask, and barrier ten doesn’t necessarily make things easier. That said, with the speed engaged in this race, the field should be spread out early enough that Graff should be able to slot into a midfield position. He’s talented, obviously, but this might have just come too soon.

13. Clearly Innocent (Emergency)
14. Dothraki (Emergency)
15. Jungle Edge (Emergency)
16. Pierata (Emergency)

17. Osborne Bulls (Emergency – has replaced Home of the Brave)

Trainer: James Cummings
Jockey: Tommy Berry
Barrier: 5
Career record: 12: 8-2-1
1200m record: 6: 5-0-1
Randwick record: 2: 1-1-0
Soft record: 2: 2-0-0
Heavy record: 0: 0-0-0

In a field of eleventh-hour entries, Osborne Bulls is the latest horse in The Everest. He took the place of Home of the Brave, who in turn only replaced Nature Strip a week earlier. This race has been drama-filled all the way through, and it’s still days away from being run.

At face value, it’s easy to look at the record of Osborne Bulls and write him off as not a worthy entrant in this field of some of the world’s best sprinters. His greatest achievements are winning two listed races, and he’s only been in Group 1 company once before – that was his last start fifth in the Rupert Clarke at Caulfield, a handicap. Now he’s taking on the highest company at weight-for-age.

But it’s been clear for some time that Osborne Bulls possesses the first-class turn of foot that could and should translate to better races.

First-up, he won at Caulfield carrying top weight, coming from near last with a paralyzing burst. Behind him there was Land of Plenty, who has since been Group 1 placed, and Oregon’s Day, a mare that is a WFA winner and has always been Group 1 competitive.

Yes, Osborne Bulls is up against it, but he’ll handle himself in the company, and won’t be disgraced.

18. Spright (Emergency)

Summary

It’s almost certain Vega Magic or US Navy Flag will be the leader, but the question is whether one of them will want to do so at all costs. If they both do, then it’s going to be on.

Redzel will push up to hold his rail position from barrier one, but coming off a setback and then a subpar performance, McEvoy will not want to burn him out to lead both Vega Magic and US Navy Flag. He’s proven he can win races taking a sit, and that’s what he’ll do.

I suspect Vega Magic will push on to lead, with Redzel behind him and US Navy Flag on the Snowden geldings outside.

Shoals might position up behind Redzel, and make the use of her good barrier. Expect her to be full of horse upon entering the straight. Tye Angland on Trapeze Artist may look at sitting outside Shoals, with cover from US Navy Flag. This might leave Le Romain posted three wide as he pushes forward from barrier 11.

Brave Smash and In Her Time will take midfield positions, with Graff and Osborne Bulls behind them. Osborne Bulls may find himself on the fence from gate five, which will leave Tommy Berry with some decisions to make approaching the home turn.

Santa Ana Lane and Viddora are the natural backmarkers, and both have drawn wide enough that they’ll suck back after jumping and look to reel in all the others. Viddora will be the one settling last. Both of these horses have a stunning turn of foot and will certainly show it off when they get the chance. They’re right in the race.

Selections

Soft: 1. Shoals, 2. Santa Ana Lane, 3. Vega Magic, 4. Trapeze Artist
Heavy: 1. Shoals, 2. Vega Magic, 3. Santa Ana Lane, 4. Trapeze Artist
Good: 1. Vega Magic, 2. Trapeze Artist, 3. Shoals, 4. US Navy Flag