Caulfield Guineas Day down in Melbourne and The Everest being run at Randwick has produced what will be the best day of racing Australia has to offer.
Barring one particular superstar mare, most of the best horses in the country are down to run at either venue.
Let’s see if we can find a few winners among them.
Caulfield Race 5 – Schillaci Stakes
The best sprinters in the country are up in Sydney for The Everest, with many of the B-set also running in the Sydney Stakes on the support card. It leaves the Schillaci Stakes at Caulfield a little thin on the ground for genuine winning hopes at weight-for-age.
Voodoo Lad is the rightful favourite, especially given his record at both 1100m and Caulfield. Snitty Kitty and Ball of Muscle will be hard to beat as well, given they are also distance specialists with a liking for the track.
The horse that appeals as over the odds is Missrock. On her day, she is a very good sprinter, just fractionally below Group 1 level. Her day is usually first-up, all four of her career wins have come under these circumstances, and she can add another one here in this Group 2 event.
In the last 18 months, Missrock has fun fourth in a Sangster where Viddora ran second, has run two seconds in Goodwood Handicaps won by Vega Magic and Santa Ana Lane, and run third in a Lightning Stakes hot on the heels of Redzel. All of these horses are engaged in The Everest, given they are some of the best 12 sprinters in the land.
Look for her to settle midfield or just worst, likely three wide with some cover. She’s every chance to win at an attractive price.
Bet – 11.Missrock – each-way $9 / $3 with BetEasy
Racing at Caulfield. (Photo by Vince Caligiuri/Getty Images)
Caulfield Race 6 – Thousand Guineas
The unbeaten Smart Melody is a short priced favourite in the Thousand Guineas, as she’s entitled to be having won five in a row from debut. Two starts back she dominated down the straight at Flemington, and followed it up by taking out the Thousand Guineas Prelude at Caulfield.
Smart Melody is a big powerful filly that shapes more like a sprinter than a miler or middle distance horse. She was getting very tired in the last furlong at 1400m last start in that Prelude, and now has to run a further 200m. There is an acceptable level of risk there to take her on.
Thrillster and El Dorado Dreaming filled the placings behind Smart Melody at Caulfield, and were both making good ground on the winner. El Dorado Dreaming ran the fastest last 200m and 400m of the race, while Thrillster had the fastest 200m split of the race, between the 400m-200m when she almost broke 11 seconds.
These two look likely to run a stronger 1600m than Smart Melody, and meet her a little better at the weights than they did last time. El Dorado Dreaming is already a Group 1 winner, and was only first up in the Prelude so is sure to take plenty of improvement. Thrillster and Smart Melody were having their third runs this prep.
El Dorado Dreaming looks superb value, and can be backed each-way with confidence.
Bet – 1.El Dorado Dreaming – each-way $7.50 / $2.60 with BetEasy
Saver – 4. Thrillster – win $6.50 with BetEasy
Randwick Race 6 – Sydney Stakes
The Sydney Stakes is the consolation race for those that didn’t quite make The Everest field, and has assembled a handy group of sprinters in its own right.
Pierata is the favourite at $4.60 with BetEasy, but has to drop back from 1600m to 1200m in two weeks, which is far from ideal. Tactical Advantage is next in line, and is a progressive sprinter but is taking on weight-for-age for the first time in by far the toughest field he’s faced.
Racing at Randwick (Photo by Mark Evans/Getty Images).
The Randwick track is a heavy 8 at the time of writing, and if that condition is maintained or deteriorates there’s only one horse that should be backed, which is Jungle Edge.
Jungle Edge has been Group 1 placed three times on heavy tracks, and this race is nowhere near that level. His last four runs have all been on good tracks, the last two of which were at Group 1 WFA and his runs have been solid.
Two back he was only beaten a tick over three lengths in the Memsie Stakes, and last start in the Moir Stakes he was a respectable seventh given it was over an unsuitable 1000m trip and he couldn’t go quick enough in the early stages to take his customary position near the lead.
If the track comes up heavy, Jungle Edge is the bet, and the worse the track the better he’ll go.
Bet – 3.Jungle Edge – each-way $5.50 / $2.10 with BetEasy
Randwick Race 7 – The Everest
The Everest is probably the toughest betting race we’ll see at the elite level, especially in a race containing only 12 horses. But, we have to have a go at it.
Redzel, Trapeze Artist and Vega Magic share the first line of betting at $7, all worthy of their place for various reasons, but we could also poke holes in them. Redzel and Trapeze Artists were comfortably handled by three Everest rivals last start in the Premiere Stakes, while Vega Magic hasn’t been seen for a while and is a little query if the track is rated heavy.
Redzel (AAP Image/Brendan Esposito)
The Anthony Freedman trained Shoals looks an attractive proposition with no obvious chinks in her armour.
She’s a winner, first and foremost, which can’t be underrated. She’s won seven of her 12 starts and been placed in four of those other races.
Two of Shoals’ wins have come at Randwick, so she’ll be very comfortable in the surrounds. Her distance record is outstanding, with four wins from six attempts, including the Group 1 Sangster in Adelaide earlier this year. She is also unbeaten on wet ground, going two from two on the soft (both Group 1 races) and one from one on the heavy.
Shoals can race forward, back or midfield, so Tim Clark will have all the options available from barrier two depending on how hot the speed is in the early stages. Her last start second in the Premiere Stakes, proving her class at WFA level, showed she is right on target to run a huge race in The Everest.
Bet – 10.Shoals – each-way $8 / $2.70
The Everest (yeah, the one from the Opera House ads) (AAP Image/Julian Smith)
Randwick Race 8 – Hill Stakes
The Hill Stakes has come up as a stronger race than usual this year given the prize money increase Racing NSW has put in. There are some quality gallopers in the field, but one stands out as clearly the horse to beat.
Egg Tart is ready to win again, and gets conditions to do exactly that. She won three races on heavy tracks as a three year old, on her way to being a dual Group 1 Oaks winner. Since then though, she’s raced mainly on good tracks.
Her last eight runs have been at Group 1 or Group 2 level, with seven of these on the good. The only time she struck a wet track was her only win in this time, by an easy two and a half lengths.
Egg Tart’s three runs this prep have all been very solid – she resumed with a length defeat to Comin’ Through at a trip well short of her best, followed it up with an eye-catching third behind Winx and Le Romain in the George Main, and then was solid behind Ace High in the Hill Stakes.
Egg Tart now hits a race where she might be the best horse in it, at a distance range she is most comfortable at, and on ground that advantages her more than her most dangerous rivals. Expect her to be winning.
Bet – Egg Tart – win $3.30 with BetEasy
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